主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2017, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 11-21.

• 世界政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

“一带一路”国家能源供给潜力与能源地缘政治格局分析

谢瑾1,肖晔1,张丽雪1,杨宇2   

  1. 1. 北京师范大学
    2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-29 修回日期:2017-08-14 出版日期:2017-12-15 发布日期:2017-12-13
  • 通讯作者: 杨宇
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金;中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所秉维人才计划项目

Evaluation of National Energy Supply Potential and Analysis of Energy Geopolitical Pattern in “the Belt and Road”

  • Received:2017-04-29 Revised:2017-08-14 Online:2017-12-15 Published:2017-12-13
  • Contact: 刘毅 金凤君
  • Supported by:

    ;Bingwei Excellent Young Scientists Program of IGSNRR,

摘要: “一带一路”地域包括了我国最重要的国际能源供给区域,也是我国能源通道面临风险最集中的地区。本文针对“一带一路”沿线12个石油供给国,基于与中国石油贸易合作的视角,从收益和风险两个维度分别构建评价体系,综合分析中美日俄大国的能源地缘政治格局与,构建中国国际石油合作收益—风险矩阵。研究发现:从合作收益来看,沙特阿拉伯与中国未来开展大规模石油合作收益最高,其次为俄罗斯。从风险的评价来看,伊拉克合作风险最高,其次为阿塞拜疆和伊朗。通过收益—风险矩阵,将所有国家划分为高风险—高收益,低风险—高收益,高风险—低收益,低风险—低收益四类,其中沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、科威特、哈萨克斯坦为高收益、低风险国家,可作为优选合作对象;阿塞拜疆、土库曼斯坦和文莱为高风险低收益国家,合作潜力最低。此外,“一带一路”地区面临着复杂的能源地缘政治形势,大国势力在此交织博弈,中国要在这种竞争环境下确保自身的能源需求与利益,对外必须在国家政策和地区合作上取得突破。

Abstract: “The Belt and Road” area covers China’s energy lifeline as well as the most centralized area of risk where China’s energy transport corridor is confronting. Based on the perspective of China's oil trade cooperation with 12 oil supply countries along “the Belt and Road”, this paper constructed an evaluation system from two dimensions of revenue and risk to do a hierarchy analysis respectively. Furthermore, this paper constructed an oil trade cooperation revenue-risk matrix among China and the relevant countries, and comprehensively analyzed the energy geopolitical pattern among the super energy consumptive countries including China, US, Russia and Japan. The study finds that from the perspective of cooperation-revenue, Saudi Arabia can bring the highest revenue on China’s future large-scale oil trade cooperation, followed by Russia. From the point of view of risk evaluation, the highest risk of cooperation lies in Iraq, followed by Azerbaijan and Iran. Through the revenue-risk matrix, all the countries are divided into four categories: high risk-high revenue, low risk-high revenue, high risk-low revenue and low risk-low revenue. The classification result shows that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait and Kazakhstan are low risk-high revenue countries, which can be chosen as the preferred partners; Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Brunei are high risk-low revenue countries with the lowest cooperation potential. In addition, “the Belt and Road” area is facing a complex energy geopolitical situation with intertwined powerful forces. To ensure the energy demands and interests in such a competitive environment, China is imperative to make a breakthrough in national policy and regional cooperation.

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