中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业产业内 贸易网络时空特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.03.2020556

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2018 TiVA数据库，结合增加值贸易和动态复杂网络，剖析中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业产业内贸易的时空特征及影响因素。研究发现：①中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业产业内贸易网络呈现规模逐步扩大、水平不断提高、国别差异性大的时空特点，整体网络具有联系紧密、效率提高、互惠增强的小世界格局特征。②“一带一路”沿线各国制造业产业内贸易增加值的个体网络呈现有效规模明显增加、有效规模率逐步提升、等级度和限制度显著降低特征，且中国在“一带一路”制造业产业内贸易网络处于主导地位、发挥枢纽作用。③实证分析显示人均GDP、制度质量、地理距离、空间邻接、贸易壁垒和工业化水平是影响中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业产业内贸易网络的关键因素，但各因素对制造业产业内贸易增加值网络的影响强度和方向存在显著的空间异质性。立足研究结论，结合后疫情时代的全球经贸格局，提出增加值贸易视角下促进中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业产业内贸易高质量发展的相关政策建议。

关键词: 产业内贸易, 增加值贸易, 动态复杂网络, “一带一路”, 制造业

Abstract:

China is speeding up the intra-industry trade in the manufacturing industries with the countries along the "Belt and Road".Based on the 2018 TiVA database, this paper combines the added value of trade accounting method and dynamic complex trade networks to analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics and influencing factors of intra-industry trade of manufacturing industry between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative.The research finds that: First of all, the intra-industry value-added trade network in the manufacturing industry between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative has the characteristics of the spatio-temporal traits of gradual expansion in scale, continuous improvement in level, and great differences among countries. The overall network is characterized by a small-world pattern featuring close connection, improved efficiency and enhanced reciprocity.Secondly, the individual network of the intra-industry added value of the manufacturing industry in the countries along the "Belt and Road" shows a significant increase in effective scale, a gradual increase in the effective scale rate, and a significant reduction in the level and restriction within the intra-industry value-added trade network of the manufacturing industry of the countries along the "Belt and Road"initiative. Moreover, China is occupying a dominant position and playing a pivotal role in the intra-industry value-added trade network within the " Belt and Road" initiative manufacturing industry.Thirdly, empirical analysis showed that the per capita GDP, the institutional quality, the geographic distance, the spatial adjacency, the trade barriers and the industrialization level are the key factors,which is affecting the intra-industry value-added trade network of the manufacturing industry between China and the countries along the"Belt and Road"initiative, However, there is a significant spatial heterogeneity in the strength and direction of the influence of each factor on the network of intra-industry added value of trade within the manufacturing industry among china and the countries along the " Belt and Road" initiative.Last but not least,further, based on the research conclusions, combined with the global economic and trade pattern in the post-epidemic era, and from the perspective of the added value of trade accounting method as the entry point, this article concludes relevant policy enlightenment and proposes some specific guidance recommendations to promote the high-quality development of intra-industry trade in manufacturing industries between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative from the perspective of the added value of trade accounting method.

Key words: intra-industry trade, value-added trade, dynamic complex network, "Belt and Road" Initiative, manufacturing

程中海, 屠颜颍, 孙红雪. 中国与“一带一路”沿线国家制造业产业内贸易网络时空特征及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 478-489.

Zhonghai CHENG, Yanying TU, Hongxue SUN. Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of intra-industry trade network of manufacturing industries in China and countries along the "Belt and Road"[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(3): 478-489.

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