主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

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15 April 2025, Volume 34 Issue 4 Previous Issue   
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The evolution of geo-relations in the Nile Basin in the post-Cold War era
Yibo JING, Zhenke ZHANG
2025, 34(4): 1-15.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230738
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The Nile Basin is at the forefront of China-Africa "the Belt and Road" cooperation and is one of the fastest growing regions in Africa. In recent years, the overall security situation in the Nile Basin has been gradually stabilizing, but transboundary water conflicts, boundary and territorial disputes, and ethnic conflicts occurred from time to time, which threatened peace and stability. Based on the event database GDELT, this paper used social network analysis method to examine the spatio-temporal evolution of geo-relations between the Nile Basin countries and between the Nile Basin countries and extraterritorial powers from January 1994 to June 2023, and analyzes its influencing factors. The results show that: ①The level of cooperation and conflict among countries in the Nile Basin has experienced four stages: growth, stabilization, rapid growth, and decline. Cooperation is the predominant type of geo-relations. ②From the perspective of geo-relations between basin countries, Sudan and Ethiopia are centers of the cooperation network; In addition, the main conflict zones have transferred to the northern part of the basin, with Ethiopia and Sudan as the core. ③From the perspective of geo-relations between basin countries and extraterritorial powers, the most prominent geo-relation is between the United States and Egypt.China has become the second largest partner country of basin countries. ④The evolution of geo-relations in the Nile Basin is affected by transboundary water resources benefit linkages, ethnic conflicts, boundaries and territorial disputes, strategies of extraterritorial powers, economic connectivity, and cultural integration.

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"Indo-Pacific" strategic goals of India and their impact on the security of the South China Sea
Genhai ZHANG
2025, 34(4): 16-26.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230867
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After Australia and the United States respectively put forward the constructive idea of "Indo-Pacific", India expressed a positive attitude towards it. India already has a potential "Indo-Pacific" plan in reality, which means India needs to integrate into the geopolitical system of the "Indo-Pacific", actively participate in regional affairs, and play a positive role by deepening maritime security cooperation with countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia, accelerating the pace of geopolitical expansion and so on to achieve more economic and strategic interests.The South China Sea is a significant area for the implementation of the "Act-East Policy" in India, which is closely related to the "Indo-Pacific" goal of India. From the geopolitical perspective, the Indo-Pacific region, as a strategic arc, includes the western Pacific region adjacent to the South China Sea, which has become a key area for active intervention by maritime forces such as the United States. It will inevitably affect the security atmosphere, maritime shipping, cargo trade, and relations with neighboring countries in the South China Sea. In terms of the current security situation in the South China Sea, the territorial disputes of some ASEAN countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam, as well as the intervention of countries outside the region such as the United States, India, Japan, and Australia, have led to a complex security situation in the South China Sea, and the prospect is not optimistic. As a geographically adjacent country to China, India's expanding geopolitics in the South China Sea and its potential strategic combination will inevitably stimulate more exotic countries to deeply intervene in the South China Sea including Britain and France. Therefore, China should actively take corresponding measures, such as strengthening strategic dialogue, improving defense capabilities, building the community with a shared future for the sea, promoting the construction of "the Belt and Road Initiative" and so on, and take preventive measures in advance to maintain the security environment in the South China Sea.

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Simulation study on land use in Guangxi section of the Sino Vietnamese border region from the perspective of national security
Chengxin MO, Tianneng HUANG, Weisheng XIA, Qingyao FAN, Hao ZHOU
2025, 34(4): 27-44.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230802
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The exploration of borderland land use patterns and trends is crucial for maintaining borderland security and promoting high-quality border development. This study employed an improved K-means clustering algorithm for spatial geographic zoning and utilized methods such as kernel density analysis and Geodetectors to analyze trends in land use change in the Guangxi section of the China-Vietnam border. Examining current border security issues, two scenarios were set up for land use simulation and prediction: natural development and national security. The results indicate that: ①The simulation accuracy significantly increased after spatial geographic zoning, and the conditions set for the simulation align with the research needs of national security strategic development. ②Under the natural development scenario, phenomena such as land abandonment and destructive planting continue to exacerbate the vacuity along the border. Under the national security scenario, construction land maintains a higher growth rate, and the trend of reducing permanent basic farmland and medium to high canopy density forest areas is contained. ③The differences in land use between the two scenarios are mainly reflected in three types of land: farmland, medium to high canopy forest land, and construction land. The contradictions between social change, economic development demands, and land use methods have a subtle impact on the security of the Guangxi section of the China-Vietnam border. ④In the future, land use in the Guangxi section of the China-Vietnam border should be guided by national security strategies, through implementing differentiated spatial controls of borderland use and in-situ urbanization of border villages, leading to safe and stable development of the border area.

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Study on the evolution of global new energy vehicle trade network structure and its competitive relations
Pei XU, Weiran WANG
2025, 34(4): 45-58.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230633
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By employing complex network analysis methods, this study explores the overall network characteristics, regional community features, and core country competitive relationships of global NEV trade from 2017 to 2022. The findings reveal: ①The spatial structure of the global NEV trade network exhibits "small-world" characteristics, with strong node heterogeneity following a power-law distribution, satisfying the features of a scale-free structure. ②The global NEV trade network can be divided into five regional communities. The Eurasia-East-West Africa community (Community 2) and the Western Europe-East Africa community (Community 5) are highly centralized single-core communities with strong intraregional trade dependence. The North America-Western Europe community centered around Germany and the US (Community 1) and the Asia-East Europe-South America community centered around China and Japan (Community 3) have dense intracommunity trade relations. The former displays distinct rich-club characteristics, while the latter exhibits pronounced disassortative mixing features. Within the Southeast Asia-Northeastern Europe community (Community 4), the export markets of the two core countries are similar, indicating significant competitive relations. ③In the core-periphery structure of the trade network, the number of core countries has risen, forming a competitive landscape among six key countries: Germany, the United States, Belgium, the UK, China, and Japan. The intensity of internal competition within Asia has decreased, but external competition with Europe has intensified.The internal competition within Europe continues to grow.

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Research on the pattern of relations between China and major country in the world
Shangyu DU, Shihong DING, Qingshan YANG, Jian LIU, Yongxiang CHEN, Колосов Владимир Александрович
2025, 34(4): 59-71.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230730
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As global international relations issues become increasingly complex, it is of great significance to scientifically explore the pattern of China's relations with other major powers for the development of China's status as a major power and the formulation of its foreign policy in the era of unprecedented changes. This paper establishes a multi-dimensional index system for major country relations and uses the event data analysis method to analyze the characteristics of the relations pattern between China and major powers worldwide. The results show that: ①The index value of China's relations with major powers in the world is generally low, showing a "pyramid" structure, showing different growth ranges from 2002 to 2019, and the order of relations between major countries is unstable and the inter-annual difference is large. ②Under different factors, the relations between China and the world's major powers vary greatly among the major powers, and the relations between political exchanges, economic relations, and cultural exchanges between major powers are manifested as a positive "uplift", negative "collapse", "Erlenmeyer flask" and a single-center "uplift" spatial pattern. ③There is a general "short board effect" in China's connections with the world's major powers, and the pattern of relations is divided into five types: "political cold economic and hot culture" type (China and America; China and Japan), "weak political economy and culture are better" type (China and Britain), "political hot economic culture is better" type (China and Russia), "economy hot political culture average" type (China and Germany; China and Pakistan), "political economy and culture average" type (China and France; China and India). Based on this, China should actively promote the construction and dissemination of a community of human destiny and a new type of great power relations, and look for different points of focus for the different types of ties between China and the world's major powers to differentiate its handling of great power relations.

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Evolutionary characteristics and trends of the moderate spatial scale of countries in a geo-economic perspective
Chenhui HU, Cheng JIN, Yuqi LU
2025, 34(4): 72-83.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230668
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From a geo-economic perspective, with the help of the theory of marginal effects in economics and mathematical analysis methods to construct an econometric model, this paper explored the evolutionary characteristics and trends of the moderate spatial scale of countries globally. The results show that: ① From 1990 to 2020, economic globalization expands overall global economic efficiency and increases the costs of spatial expansion. The evolutionary trends of countries' moderate spatial scale are relatively consistent, while the optimal moderate spatial scale of countries tends to decrease. ② In the case of the Group of Twenty (G20), the evolution of the moderate spatial scale of countries shows three trends, namely, a sharp decline followed by a slow decrease, a sharp increase followed by a slow increase, and a decline followed by an increase, diverging into two evolutionary phases, namely, the phase of the bipolar world order and the multi-polar world order. ③ The importance of the spatial scales of countries has declined, and industrial division of labor has become an important driver for achieving national economic development. The overall global economic order will remain stable in the long term, and economic disparities between countries will gradually diminish.

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Study on the evaluation of comprehensive rural development level and obstacles in countries worldwide
Yiyong CHEN, Ling ZHU, Wuyang HONG, Renzhong GUO
2025, 34(4): 84-96.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230690
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Based on the connotation of rural development, a global evaluation index system for the level of comprehensive rural development was constructed, and the level of comprehensive rural development and the degree of obstacles in 175 countries and regions around the world were analyzed by using the AHP-entropy weight method, the TOPSIS method and the obstacle-degree model, as well as exploring China's level of development and the indicators that lagged behind those of major developed countries. The study concludes that at the global level, the differences in the level of integrated rural development among countries are mainly reflected in agriculture and rural development. The classification of the level of integrated rural development is both related to and different from the classification of the country's GDP per capita, HDI and urbanization levels. The main impediments to rural development in each country include the level of agricultural mechanization, agricultural land productivity, cultivated area per laborer, number of doctors per 1,000 people, and per capita income of farmers. The level of agricultural production inputs and the quality and efficiency of agricultural outputs are the core factors constraining rural development in most countries. China's rural development is at the middle level of the world, and the level of comprehensive rural development lags behind the level of GDP per capita and urbanization, and there is still a big gap between rural development and farmers' lives and developed countries. Based on the findings of the study, we propose strategies to improve China's comprehensive rural development in terms of agricultural and rural development and the improvement of farmers' living standards.

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Analysis and prediction of the coupling between the manufacturing industry upgrading and its carbon emission efficiency in China
Li HUANG, Yujie GAO
2025, 34(4): 97-110.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20222430
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China's manufacturing industry is facing the dual challenges of industrial structure upgrading and dual carbon target constraints, as well as the long-standing regional temporal and spatial differences between the two, which have a great impact on the implementation of the strategies of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction. Based on this, this paper firstly uses the ratio method and the Super-SBM model to measure the level of industrial structure upgrading of manufacturing industries and their carbon emission efficiency in each province and region in China from 2005 to 2019. Secondly, the paper analyzes and predicts the synergy between the industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency by using the coupling coordination degree model and the gray BP neural network model respectively. The results show that: ① During the study period, the degree of coupling and coordination between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission efficiency of the manufacturing industry improved slowly, and the level was low, showing a spatial pattern of "high in the east and low in the west", while the coupling coordination degree of Guangdong and Jiangsu fluctuates greatly. Regional differences in factors such as foreign trade, R&D level and energy consumption structure have an impact on the degree of coordination. ② It is expected that in 2025, the coupling coordination degree will continue the spatial pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest, but the heterogeneity will increase. The specific eastern and central regions have a good trend of manufacturing upgrading and emission reduction, and the central region will give play to its geographical location advantage and smooth the domestic general circulation, while the western region is still in the lagging area of coordinated development, and provinces such as Gansu will be in decline. Therefore, this paper suggests that: each province and region should make targeted improvements according to the current characteristics, and may adopt the strategy of unilateral or both breakthroughs to promote the benign and coordinated development of manufacturing industry structure upgrading and carbon emission reduction.

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Spatial spillover effect of digital inclusive finance on county tourism economic growth and its spatio-temporal heterogeneity
Anle LIU, Chengyue YANG, Qingzhong MING, Jin TIAN, Baoyi LU, Jinfeng WANG
2025, 34(4): 111-126.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230768
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Digital inclusive finance can effectively ease the financial service dilemma of county tourism development, consolidate the practical achievements of tourism poverty alleviation and enhance the efficiency of Rural Revitalization. This paper expounds the internal mechanism of spatial diffusion and conduction effect of digital Inclusive Finance enabling county tourism economic development, takes 88 counties in Guizhou Province as the research unit, calculates the tourism economic growth index of 88 counties in Guizhou Province from 2014 to 2020 based on the improved entropy method, and uses the digital inclusive finance index of the Institute of finance of Peking University, Spatial econometric analysis model (SPDM) and spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression model (GTWR) are used to verify the spatial spillover effect of digital inclusive finance on county tourism economic growth and its spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The results show that: ① the digital inclusive financing and the county tourism economic growth index in Guizhou Province show significant spatial imbalance, and there are significant positive spatial dependence and spatial autocorrelation between them; ② Digital Inclusive Finance has a positive spatial spillover effect on county tourism economic growth, but the indirect spillover effect coefficient of counties in Guizhou Province is significantly lower than the direct effect at the current stage. By replacing variables and space matrix, the conclusion is still robust. ③ From 2014 to 2020, the positive effect of digital Inclusive Finance on tourism economic growth generally maintained an upward trend, and the heterogeneity of spatial spillover effect changed from a single core circle structure centered around Guiyang-Kaili to a multi-core circle structure centered around Guiyang-Zunyi-Kaili.

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Spatial feature of returning people flows in the Spring Festival and its impact on urban consumption: An empirical study of 93 major cities in China
Minjian LI, Xiao QIN, Feng ZHEN
2025, 34(4): 127-138.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230166
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In the process of rapid urbanization in China, population urbanization is relatively lagging behind, so the floating population occupies a large proportion of the urban permanent population. In the context of people-oriented new urbanization and promoting the recovery and expansion of consumption, it is necessary to identify the dimension and degree of the impact of the floating population on the consumption economy, which helps formulate differentiated development policies based on the actual conditions of cities. This study selected 93 major cities with large population or economic scale and strong centrality. Based on Baidu migration data, the scale of floating population was represented by the actual scale of returning people during the Spring Festival by an innovative calculating method. This study explored the spatial feature of returning people flows, and quantified the impact of returning people flows on the consumption by constructing a multiple linear regression model. There are 3 main conclusions. ① a positive correlation is found between the number of returning people flows and the destination cities, and the cities in Pearl River Delta or Yangtze River Delta lead the way. The average distance of returning is 549 km, which reflects the size of the urban attractive area. ② natural terrain features and regional economic patterns together affect the standard deviation elliptic oblateness of destination cities. ③ there is a significant positive correlation among GDP, the size of urban permanent population, the proportion of tertiary industry and the total retail sales of consumer goods, and there is a significant negative correlation among the size of returning people flows, the standard deviation elliptic oblateness and the total retail sales of consumer goods. Moreover, GDP, the size of urban permanent population and returning people flows have the most prominent influence. Finally, this study puts forward optimization suggestions, based on the positive or negative effect of urban permanent population and returning people flows in each city.

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Spatio-temporal patterns and determinants of highly skilled talents in China, 2010-2020
Rongwei WU, Yuanxin WANG, Houyin WANG, Li CHEN
2025, 34(4): 139-151.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230681
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Optimizing the spatial distribution of talent resources plays an important role in achieving coordinated regional development. Based on the county data of the two national censuses in 2010 and 2020, the spatio-temporal pattern of China's highly skilled talents is sketched during the 10-year period, and a Beta regression model is used to identify the influencing factors of the spatial distribution of highly skilled talents. The results show that: ①Hu Huanyong line is a significant demarcation line for the distribution of high-skilled talents, and the proportion of high-skilled talents in the northwest side of Hu Huanyong line is generally higher than that in the southeast side, and it is relatively stable in ten years. ②The proportion of highly skilled talents in the southeast side of the Hu Huanyong line shows a "core-edge" spatial structure decreasing from the city district to the surrounding neighboring counties, while the northwest side of the line generally shows a homogeneous character, and the spatial differentiation is not significant; The proportion of highly skilled talents shows a hierarchical differentiation from municipalities, provincial capitals, and municipal districts of planned cities to prefecture-level municipal districts, county-level cities, and counties, decreasing step by step; The spatial pattern of the proportion of highly skilled talents in China shows a generally stable and locally changing trend, and the changing counties are mainly concentrated in the Northeast, the Yangtze River Delta, Tibet and other regions; ③The administrative level of counties, GDP per capita, urbanization rate, non-farming employment, proportion of tertiary industry, average altitude, temperature difference, and NDVI together affect the distribution pattern of the proportion of highly skilled talents.

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A study of the human-sky (airspace) relationship's evolution based on boundary object: Expression form and connotation
Yaqing DONY, Zi LU, Yinuo ZHANG, Xiaohui DU
2025, 34(4): 152-164.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230322
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As early as the 1920s, scholars predicted that human aerial mobility would conquer time and space and shape culture, politics, and even the social economy with new geographic imaginings. However, few results on the evolution of the human-sky (airspace) relations have been published. It is related to too many subjects, too abstract behavior, non-physical ubiquity of practice objects, lack of relationship allocation and coordination means. Based on the creation and use of boundary objects and the logic of cross-border communication, this paper reviewed the research hotspots of human airspace practice, aiming to explain the evolution of the human-sky (airspace) relationship. According to the study: For more than one hundred years, the human-sky (airspace) relationship has evolved continuously in dealing with a series of airspace utilization contradictions. The evolution of the human-sky (airspace) relationship shows the forms of sky-ground boundary breakthrough, airspace ownership boundary establishment, aviation control area boundary demarcation and U-Space boundary setting, respectively. It also shows the potential of outer space to change the upper boundary of airspace. The connotation of the evolution of the human-sky (airspace) relationship is the multi-dimensional transformation of resource utilization in the active domain: That is, it has experienced the transformation from looking up imagination to looking down observation, from unbounded use to national ownership constraints, from disorderly flight to standardized airspace use, and is undergoing the transformation of UAS wanton shuttle to U-Space approach control, and the competitive development of outer space has greatly stimulated the vision of human travel and habitation. From a disciplinary perspective, airspace is another kind of spatialized understanding under the influence of human society and economy. The human-sky (airspace) relationship reshapes the structure of geographical things in multiple ways and multi-level vertical patterns, and carries the exploration of the development and utilization of mobile and amorphous resources. The study of the evolution of human-sky (airspace)relation has the significance of geographical epistemology and geographical phenomenology, which is helpful to enrich the study of non-physical interaction in geography.

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Research on the measurement and influence mechanism of rural households' livelihood resilience in rural tourism areas: Taking Shancha Village, Tangkou Town, Huangshan City as an example
Huanhuan WU, Linrong FU, Donghua LI, Yan XU, Lin LU
2025, 34(4): 165-179.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230252
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Rural tourism has become an important driving force for the implementation of the national rural revitalization strategy and the promotion of new-type urbanization in the new era. By constructing a framework for assessing the livelihood resilience of rural tourism farmers, the level of livelihood resilience of different types of farmers was evaluated using the barrier model, and the inhibitors and mechanisms affecting the livelihood resilience of rural households were explored. Conclusions ① In terms of the overall resilience of farmers, the livelihood resilience of farmers in the study area is mainly at medium and low levels. There are great differences among different types of farmers, among which is that the tourism franchise type has the highest livelihood resilience and the agriculture-oriented type has the lowest.② From different dimensions, learning ability has the greatest impact on farmers' livelihood resilience and buffering ability and self-organization ability play a significant role in tourism franchise and worker-oriented farmers.③ Family education input, number of technical training, participation in industry organizations are the main obstacles affecting the livelihood resilience of all rural households. Farmers with different livelihood strategies should adjust their livelihood mix according to their livelihood resilience, and select the best livelihood strategy to achieve the coordinated development of socio-ecological systems in rural tourism areas. Finally, suggestions for future research on the livelihood resilience of rural tourism farmers are proposed.

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Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing mechanism of empty-nest elderly households in the Yangtze River Delta
Kui YING, Yaohua KUANG, Jinhong DING, Junfei LI
2025, 34(4): 180-192.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.04.20230531
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As population aging intensifies in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD), the issue of empty-nest elderly households has become increasingly prominent, presenting significant challenges to regional demographic development, family structures, and socioeconomic stability. Based on census data of elderly households in the YRD from 2000 to 2020, we quantified empty-nest prevalence and map its spatial distribution, then applyed structural equation modeling (SEM) to identify the drivers of the spatial distribution of empty-nest. The study concludes that:① All three empty-nest types (overall, solitary, and couple) showed temporal increases but distinct spatial distributions. The spatial distribution of overall empty-nest prevalence has transitioned from a latitudinal gradient (higher in south) to a bimodal distribution (peaks in north and south, trough in center). The solitary empty-nest elderly households show a transition from high levels in the north and south to clusters of low values in the middle. The couple empty-nest elderly households have shifted from a central-low/peripheral-high spatial pattern to uniformly elevated levels across the entire region. ② The couple empty-nest elderly households have had a greater impact on empty nests over time, but the regional effects have varied widely, with Shanghai and Jiangsu always dominated by couple elderly households, Anhui shifted from couple elderly households to solitary elderly households. ③ The factors influencing the level of empty nests in elderly households can be categorized into two dimensions: endogenous and exogenous. Among the endogenous variables, population aging emerges as the pivotal factor, while among the exogenous variables, economic development exerts the strongest mediated effect through aging. Therefore, YRD urgently needs to strengthen the institutional framework for integrating elderly care services, enhancing multilateral, diversified, and multi-modal cooperation and resource sharing. This will facilitate the realization of the "Healthy Yangtze River Delta" policy objective and mitigate the socioeconomic challenges posed by the empty-nest elderly household phenomenon.

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