主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

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15 May 2026, Volume 35 Issue 5 Previous Issue   
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National structural power and security risks in the global new energy equipment trade network
Aiping WU, Xiaoping ZHANG, Wenhua LIAN, Jiawen SONG, Zhongjing PAN
2026, 35(5): 1-18.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20250730
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As global efforts toward carbon neutrality accelerate, trade in new energy equipment has become both a new driver of international trade growth and a key arena of strategic competition among the major powers. This study examines the structural power and security risks of countries within the global new energy equipment trade network. Using complex network analysis and structural power theory, we assess the distribution of national power, construct a trade security index to evaluate import and export vulnerabilities, and apply a cascading failure model to simulate the dynamics of risk transmission. The results show that: ① Structural power in global new energy trade is multidimensional and unevenly distributed. Germany, the United States, China, and France exhibit strong direct, leverage, and prestige power, while the United Kingdom, the United States, the Netherlands, and South Africa possess significant channel power, indicating partial misalignment between power dimensions; ② Structural power shows incomplete consistency with import/export security: Import security is more closely linked to structural power than export security, suggesting that greater power does not necessarily ensure stronger export resilience; ③ The global trade network remains robust under random shocks but is highly sensitive to disruptions in key countries such as China, the United States, and Germany, where cascading failures display a "high-concentration, long-tail" pattern; and ④ Risk propagation differs across leading economies. U.S.-induced shocks show a "deep-layer amplification" pattern, whereas those originating from China exhibit "broad-coverage, rapid-propagation" pattern. The trade networks for photovoltaic and wind power exhibit extensive reach and multi-level structures, while nuclear power equipment networks demonstrate limited dissemination. Significant heterogeneity exists across industries. This study aims to provide theoretical support and policy reference for global energy governance and trade security.

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Geoeconomic resilience: Concept, framework, and case analysis
Zeqi ZHOU, Zhiding HU, Sha GUO, Xuezhong JIANG
2026, 35(5): 19-34.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240272
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Amidst great-power strategic competition, the weaponization of economic interdependence poses severe challenges to national security. However, existing research—whether focused on the sender states of geoeconomic coercion or grounded in traditional economic resilience theories—fails to adequately explain how target states respond to deliberate geoeconomic attacks, revealing a notable theoretical gap. To address this, this paper proposes the concept of "geoeconomic resilience" and constructs a dynamic analytical framework. This framework defines geoeconomic resilience as the comprehensive capacity of a target state to safeguard its core geostrategic interests through shock absorption, adaptive adjustment, and strategic transformation following deliberate geoeconomic coercion. It emphasizes the critical moderating role played by core national endowments such as the industrial system, market size, and governance model. Through a case study of China in the context of China-U.S. rivalry, the research finds that by virtue of its complete industrial system and vast domestic market, China's geoeconomic resilience has proven robust in securing its baseline interest of national survival. Nevertheless, in pursuing the higher-level goal of autonomous development, it faces a mixed picture of both achievements and persistent challenges.

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The role and development strategies of China in global soybean trade from the perspective of social network
Lu'an WANG, Junnan DING, Jing ZHANG
2026, 35(5): 35-48.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20250125
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Facing the structural contradiction of fluctuations in the global soybean supply chain and China's import dependence, this research is based on the data of the United Nations Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) from 2000 to 2023, and uses the Social Network Analysis (SNA) method to deconstruct the network topology structure. Reveal the role positioning and evolution laws of China. Main research results show that: ① The scale of the global soybean trade network continues to expand, and the closeness between nodes is getting stronger and stronger, presenting a "core-edge" structural feature. North and South America (Brazil, the United States) and Asia (China, Japan) form "production-consumption" dual core, while Europe, with its port hubs (the Netherlands, Belgium), becomes a transshipment node across continents. ② China's weighted import centrality has consistently ranked first, but its imports are highly concentrated in Brazil and the United States. Its betweenness centrality ranks fifth, and its pricing power is weaker than that of the United States. Brazil's weighted out-degree centrality has risen to the top globally, while the United States has dropped to the second place. ③ The trade network density of core countries reached 0.522, with an average path length of 1.469, presenting a highly interconnected feature. The Sino-US trade war in 2018 accelerated the diversification of China's import sources, but did not fundamentally change the risk of "path dependence" in the supply chain. The research provides a comprehensive path of "network optimization-institutional innovation-technological empowerment" to solve the predicament of "scale dependence-power deficiency" in China's soybean industry, and helps implement the food security strategy.

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Norm competition and identity deconstruction in climate policy disagreements under the "Pacific Family" narrative
Qingjun JIA
2026, 35(5): 49-59.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20250803
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The "Pacific Family" narrative is a diplomatic framework constr-ucted by Australia to shape its regional leadership. However, profound divergences with Pacific Island Countries (PICs) on climate policy are triggering norm competition and the deconstruction of this collective identity. Based on Alexander Wendt's constructivist "norms-identity" mutual constitution framework, this paper systematically analyzes the opposing stances of both sides in key policy areas such as emission reduction targets, climate finance, loss and damage, and security perceptions. It argues that this divergence is not merely a conflict of interests but, more fundamentally, a competition surrounding core norms like "common destiny", "mutual support", and "family responsibility". Australia's actions in climate policy, which safeguard its own economic interests and evade historical responsibilities, fundamentally contradict the core family norms it advocates—"common destiny", "mutual support", and "family responsibility". This contradiction has triggered intense norm competition, prompting PICs to advance a counter-normative agenda centered on "climate justice" and "the right to survival". Through counter-narrative practices such as constructing an autonomous "Blue Pacific" identity, promoting international litigation, and enhancing regional cooperation, PICs have successfully deconstructed their former identity as "wards" and transformed into "climate justice" advocates. Concurrently, they have redefined Australia from its self-proclaimed role as a "responsible elder brother" into a "norm evader". This process of identity reconstruction is driving the regional order to evolve from an Australia-dominated "dependent solidarity" towards a PICs-led "autonomous symbiosis". This study also provides significant insights for understanding how small states in global climate governance leverage norms and discursive power to secure survival space and promote the transformation of the global governance system towards greater equity, justice, and inclusiveness.

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The evolution of China's overseas industrial park cooperation through policy dynamic interaction: A case study of Ethiopia
Han GAO, Wenchen GONG, Xingping WANG
2026, 35(5): 60-71.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20250239
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This study explores how policy knowledge evolves when transferred across national contexts, focusing on the dynamic interaction of policy actors in China-Ethiopia industrial park cooperation. It develops a three-stage analytical framework—model transfer, local transformation, and governance co-evolution—to trace the institutional pathways and adaptive processes of park development over the past decade. The research employed qualitative methods, including field interviews, policy document analysis, and participatory observation, to examine how Chinese-invested industrial parks were embedded in Ethiopia's institutional environment. The findings show that policy transfer followed a dynamic and interactive process rather than a linear diffusion. In the early stage, Chinese governmental actors and enterprises exported a decontextualized policy model based on accumulated industrial park experience. During the local transformation stage, Ethiopian governments, communities, and Chinese firms engaged in continuous negotiation, re-contextualizing the model through institutional adjustments and knowledge hybridization. In the governance co-evolution stage, localized collaborative mechanisms and adapted governance structures gradually emerged, reflecting increasing institutional synergy between Chinese and Ethiopian stakeholders. This study concludes that policy diffusion under the Belt and Road Initiative is characterized by multi-actor interaction, tacit and explicit knowledge interplay, and the co-evolution of governance structures. It contributes to development geography by conceptualizing policy transfer as a relational and adaptive process and offers practical insights into institutional adaptation and collaborative governance in China's overseas park cooperation.

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Identification and distribution characteristics of informal settlements in Cape Town
Wanyi ZHU, Zhenke ZHANG, Hang REN
2026, 35(5): 72-82.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20250005
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The issue of informal settlements in post-apartheid South Africa remains severe, constituting a significant barrier to urbanization and social equity. This study taking Cape Town as a case example, uses high-resolution remote sensing imagery and geographic spatial datasets to identify the spatial distribution of informal settlements in Cape Town using feature-based method, maximum-minimum distance with building features method, and random forest with building features method, and analyzes the impact of roads, railways, schools, and hospitals on the distribution of informal settlements. The results show that albedo and building density are key features for identifying informal settlements, the feature-based method and random forest with building features method showing similar results of settlement areas. The feature-based method identifies settlements in a more block-like pattern, the maximum-minimum distance with building features method produces blurred boundaries, the edge identified by random forest with building features method shows positional deviation. Transportation infrastructure plays a dominant role in the distribution of informal settlements, with few areas having access to all facilities simultaneously. This study provides a scientific method for identifying the spatial distribution of informal settlements, offering insights for urban morphology evolution and urban planning in Africa.

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Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of China's urban network from the perspective of manufacturing supply chain
Hailin GONG, Huaying KANG
2026, 35(5): 83-99.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240887
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This paper builds urban supply network from the perspective of value chain. Based on the data of supply chain concentration in 2013, 2016, 2019 and 2022, this paper explores the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and the influencing factors of manufacturing urban supply network by complex network research method. Following are the results: ① The development of the overall network tends to be balanced, the tightness and stability of the network are enhanced. The trade accessibility is improved, and it has a certain "small world", but this nature is being gradually broken. ② The eastern region is in the core leading position in the network, the central and western regions are in the periphery of the network as a whole. The capital cities of the central and western regions become important "bridges" connecting the east, central and western regions. ③ The supply network of the manufacturing industry initially forms a "rhombus-like" supply pattern with the four major urban agglomerations of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao and Chengdu-Chongqing as the apex. After the pattern is weakened, it is further highlighted and develops into a "T-shaped" pattern. The network presents a complicated evolution process, and appears the characteristics of "east-leading - central catch-up-east-central-western linkage development". ④ Degree of openness to the outside world, potential of market development, optimization of industrial structure, level of economic development and spatial geographical distance are the main influencing factors in the evolution of manufacturing supply network pattern, and the influence of urban geographical location is gradually weakening.

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Regional disparities and influencing factors of New Quality Productive Forces in the three major river basins of China
Mingyue YAN, Mingtao YAN, Ye ZHANG, Jianji ZHAO
2026, 35(5): 100-113.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240913
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The development of new quality productive forces based on local conditions is an important strategic requirement proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping. Based on the connotation of new quality productive forces, a comprehensive evaluation system is constructed from two dimensions: technological innovation-driven factors and new quality production elements. Using the entropy weight TOPSIS method, this study measures the comprehensive level of new quality productive forces in 21 provinceial units across three major river basins from 2012 to 2022. Additionally, the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density estimation, and optimal parameter geographical detector methods are employed to examine regional disparities and influencing factors of new quality productive forces. The findings indicate that, ①first, the overall level of new quality productive forces in the three major river basins shows an upward trend, with the order of development being the Yangtze River Basin > the Pearl River Basin > the Yellow River Basin. Furthermore, all three river basins exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, following a distribution pattern of "higher in the east and lower in the west." ②Second, the regional disparity analysis reveals that the gap in new quality productive forces among the three river basins initially widened and then narrowed. The Yangtze River Basin has the smallest internal disparity, while the Pearl River Basin has the largest. The largest inter-basin disparity exists between the Yangtze River Basin and the Pearl River Basin, with inter-basin differences being the primary source of variation in new quality productive forces among the three major river basins. ③Finally, the key influencing factors restricting the development of new quality productive forces vary significantly across the three river basins. Specifically, the Yangtze River Basin is mainly driven by economic development, industrial upgrading, and entrepreneurial activity; the Pearl River Basin is influenced by industrial upgrading, industrial agglomeration, and economic development; while the Yellow River Basin is primarily shaped by industrial agglomeration, industrial upgrading, and capital investment. This study provides theoretical guidance and policy recommendations for enhancing the level of new quality productive forces in the three major river basins.

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Research on the spatial-temporal evolution, regional differences, and influencing factors of green total factor productivity in China's manufacturing industry
Shan XU, Yi DENG
2026, 35(5): 114-130.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240888
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This study employs the Undesirable Output-Super Efficiency SBM model to measure the development level of China's manufacturing green total factor productivity (GTFP) from 2005 to 2020. Through comprehensive statistical analyses including kernel density estimation, Dagum Gini coefficient, Spatial Markov Chain, and random forest methods, we systematically investigate the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China's manufacturing GTFP. The findings reveal that:①temporally, China's manufacturing GTFP exhibits phased characteristics of initial decline followed by subsequent rise, with technological innovation and technical efficiency jointly serving as key driving forces. ②Spatially, it demonstrates a "high in the central region, low in the eastern and western regions" regional pattern with insignificant spatial agglomeration effects. The overall regional disparity initially increased then decreased, with the western region showing the largest internal differences. ③Regarding influencing factors, environmental regulation and capital intensity significantly affect GTFP nationally and in central-western regions, while eastern regions are more influenced by industrial structure, foreign direct investment, and economic development levels. From the perspective of manufacturing green transformation, this research provides important insights for fostering the formation of New-Quality Productivity and achieving high-quality economic development in China.

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Assessing the influence of water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture on the coupled coordination of water, energy, and carbon systems: A case study of major agricultural provinces in China
Linfang CHEN, Huanyu SUN, Shenghui ZHOU, Shixing JIAO, Shuang WANG, Xiao ZHAO, Jianmei CHENG
2026, 35(5): 131-143.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240850
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Under the challenges posed by the scarcity of water-energy resources, as well as the growing pressures of carbon emissions,to prevent the irrational diversion of water resources from agriculture, we integrate water transfer from agriculture to non-agriculture(WTAN) within the water-energy-carbon coupling framework. Based on the measured degree of WTAN and the comprehensive evaluation indices of the water, energy, and carbon emission systems, a coupling coordination model is employed to calculate the coordinated development level of WTAN-water-energy-carbon. Subsequently, the influence characteristics of WTAN are summarized. The results suggest that: ① In major agricultural provinces of China, the coupling coordination level of WTAN-water-energy-carbon display pronounced spatial disparities. The evolutionary trends can be categorized into five distinct types: steady change, fluctuating increase, fluctuating decrease, decrease followed by increase, and irregular variation. ② WTAN exerts a detrimental influence on the coupling coordination development of the water-energy-carbon across the majority of provinces, and this adverse effect intensifies with the passage of time. ③ There are regional differences in the coordination between WTAN and the individual systems of water, energy, and carbon, where it predominantly imposes a suppressive and negative impact on these individual systems within most provinces. Through the moderate implementation of WTAN and the advancement of the diversification of resource management, we can optimize the methodology of resource utilization, thereby propelling the comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development of society.

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Spatial structure and border effect measurement of multi-modal traffic flows in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
Xinxuan LIU, Yuanjun LI, Muxin LIANG, Kanhai SHEN, Qingfang LIU, Qitao WU
2026, 35(5): 144-156.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20241062
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Overcoming institutional and boundary barriers to facilitate the free flow of resources is critical for advancing high-quality development in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). This study utilized road, railway, and courier logistics data from the GBA to construct a multi-modal traffic flow network, analyze its spatial structure characteristics, and compare boundary effects using a border effect measurement model. The findings indicate that: ① The multi-modal traffic flow network in the GBA is characterized by a dual-core pattern centered on Guangzhou and Shenzhen. These cities establish strong connections with surrounding cities through road, railway, and courier logistics, accelerating regional economic integration. ② Regarding network structure, the railway flow network is centered on Guangzhou, demonstrating significant radiating capacity. The road passenger flow network exhibits high flexibility, meeting short-distance and cross-border transportation needs. The courier logistics flow network is more evenly distributed, reflecting the high level of regional economic collaboration. ③ Border effects caused by institutional differences between Hong Kong-Macao and mainland China manifest variably across the three transport modes. The railway flow experiences a strong mediating effect, enhancing cross-border connectivity. The road passenger flow is constrained by the shielding effect of institutional boundaries on cross-border travel, while the courier logistics flow shows reduced border effects due to trade facilitation under institutional differences.

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Research on the characteristics and influencing factors of domestic energy consumption by urban and rural residents in China
Li GONG, Jiayi ZHENG, Lu MA
2026, 35(5): 157-170.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240736
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With the increase of domestic energy consumption, domestic energy consumption has become a key area to promote energy transformation and energy conservation and carbon reduction. Taking urban and rural household energy consumption as the research object, this paper reveals the characteristics of urban and rural household energy consumption changes in China from 2007 to 2020, and combines the LMDI model and STIRPAT model to explore the influencing factors and effects of urban and rural energy consumption. The results show that: ① During the study period, the energy consumption of urban and rural residents in each province generally shows a fluctuating upward trend. Among them, the proportion of domestic energy consumption in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas. ② From the perspective of energy consumption structure in urban and rural areas, the energy consumption structure shows a diversified and clean trend.Among them, the consumption growth rate of natural gas, heat and electricity in rural areas is higher than that in urban areas, but the proportion of natural gas consumption in urban and rural areas is still low. ③ In terms of influencing factors, population size, energy intensity, economic development, industrial structure, extensive consumption and clean consumption have significant differences in urban and rural domestic energy consumption to different degrees,with significant differences between urban and rural areas. Subregionally, cities in the central and eastern regions and villages in the central and northeastern regions are more affected by factors such as population size, energy intensity, and economic development effects. To promote energy conservation and carbon reduction, we suggest enhancing the awareness of energy conservation of urban residents, constructing infrastructure such as rural power grids and natural gas equipment, increasing natural gas consumption, promoting technological progress and optimizing the rural power production structure.

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Spatio-temporal differentiation and influencing factors of the high-quality population development in Guangdong at the county level
Zhiwei DU, Mengchu ZHOU, Lixia JIN
2026, 35(5): 171-186.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240650
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High-quality population development (HPD) support Chinese-style modernization. This study constructs an index system for HPD in four dimensions: quality, quantity, structure and distribution, analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of HPD from 2000 to 2020 in Guangdong based on different spatial scales. Based on the town-level counties, it analyzes the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of high-quality population development in the whole province from 2000 to 2020, and discusses the obstacles and main influencing factors of high-quality population development in different periods by using obstacle factor diagnosis and model space panel regression analysis. The results show that: ① There are differences in the score change process of different dimensions of HPD; specifically, the "quality" and the "structure" dimensions kept growing, the "quantity" dimension increased first and decreased recently, while the " distribution" dimension continued to decline; ② The HPD has significant regional heterogeneity, and the average score and growth rate of high-quality development of population in the Pearl River Delta region is much higher than that in the eastern and western regions of Guangdong, showing a "core-periphery" spatial distribution pattern; ③ The main factors influencing HPD are diversified, which are affected by the changes in the level of economic development and the structure of the industry, and by the effects of the local financial revenues and the medical service supply, as well as changes in air quality. The conduct of this study is of great theoretical and practical significance for the in-depth understanding of the scientific connotation of HPD and the improvement of the population development strategy in the new era.

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Study on the evolution of cultural industry agglomeration and its effect on green economic transformation in the Yellow River Basin:
Xiaolong SHI, Yu CHENG, Jianing ZHANG, Yue ZHANG, Jingjing WANG
2026, 35(5): 187-202.  DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.05.20240712
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Industrial agglomeration is a key way to achieve regional economic transformation. Giving full play to the advantages of cultural industry agglomeration has gradually become an important driving force to lead the green economy transformation. Based on the data of cultural enterprises in the Yellow River Basin from 2011 to 2021, the study analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of cultural industry agglomeration and explored its green economic transformation effect from the perspectives of spatial agglomeration, specialized agglomeration and diversified agglomeration. The findings are as follows: ① The cultural industry in the Yellow River Basin is developing steadily, with the number of cultural enterprises increasing from 54 240 in 2011 to 468 550 in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 24%; ② The concentration of cultural industries in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin is the highest, followed by the middle reaches, the middle and upper reaches are dispersed and clustered, and the lower reaches are contiguous. The regions with high-grade kernel density are increasing year by year, and the spatial distribution pattern is changing from "single core or double core in one province" to "multi-core in one province". ③ The cultural industry agglomeration in the Yellow River Basin has a significant promoting effect on green economic transformation and has a significant lag effect. The specialized agglomeration is conducive to improving the level of green economic transformation, and the upper, middle and lower reaches are characterized by heterogeneity. The study puts forward suggestions from the aspects of accelerating the digital transformation of cultural industry, exerting the positive agglomeration effect, implementing differentiated policies, and improving the unified market of cultural industry, so as to provide theoretical and

practical references for further exerting the green economic effect of cultural industry agglomeration.

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