中东地区恐怖主义指数时空演变及其影响因素的时空异质性

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.02.2019430

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

恐怖主义指数是评判恐怖主义风险的重要指标，剖析中东地区恐怖主义指数时空演变及其影响因素的时空异质性，对推理与解析恐怖主义发展趋势及其成因的时空分异具有重要意义。基于GTD数据库，计算恐怖主义指数，对中东地区各国恐怖主义风险进行量化评估，并结合统计指标进一步分析该地区恐怖主义指数的时空演变特征，采用OLS、GWR和GTWR模型解析诸多因素对该地区恐怖主义指数的作用模式。研究表明：（1）1995年至2016年期间，中东地区大部分国家恐怖主义风险逐步提高，且恐怖主义风险表现出一定的空间扩散趋势。（2）相比于OLS模型及GWR模型，GTWR模型解释度及拟合效果均明显增高，说明时空效应对各类因素均存在一定的影响，即各影响因素对中东地区恐怖主义指数均表现为时空非平稳作用模式。（3）通过综合分析各模型回归结果，民族宗教因素为导致中东地区恐怖主义指数发生时空变化的主导因素。

关键词: 恐怖主义指数, 时空演变特征, 时空地理加权回归, 时空异质性, 中东地区

Abstract:

Middle East is suffering more and more side effects from terrorism. The high risk of terrorism in Middle East could not be ignored. Terrorism index, which is estimated through the comprehensive assessment of the direct negative impact from terrorist attacks, can be considered as the significant indicator to evaluate terrorism risk. In light of this, terrorism index is utilized in this paper for the direct reflection of terrorism risk in Middle East. Additionally, terrorism risk would experience variation in both time and space, and the reason for this variation may be diversified. Hence, it is of great importance to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of terrorism index in Middle East to study on the terrorism development trend and external causes. This paper was thus organized as below. Firstly, the terrorism index was constructed and calculated to quantitatively assess the terrorism risk of countries in Middle East. Then the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of terrorism index were analyzed combining multiple statistic indexes. Taken social-economic, political, and geographical factors into consideration, the effects of various factors on the terrorism index in Middle East were finally analyzed by comparing OLS, GWR, and GTWR. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The relevant statistical results suggested that the terrorism risk of most Middle East countries increased gradually from 1995 to 2016, and present a spatial diffusion trend. (2) GTWR had a significant improvement on the model performance in contrast with OLS and GWR, which indicated that the spatio-temporal effect had certain influence on the related factors. (3) Through comprehensive analysis of regression results, the ethnic and religious factors were the most essential influencing factors.

Key words: terrorism index, spatio-temporal characteristics, geographical and temporal weighted regression, spatial-temporal heterogeneity, Middle East

丁梓越, 刘海砚, 陈晓慧, 麻洪川. 中东地区恐怖主义指数时空演变及其影响因素的时空异质性[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(2): 245-256.

Ziyue DING, Haiyan LIU, Xiaohui CHEN, Hongchuan MA. Spatial and temporal evolution of terrorism index in Middle East and the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of its influencing factors[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(2): 245-256.

图/表 8

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指标名称	指标等级	权重因子
事件总数	未分级	1
死亡人数	未分级	3
受伤人数	未分级	0.5
财产损失	未知级别，财产损失=0	0
	较轻级别，财产损失 < $1million	1
	重大级别，$1million <财产损失< $1billion	2
	灾难级别，财产损失 > $1billion	3

指标名称	指标等级	权重因子
事件总数	未分级	1
死亡人数	未分级	3
受伤人数	未分级	0.5
财产损失	未知级别，财产损失=0	0
	较轻级别，财产损失 < $1million	1
	重大级别，$1million <财产损失< $1billion	2
	灾难级别，财产损失 > $1billion	3

指标类型	指标名称^{(数据来源)}	变量表示	取值范围	指标含义	VIF
经济社会	人均GDP^(a)	log GDP	> 0	数值越大，水平越高	2.09^***
	青年失业率^(b)	U	0 - 1	0为最低，1为最高	1.45^***
	民族分异指数^(c)	EF	0 - 1	0为分异程度最低，1为最高	1.71^***
	基督教人口比例^(d)	RC	0 - 1	0为比例最低，1为最高	1.76^***
	伊斯兰教人口比例^(d)	RI	0 - 1	0为比例最低，1为最高	2.58^***
政治	“自由”等级^(e)	FL	1 - 7	1为等级最低，7为最高	2.12^***
政治	国家脆弱性指数^(f)	SFI	0 - 25	0为不脆弱，25为极端脆弱	1.88^***
地理	国土面积比例^(g)	LC	0 - 1	0为比例最低，1为最高	2.54^**

指标类型	指标名称^{(数据来源)}	变量表示	取值范围	指标含义	VIF
经济社会	人均GDP^(a)	log GDP	> 0	数值越大，水平越高	2.09^***
	青年失业率^(b)	U	0 - 1	0为最低，1为最高	1.45^***
	民族分异指数^(c)	EF	0 - 1	0为分异程度最低，1为最高	1.71^***
	基督教人口比例^(d)	RC	0 - 1	0为比例最低，1为最高	1.76^***
	伊斯兰教人口比例^(d)	RI	0 - 1	0为比例最低，1为最高	2.58^***
政治	“自由”等级^(e)	FL	1 - 7	1为等级最低，7为最高	2.12^***
政治	国家脆弱性指数^(f)	SFI	0 - 25	0为不脆弱，25为极端脆弱	1.88^***
地理	国土面积比例^(g)	LC	0 - 1	0为比例最低，1为最高	2.54^**

国家名称	Z_MK	T_ADF	趋势	显著性	国家名称	Z_MK	T_ADF	趋势	显著性
阿尔及利亚	-4.9064^***	-0.3404	下降	显著	摩洛哥	-0.6768	-5.3434^***	稳定	—
巴林	1.5227	-1.9549	上升	不显著	阿曼	0	—	稳定	—
塞浦路斯	0.4794	-3.1883^**	稳定	—	卡塔尔	0.1974	-4.8999^***	稳定	—
埃及	1.4381	-1.5394	上升	不显著	沙特阿拉伯	1.4381	-2.7240	上升	不显著
伊朗	1.9739^**	-2.2507	上升	显著	叙利亚	2.9608^***	-1.2585	上升	显著
伊拉克	3.9477^***	-0.8572	上升	显著	突尼斯	2.2840^**	-2.3044	上升	显著
以色列	-0.8459	-3.0343^**	稳定	—	土耳其	0.7895	-2.8280	上升	不显著
约旦	0.9869	-3.5073^**	稳定	—	阿联酋	0.1974	-5.0668^***	稳定	—
科威特	0.1974	-3.5607^**	稳定	—	巴勒斯坦	0.9023	-2.1163	上升	不显著
黎巴嫩	0.5922	-2.2799	上升	不显著	西撒哈拉	0.0564	-4.5826^***	稳定	—
利比亚	2.5096^**	-0.3201	上升	显著	也门	4.5117^***	-1.1377	上升	显著