世界地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (5): 1061-1072.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.05.2019547
收稿日期:
2019-10-30
修回日期:
2019-12-28
出版日期:
2021-09-30
发布日期:
2021-09-17
通讯作者:
陆林
作者简介:
张瑜 (1995- ), 女, 硕士研究生,主要研究方向为旅游经济和旅游地理,E-mail:Yu_Ian@163.com。
基金资助:
Yu ZHANG1(), Yisheng REN2, Lin LU1(), Yulian ZHENG1
Received:
2019-10-30
Revised:
2019-12-28
Online:
2021-09-30
Published:
2021-09-17
Contact:
Lin LU
摘要:
基于中国31个省域2008—2016年的面板数据,采用探索性空间数据分析法研究城乡居民收入差距的全局和局部空间演化特征,构建空间计量经济学模型实证考察入境旅游集聚对城乡居民收入差距的影响。结果显示:(1)中国31个省域城乡居民收入差距存在空间正相关性,呈现稳中有降的趋势,空间集聚明显且具有显著空间溢出效应;(2)无论是非空面板模型还是空间面板模型都表明入境旅游集聚有助于缩小城乡居民收入差距,非空面板模型由于忽略空间溢出效应而高估入境旅游集聚对城乡居民收入差距的影响;(3) 经济发展水平、政府行为、经济开放程度、固定资产投资水平等要素对城乡居民收入差距具有显著负向效应,新型城镇化发展水平具有正向影响。在入境旅游集聚的影响下,传统要素展现了不同程度的数值变化与作用方向偏移。
张瑜, 任以胜, 陆林, 郑玉莲. 入境旅游集聚对城乡居民收入差距的空间效应[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 1061-1072.
Yu ZHANG, Yisheng REN, Lin LU, Yulian ZHENG. Spatial effect of agglomeration of inbound tourism on urban & rural residents' income gap ——Based on spatial econometric model[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(5): 1061-1072.
一级指标 | 二级指标 | 三级指标 |
---|---|---|
新型城镇化发展水平 | 人口城镇化 | 城镇化率/% |
第三产业从业人员比/% | ||
人口密度/(人/平方公里) | ||
经济城镇化 | 人均国内生产总值/(元/人) | |
二、三产业增加值占GDP比重/% | ||
城镇家庭人均可支配收入/(元/人) | ||
人均地方财政收入/(元/人) | ||
社会城镇化 | 人均教育经费/(元/人) | |
每十万人普通高校在校学生数/人 | ||
每千人口卫生技术人员数/人 | ||
基本养老保险覆盖率/% | ||
环境城镇化 | 建成区绿化覆盖率/% | |
污水处理率/% | ||
生活垃圾处理率/% |
表1 新型城镇化发展水平指标体系
Tab.1 The index system of new urbanization
一级指标 | 二级指标 | 三级指标 |
---|---|---|
新型城镇化发展水平 | 人口城镇化 | 城镇化率/% |
第三产业从业人员比/% | ||
人口密度/(人/平方公里) | ||
经济城镇化 | 人均国内生产总值/(元/人) | |
二、三产业增加值占GDP比重/% | ||
城镇家庭人均可支配收入/(元/人) | ||
人均地方财政收入/(元/人) | ||
社会城镇化 | 人均教育经费/(元/人) | |
每十万人普通高校在校学生数/人 | ||
每千人口卫生技术人员数/人 | ||
基本养老保险覆盖率/% | ||
环境城镇化 | 建成区绿化覆盖率/% | |
污水处理率/% | ||
生活垃圾处理率/% |
图1 中国入境旅游区位熵与城乡居民收入差距的空间分布图注:该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2016)1666号的标准地图制作,底图无修改。
Fig. 1 Spatial distribution of China's inbound tourism location entropy and urban & rural residents' income gap
空间依赖性检验 | 数值 | P值 | 统计量 | 数值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LM-spatial error | 9.168 | 0.002 | Wald-spatial error | 61.88 | 0.000 |
Robust LM-spatial error | 3.639 | 0.056 | LR-spatial error | 60.06 | 0.000 |
LM-spatial lag | 30.248 | 0.000 | Wald-spatial lag | 59.01 | 0.000 |
Robust LM-spatial lag | 24.719 | 0.000 | LR-spatial lag | 53.95 | 0.000 |
Hausman | 87.01 | 0.000 |
表2 空间面板计量模型的检验结果
Tab.2 The results of spatial panel model identification
空间依赖性检验 | 数值 | P值 | 统计量 | 数值 | P值 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
LM-spatial error | 9.168 | 0.002 | Wald-spatial error | 61.88 | 0.000 |
Robust LM-spatial error | 3.639 | 0.056 | LR-spatial error | 60.06 | 0.000 |
LM-spatial lag | 30.248 | 0.000 | Wald-spatial lag | 59.01 | 0.000 |
Robust LM-spatial lag | 24.719 | 0.000 | LR-spatial lag | 53.95 | 0.000 |
Hausman | 87.01 | 0.000 |
参数 | 普通面板模型 | 空间滞后模型 | 空间杜宾模型 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
re | fe | re | fe | re | fe | |
lnlq | -0.031*** | -0.048*** | -0.033*** | -0.048*** | -0.030*** | -0.040*** |
(0.009) | (0.011) | (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.009) | (0.009) | |
lnpgdp | -0.261*** | -0.220*** | -0.183*** | -0.162*** | -0.165*** | -0.167*** |
(0.025) | (0.033) | (0.030) | (0.035) | (0.048) | (0.054) | |
lnurb | 0.028 | -0.035 | 0.028 | -0.019 | 0.107*** | 0.091** |
(0.032) | (0.037) | (0.031) | (0.034) | (0.035) | (0.037) | |
lnedu | 0.057 | 0.044 | 0.051 | 0.044 | 0.035 | 0.041 |
(0.039) | (0.038) | (0.036) | (0.035) | (0.038) | (0.036) | |
lngov | -0.047* | -0.030 | -0.049* | -0.040 | -0.068*** | -0.094*** |
(0.028) | (0.032) | (0.027) | (0.029) | (0.030) | (0.030) | |
lnopen | -0.047*** | -0.052*** | -0.045*** | -0.050*** | -0.040*** | -0.043*** |
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.006) | |
lninv | -0.031** | -0.018 | -0.030** | -0.020 | -0.030** | -0.023* |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |
lninfras | -0.046* | -0.096 | -0.037 | -0.081 | -0.073** | -0.083 |
(0.027) | (0.069) | (0.026) | (0.062) | (0.033) | (0.059) | |
lnstruc | -0.030 | -0.068*** | -0.007 | -0.041* | 0.016 | -0.016 |
(0.022) | (0.024) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.027) | |
_cons | 0.797*** | 0.739*** | 0.464* | 0.553 | ||
(0.276) | (0.277) | (0.273) | (0.465) | |||
Wx:lnlq | -0.006 | -0.025 | ||||
(0.019) | (0.021) | |||||
Wx:lnpgdp | -0.072 | -0.078 | ||||
(0.062) | (0.072) | |||||
Wx:lnurb | -0.253*** | -0.272*** | ||||
(0.053) | (0.053) | |||||
Wx:lnedu | 0.034 | 0.029 | ||||
(0.064) | (0.062) | |||||
Wx:lngov | 0.184*** | 0.258*** | ||||
(0.050) | (0.053) | |||||
Wx:lnopen | -0.011 | -0.020 | ||||
(0.013) | (0.013) | |||||
Wx:lninv | -0.006 | 0.024 | ||||
(0.026) | (0.026) | |||||
Wx:lninfras | 0.178*** | 0.137 | ||||
(0.052) | (0.138) | |||||
Wx:lnstruc | -0.121*** | -0.123*** | ||||
(0.039) | (0.043) | |||||
ρ | 0.275*** | 0.223*** | 0.180*** | 0.133* | ||
(0.066) | (0.068) | (0.077) | (0.079) | |||
R-squared | 0.790 | 0.796 | 0.795 | 0.801 | 0.830 | 0.835 |
表3 城乡居民收入差距的非空间面板模型和空间面板模型的估计结果
Tab.3 Results of non-spatial and spatial panel models on China’s urban & rural residents’ income gap
参数 | 普通面板模型 | 空间滞后模型 | 空间杜宾模型 | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
re | fe | re | fe | re | fe | |
lnlq | -0.031*** | -0.048*** | -0.033*** | -0.048*** | -0.030*** | -0.040*** |
(0.009) | (0.011) | (0.009) | (0.010) | (0.009) | (0.009) | |
lnpgdp | -0.261*** | -0.220*** | -0.183*** | -0.162*** | -0.165*** | -0.167*** |
(0.025) | (0.033) | (0.030) | (0.035) | (0.048) | (0.054) | |
lnurb | 0.028 | -0.035 | 0.028 | -0.019 | 0.107*** | 0.091** |
(0.032) | (0.037) | (0.031) | (0.034) | (0.035) | (0.037) | |
lnedu | 0.057 | 0.044 | 0.051 | 0.044 | 0.035 | 0.041 |
(0.039) | (0.038) | (0.036) | (0.035) | (0.038) | (0.036) | |
lngov | -0.047* | -0.030 | -0.049* | -0.040 | -0.068*** | -0.094*** |
(0.028) | (0.032) | (0.027) | (0.029) | (0.030) | (0.030) | |
lnopen | -0.047*** | -0.052*** | -0.045*** | -0.050*** | -0.040*** | -0.043*** |
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.006) | |
lninv | -0.031** | -0.018 | -0.030** | -0.020 | -0.030** | -0.023* |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.012) | |
lninfras | -0.046* | -0.096 | -0.037 | -0.081 | -0.073** | -0.083 |
(0.027) | (0.069) | (0.026) | (0.062) | (0.033) | (0.059) | |
lnstruc | -0.030 | -0.068*** | -0.007 | -0.041* | 0.016 | -0.016 |
(0.022) | (0.024) | (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.023) | (0.027) | |
_cons | 0.797*** | 0.739*** | 0.464* | 0.553 | ||
(0.276) | (0.277) | (0.273) | (0.465) | |||
Wx:lnlq | -0.006 | -0.025 | ||||
(0.019) | (0.021) | |||||
Wx:lnpgdp | -0.072 | -0.078 | ||||
(0.062) | (0.072) | |||||
Wx:lnurb | -0.253*** | -0.272*** | ||||
(0.053) | (0.053) | |||||
Wx:lnedu | 0.034 | 0.029 | ||||
(0.064) | (0.062) | |||||
Wx:lngov | 0.184*** | 0.258*** | ||||
(0.050) | (0.053) | |||||
Wx:lnopen | -0.011 | -0.020 | ||||
(0.013) | (0.013) | |||||
Wx:lninv | -0.006 | 0.024 | ||||
(0.026) | (0.026) | |||||
Wx:lninfras | 0.178*** | 0.137 | ||||
(0.052) | (0.138) | |||||
Wx:lnstruc | -0.121*** | -0.123*** | ||||
(0.039) | (0.043) | |||||
ρ | 0.275*** | 0.223*** | 0.180*** | 0.133* | ||
(0.066) | (0.068) | (0.077) | (0.079) | |||
R-squared | 0.790 | 0.796 | 0.795 | 0.801 | 0.830 | 0.835 |
变量 | lnlq | lnpgdp | lnurb | lnedu | lngov | lnopen | lninv | lninfras | lnstruc |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
直接效应 | -0.040*** (0.010) | -0.172*** (0.051) | 0.087** (0.034) | 0.042 (0.035) | -0.087*** (0.029) | -0.044*** (0.006) | -0.022* (0.012) | -0.080 (0.058) | -0.017 (0.026) |
间接效应 | -0.034 (0.025) | -0.115 (0.072) | -0.292*** (0.062) | 0.036 (0.069) | 0.282*** (0.061) | -0.030** (0.013) | 0.023 (0.031) | 0.149 (0.150) | -0.146*** (0.049) |
总效应 | -0.075*** (0.029) | -0.287*** (0.063) | -0.205*** (0.059) | 0.078 (0.072) | 0.195*** (0.063) | -0.074*** (0.014) | 0.001 (0.032) | 0.069 (0.171) | -0.163*** (0.050) |
表4 SDM空间固定效应分解结果
Tab.4 Decomposed spatial effects of SDM with spatial fixed effects
变量 | lnlq | lnpgdp | lnurb | lnedu | lngov | lnopen | lninv | lninfras | lnstruc |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
直接效应 | -0.040*** (0.010) | -0.172*** (0.051) | 0.087** (0.034) | 0.042 (0.035) | -0.087*** (0.029) | -0.044*** (0.006) | -0.022* (0.012) | -0.080 (0.058) | -0.017 (0.026) |
间接效应 | -0.034 (0.025) | -0.115 (0.072) | -0.292*** (0.062) | 0.036 (0.069) | 0.282*** (0.061) | -0.030** (0.013) | 0.023 (0.031) | 0.149 (0.150) | -0.146*** (0.049) |
总效应 | -0.075*** (0.029) | -0.287*** (0.063) | -0.205*** (0.059) | 0.078 (0.072) | 0.195*** (0.063) | -0.074*** (0.014) | 0.001 (0.032) | 0.069 (0.171) | -0.163*** (0.050) |
1 | Wang C, Zhang X, Vilela A L M, et al. Industrial structure upgrading and the impact of the capital market from 1998 to 2015: A spatial econometric analysis in Chinese regions. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2019, 513(2019): 189-201. |
2 | 丁焕峰, 刘心怡. 城镇化背景下城乡收入差距的时空演化. 经济地理, 2017, 37(4): 32-41. |
Ding H, Liu X. Measure and Analysis on the Urban-Rural Income Gap in China. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(4): 32-41. | |
3 | 文旅. 去年旅游业综合贡献占GDP总量11.04%. 中国旅游报,2019-02-13:001. |
Wen L. The comprehensive contribution of tourism industry accounted for11.04% of GDP last year. China Tourism News, 2019-02-13:001. | |
4 | 赵磊. 旅游发展能否减小城乡收入差距?——来自中国的经验证据. 旅游学刊, 2011, 26(12): 15-25. |
Zhao L. Can tourism development reduce the urban-rural income gap?—An empirical evidence from China. Tourism Tribune, 2011, 26(12): 15-25. | |
5 | 夏赞才, 龚艳青, 罗文斌. 中国旅游经济增长与城乡收入差距的变异关系. 资源科学, 2016, 38(4): 599-608. |
Xia Z, Gong Y, Luo W. Variable Relationship between Domestic Tourism Expansion and Urban-rural Income Gaps. Resources Science, 2016, 38(4): 599-608. | |
6 | Bontron J C, Lasnier N. Tourism: a potential source of rural employment. Tourism: a potential source of rural employment., 1997: 427-446. |
7 | 马奔, 温亚利. 生态旅游对农户家庭收入影响研究——基于倾向得分匹配法的实证分析. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2016, 26(10):152-160. |
Ma B, Wen Y. Impact of ecotourism management on rural households income—based on propensity score matching method. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2016, 26(10):152-160. | |
8 | 陆林, 任以胜, 朱道才, 等. 乡村旅游引导乡村振兴的研究框架与展望. 地理研究, 2019, 38(1):104-120. |
Lu L, Ren Y, Zhu D,et al. The research framework and prospect of rural revitalization led by rural tourism. Geographical Research, 2019, 38(1):104-120. | |
9 | Liu A. Tourism in rural areas: Kedah, Malaysia. Tourism Management, 2006, 27(5): 878-889. |
10 | 于正松, 莫君慧, 李同昇, 等. 入境旅游业发展的居民收入响应强度省际差异. 经济地理, 2014, 34(12): 188-193. |
Yu Z, Mo J, Li T, et al. The provincial differences about the response intensity of residents' income to the development about inbound tourism. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(12): 188-193. | |
11 | Liu A, Doris Chenguang Wu. Tourism productivity and economic growth. Annals of Tourism Research, 2019, 76: 253-265. |
12 | Williams A M, Shaw G. Tourism: Candy floss industry or job generator?. Town Planning Review, 1988, 59(1):81-103. |
13 | 王永明, 王美霞. 张家界旅游发展与居民收入的互动效应及影响因素. 经济地理, 2015, 35(3): 197-202. |
Wang Y, Wang M. The interaction relationship between tourism industry and residents' income: A case of Zhangjiajie City, China. Economic Geography, 2015, 35(3): 197-202. | |
14 | Liu J, Nijkamp P, Lin D. Urban-rural imbalance and Tourism-Led Growth in China. Annals of Tourism Research, 2017, 64:24-36. |
15 | Alam M S, Paramati S R. The impact of tourism on income inequality in developing economies: Does Kuznets curve hypothesis exist?. Annals of Tourism Research, 2016, 61:111-126. |
16 | 李如友. 中国旅游发展与城乡收入差距关系的空间计量分析. 经济管理, 2016, 38(9): 161-172. |
Li R. Spatial econometric analysis of the relationship between tourism development and urban-rural income gap in China. Business Management Journal, 2016, 38(9): 161-172. | |
17 | 麻学锋, 孙根年. 20年来张家界旅游发展的民生福利考察. 统计与信息论坛, 2011, 26(7): 66-71. |
Ma X, Sun G. The livelihood and welfare study on Zhangjiajie tourism development for 20 Years. Statistics & Information Forum, 2011, 26(7): 66-71. | |
18 | 王凯,易静,肖燕, 等. 中国旅游产业集聚与产业效率的关系研究.人文地理,2016(2):120-127. |
Wang K, Yi J, Xiao Y, et al. The correlation between tourism agglomeration and industrial efficiency in China. Human Geography, 2016(2):120-127. | |
19 | Bannister G J, Stolp C. Regional concentration and efficiency in Mexican manufacturing. European Journal of Operational Research, 1995, 80(3): 672-690. |
20 | Marshall A. Principles of economics : an introductory volume. Social Science Electronic Publishing, 1920, 67(1742):457. |
21 | Baum J A C, Haveman H A. Love Thy Neighbor?Differentiation and Agglomeration in the Manhattan Hotel Industry: 1898-1990. Administrative Science Quarterly, 1997, 42. |
22 | Jackson J. Developing regional tourism in China: The potential for activating business clusters in a socialist market economy. Tourism Management, 2006, 27(4):695-706. |
23 | 江孝君, 杨青山, 耿清格, 等. 长江经济带生态—经济—社会系统协调发展时空分异及驱动机制. 长江流域资源与环境, 2019, 28(3): 493-504. |
Jiang X, Yang Q, Geng Q, et al. Spatial-temporal differentiation and driving mechanism of coordinated development of ecological-economic-society systems in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2019, 28(3): 493-504. | |
24 | 何伟纯, 姜玉玲, 康江江, 等. 河南省经济差异的时空演变及其动力机制. 地域研究与开发, 2016, 35(4): 22-26. |
He W, Jiang Y, Kang J, et al. Space-Time evolution of regional economic differences and dynamic mechanism in Henan Province. Areal Research and Development, 2016, 35(4): 22-26. | |
25 | Tobler W R. A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic geography, 1970, 46(sup1): 234-240. |
26 | LeSage J, Pace R K. Introduction to spatial econometrics. Chapman and Hall/CRC, 2009. |
27 | 方叶林, 黄震方, 胡最, 等. 中国大陆入境旅游产业结构时空格局演化及类型划分. 经济地理, 2016, 36(3): 179-185. |
Fang Y, Huang Z, Hu Z, et al. Time-Space evolution patterns and classification of inbound tourism industrial structure in Chinese Mainland. Economic Geography, 2016, 36(3): 179-185. | |
28 | 杨仁发. 产业集聚与地区工资差距——基于我国269个城市的实证研究. 管理世界, 2013(8): 41-52. |
Yang R. Industrial agglomeration and regional wage gap: an empirical study based on 269 cities in China. Management World, 2013(8): 41-52. | |
29 | 刘望辉, 张奋勤, 刘习平. 产业集聚与新型城镇化的关系的实证研究. 统计与决策, 2015(24): 140-143. |
Liu W, Zhang F, Liu X. Empirical study on the relationship between industrial agglomeration and new-type urbanization. Statistics & Decision, 2015(24): 140-143. | |
30 | 陈钊, 陆铭, 金煜. 中国人力资本和教育发展的区域差异:对于面板数据的估算. 世界经济, 2004(12): 25-31+77. |
Chen Z, Lu M, Jin Y. Regional differences of human capitals and education development in China: An estimation of the panel data. The Journal of World Economy, 2004(12): 25-31+77. | |
31 | 王建康, 谷国锋, 姚丽. 城市化进程、空间溢出效应与城乡收入差距——基于2002-2012年省级面板数据. 财经研究, 2015, 41(5): 55-66. |
Wang J, Gu G, Yao L. Urbanization process, spatial spillover effect and urban-rural income gap—Based on provincial panel data from 2002 to 2012. Journal of Finance and Economics, 2015, 41(5): 55-66. | |
32 | 孙斌栋, 金晓溪, 林杰. 走向大中小城市协调发展的中国新型城镇化格局——建国以来中国城市规模分布演化与影响因素. 地理研究, 2019, 38(1): 77-86. |
Sun B, Jin X, Lin J. China's new pattern of urbanization toward coordinated development of large, medium and small cities: Evolution and determinants of city size distribution since 1949. Geographical Research, 2019, 38(1): 77-86. | |
33 | 罗能生, 彭郁. 交通基础设施建设有助于改善城乡收入公平吗?——基于省级空间面板数据的实证检验. 产业经济研究, 2016(4): 100-110. |
Luo N, Peng Y. Transport infrastructure construction and urban-rural income equality—An empirical test based on provincial panel data. Industrial Economics Research, 2016(4): 100-110. | |
34 | 王耀中, 欧阳彪, 李越. 生产性服务业集聚与新型城镇化——基于城市面板数据的空间计量分析. 财经理论与实践, 2014(4):105-110. |
Wang Y, Ouyang B, Li Y. Producer services clustering and new urbanization—Based on urban spatial econometric analysis of panel data. The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics, 2014(4):105-110. |
[1] | 王运喆, 张国俊, 周春山. 中国城市群产业协同集聚的时空特征及影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(2): 104-114. |
[2] | 苏建军, 关丽, 张毓. 丝绸之路经济带沿线国家旅游资源与 入境旅游发展空间格局特征与差异[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(3): 509-519. |
[3] | 陈勤昌. 长江经济带入境旅游经济发展水平省际差异研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(2): 191-200. |
阅读次数 | ||||||
全文 |
|
|||||
摘要 |
|
|||||