主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2016, Vol. ›› Issue (02): 21-29.

• 世界政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

论俄罗斯北方航道治理路径及前景评估

赵隆   

  1. 上海国际问题研究院
  • 收稿日期:2015-01-13 修回日期:2015-08-28 出版日期:2016-04-15 发布日期:2016-04-06
  • 通讯作者: 赵隆
  • 基金资助:

    国家海洋局中国极地科学战略研究基金项目“全球治理中的北极问题——多元行为体的视角”

On the Governance path of Russia to Northern Sea Route and assessment of its future development

  • Received:2015-01-13 Revised:2015-08-28 Online:2016-04-15 Published:2016-04-06

摘要: 受气候变暖及融冰加剧的影响,北极问题在近年来的影响逐步扩散,北方航道的预期经济性也引发关于大规模开发利用的讨论。在内外需求交织的背景下,俄罗斯以“有限开放”原则为基础采取“选择性妥协”治理路径,在航行规则和基础设施建设等问题上主动妥协,努力将北方航道作为应对外部挑战和国内发展需求的新增长点。北方航道有限的数据背后反映出航运需求和经济性预期的片面性,且缺乏对自然条件、航运安全、污染防控等多重不确定因素评估,在短期内尚不具备大规模商业通航和投资的条件。以季节性运输及试航积累冰区航行经验,以港口基建为路径配置资金技术输出,以航运企业为主体主动配合俄罗斯战略调整需求,或是我国参与北方航道事务的优选方案。

Abstract: Under the impact of global warming and ice-melting, Arctic issue became with more effect of diffusion in recent years, the possible economical advantage of Northern Sea Route (NSR) have been discussed broadly. In the context of internal and external demands, Russia has practiced selective compromise governance path based on the principle of limited opening, initiates proactive compromise on issues such as navigation rules and infrastructure building, using the NSR as a response to external challenges and new growth-point of domestic demand. However, behind current limited data of NSR exists so called one-sidedness of shipping demands and economical hypothesis, which reflects lack of knowledge in climate change, hydrology and meteorology, maritime security, pollution control and other uncertain factors assessment, the commercial shipping and investment conditions of NSR in the short-terms are limited.