中国水果产业布局演变及其影响效应研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.09.2021645

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在推导中国水果产业布局演变的影响模型基础上，以1985—2019年中国22个水果主产省为研究对象，探讨农业劳动价格、非农劳动价格和工资收入占比对我国水果产业布局演变的影响效应。结果表明：农业劳动价格、非农劳动价格和工资收入占比的提高对东部水果种植产生替代效应，造成东部各省区水果种植面积减少或增幅不明显，比重下降；农业劳动价格、非农劳动价格和工资收入占比对中部水果种植的影响具有省际异质性，产生的替代效应和收入效应相互抵消，导致中部整体水果种植比重无显著变化；西北、西南地区较低的农业劳动工价和非农劳动价格使其具有劳动成本比较优势，工资收入占比提高产生收入效应，使西北、西南地区水果种植面积大幅增加，比重上升，促成我国水果种植布局“西移内扩”。因此，优化水果产业布局要解决水果适宜区农村劳动力价格过高和非适宜区农村劳动力价格过低等问题。

关键词: 农业劳动价格, 非农劳动价格, 工资收入占比, 水果产业布局

Abstract:

On deriving the impact model of the evolution of the fruit industry distribution in China and the datum of 22 major provinces planting fruit in 1985-2019, it studies the impact of agricultural labor price, non-agricultural labor prices and the proportion of wage in farmers' income on the distribution evolution of fruit industry empirically. The results show that: The increases of agricultural labor price, non-agricultural labor prices and the proportion of wages in farmers' income bring a substitution effect on fruit planting in provinces from eastern areas, which results in a decline or unchanging acreage of fruit planting, that is the acreage proportions in provinces from eastern areas decrease; There are inhibitory effect of agricultural labor price, non-agricultural labor prices and the proportion of wages in farmers' income on fruit planting by which the substitution effect and the income effect offset each other, so that the proportion of fruit planting in middle areas has no significant change; There are comparative advantage produced by lower agricultural labor price and lower non-agricultural labor prices and income effect produced by increasing wages which stimulate the acreages of fruit planting expand and the acreages proportion increase in large scale in provinces from northwest and southwest areas so that a distribution of "westward and inward expansion" of the fruit plant in China is forming.Therefore, it is necessary to solve the problems of excessively high prices of rural labor in areas suitable for fruit plant and low prices of rural labor in unsuitable areas.

Key words: price of agricultural labor, price of non-agricultural labor, the proportion of wages in farmers' income, fruit planting distribution

胡友, 陈昕, 祁春节. 中国水果产业布局演变及其影响效应研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(9): 93-108.

You HU, Xin CHEN, Chunjie QI. Research on the changes of China's fruit planting distribution and its influence effect: Based on the perspective of price changes of rural labor[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(9): 93-108.

图/表 8

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变量类别	变量名称	变量定义	定义出处
被解释变量	水果种植面积比重	水果种植面积占全国比重/%	易小兰等^[46]
核心变量	农业劳动价格	农业劳动日工价/元	杨进等^[47]
	非农劳动价格	人均非农就业工资收入/元	徐志刚等^[48]
	工资收入占比	农村家庭工资性收入/农村家庭总收入/%	徐志刚等^[25]
控制变量	非农就业机会	（农村劳动力总数－农业从业人数）/农村劳动力总数/%	包玉泽等^[49]
	物质投入	农业生产资料价格指数（1985年=100）	王秀红^[50]
	水果价格	鲜果零售价格指数（1985年=100）	周曙东等^[45]
	生长期月平均累计降水	主产省主要园林水果生长期（1—8月）月平均累计降水/mm	—
	生长期月平均气温	主产省主要园林水果生长期（1—8月）月平均气温/℃	—
	种植习惯	上期水果种植面积比重/%	王彩峰等^[51]
	农林经济政策	农林特产税政策，2004年前取值为0，2004年后取值为1	耿献辉等^[52]
	交通运输条件	铁路和公路里程数总和/行政区域面积/%	白秀广等^[2]

变量类别	变量名称	变量定义	定义出处
被解释变量	水果种植面积比重	水果种植面积占全国比重/%	易小兰等^[46]
核心变量	农业劳动价格	农业劳动日工价/元	杨进等^[47]
	非农劳动价格	人均非农就业工资收入/元	徐志刚等^[48]
	工资收入占比	农村家庭工资性收入/农村家庭总收入/%	徐志刚等^[25]
控制变量	非农就业机会	（农村劳动力总数－农业从业人数）/农村劳动力总数/%	包玉泽等^[49]
	物质投入	农业生产资料价格指数（1985年=100）	王秀红^[50]
	水果价格	鲜果零售价格指数（1985年=100）	周曙东等^[45]
	生长期月平均累计降水	主产省主要园林水果生长期（1—8月）月平均累计降水/mm	—
	生长期月平均气温	主产省主要园林水果生长期（1—8月）月平均气温/℃	—
	种植习惯	上期水果种植面积比重/%	王彩峰等^[51]
	农林经济政策	农林特产税政策，2004年前取值为0，2004年后取值为1	耿献辉等^[52]
	交通运输条件	铁路和公路里程数总和/行政区域面积/%	白秀广等^[2]

年份	CR_5-A	CR_7-A	区域分布
1985	54.03	64.76	山东、河北、辽宁、广东、河南、四川、福建
1990	52.24	62.99	河北、山东、广东、辽宁、陕西、福建、四川
1995	49.78	61.59	河北、山东、广东、陕西、福建、广西、新疆
2000	50.02	61.20	河北、广东、广西、山东、陕西、福建、河南
2005	47.10	57.71	河北、广东、广西、陕西、山东、福建、四川
2010	46.04	56.68	陕西、广东、新疆、广西、河北、山东、四川
2015	44.05	54.75	陕西、广西、新疆、广东、四川、河北、山东
2018	43.57	53.78	广西、陕西、新疆、广东、四川、云南、贵州
2019	43.49	54.50	广西、陕西、广东、新疆、四川、云南、贵州

年份	CR_5-A	CR_7-A	区域分布
1985	54.03	64.76	山东、河北、辽宁、广东、河南、四川、福建
1990	52.24	62.99	河北、山东、广东、辽宁、陕西、福建、四川
1995	49.78	61.59	河北、山东、广东、陕西、福建、广西、新疆
2000	50.02	61.20	河北、广东、广西、山东、陕西、福建、河南
2005	47.10	57.71	河北、广东、广西、陕西、山东、福建、四川
2010	46.04	56.68	陕西、广东、新疆、广西、河北、山东、四川
2015	44.05	54.75	陕西、广西、新疆、广东、四川、河北、山东
2018	43.57	53.78	广西、陕西、新疆、广东、四川、云南、贵州
2019	43.49	54.50	广西、陕西、广东、新疆、四川、云南、贵州

地区	农业劳动价格								非农劳动价格
地区	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2019	1985	1990	1995	2000	2005	2010	2015	2019
辽宁	4.99	8.05	14.86	23.72	26.57	34.57	53.00	67.37	143	261	486	883	1 212	2 650	4 730	5 645
山东	3.62	5.16	9.74	18.60	23.21	30.02	61.47	81.07	81	168	409	851	1 438	2 958	5 140	6 550
山西	3.65	4.87	8.06	15.93	20.42	29.05	51.22	66.56	110	165	367	726	1 178	2 109	4 922	5 736
陕西	2.42	3.27	5.74	10.82	12.35	20.07	47.50	77.78	39	88	186	446	757	1 734	3 548	4 621
江苏	3.50	3.86	13.92	24.22	27.48	41.16	95.70	133.93	135	301	822	1 663	2 786	4 896	8 015	10 222
河北	3.37	4.71	8.26	17.96	19.99	28.05	52.73	64.33	89	171	441	949	1 294	2 653	5 812	7 454
河南	3.00	4.00	7.35	13.24	14.95	23.28	42.88	54.88	45	79	164	474	854	1 944	3 728	5 336
新疆	4.46	6.11	10.53	14.55	28.94	44.85	72.11	91.29	38	54	64	105	196	556	2 131	2 945
甘肃	2.41	3.16	6.13	11.45	13.09	19.13	38.68	52.90	40	81	92	355	587	1 199	1 975	2 535
安徽	3.24	4.16	7.38	12.81	14.76	20.95	40.44	53.46	36	77	234	548	1 010	2 204	3 983	5 058
贵州	2.15	2.80	2.20	3.69	10.41	15.76	39.56	50.71	27	47	146	275	583	1 304	2 897	4 276
福建	3.41	5.65	11.31	20.82	23.65	34.25	51.41	68.84	74	157	521	1 069	1 651	3 095	6 187	8 215
浙江	3.04	3.43	12.54	19.86	23.33	37.60	106.87	185.82	163	354	1 110	2 001	3 239	5 822	13 087	16 898
江西	3.51	4.93	9.85	17.07	19.16	29.65	54.22	76.34	53	87	320	744	1 228	2 395	4 393	6 121
湖北	3.89	4.90	10.57	19.78	15.19	29.30	49.73	94.32	50	82	192	548	942	2 186	3 683	4 887
湖南	3.30	4.35	8.39	14.56	16.61	23.11	57.84	91.23	54	85	268	790	1 229	2 656	4 515	5 769
广东	4.88	7.65	14.94	21.57	21.78	28.95	79.66	109.95	77	236	712	1 362	2 562	4 800	6 724	8 511
广西	1.88	2.57	3.95	14.31	13.71	20.08	54.03	77.88	27	60	202	484	907	1 707	2 549	3 691
四川	1.58	1.85	3.35	7.50	14.88	22.75	49.50	66.29	47	84	209	607	955	2 248	3 464	4 311
重庆	4.07	4.77	8.64	9.72	11.64	17.97	61.78	90.32	47	84	209	623	1 089	2 335	3 583	4 848
海南	1.93	7.63	14.26	21.93	20.57	29.62	53.80	65.91	77	61	54	151	473	1 262	4 251	5 611
云南	2.40	2.52	3.85	6.62	11.66	19.02	37.43	50.98	36	77	121	264	348	930	2 316	3 260