美国亚太盟国对华战略调整的逻辑

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.12.20230632

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

冷战结束后，中国实力的崛起引起了美国及其在亚太地区的联盟国的对华战略调整，并且调整方向各不相同。本文通过构建同盟战略联动效应的分析框架，勾勒出美国亚太盟国对华战略调整进程的大致轮廓，即美国亚太盟国依据战略联动情形下对华战略成本、收益的预评估，调节其与美国的战略联动效果，形成对华战略调整的结果。以菲律宾、澳大利亚为例，对阿基诺三世政府、杜特尔特政府、特恩布尔政府及莫里森政府的对华战略调整进行分析，验证了本文的研究假设。研究表明，美国亚太盟国对华战略成本与收益的匹配程度影响了其与美国战略联动的调节，进而决定了亚太盟国对华战略调整的方向。据此，中国应合理判断美国亚太盟国对华战略成本、收益的状况，提升其对华战略调整的成本并降低战略联动对预期获益的影响，从而引导其进行有利于中国的战略调整。

关键词: 美国亚太盟国, 对华战略, 战略联动, 评估程序, 战略调整

Abstract:

After the Cold War, the rise of China's power has caused the strategic adjustment of the United States and its Asia-Pacific allies to China, and the direction of adjustment is different. By constructing the analysis frame of alliance strategic coupling effect, this paper outlines the general outline of the strategic adjustment process of US Asia-Pacific allies to China. In other words, according to the evaluation results of the strategic costs and benefits of China under the influence of the current situation of strategic coupling, the Asia-Pacific allies of the United States adjust the effect of its strategic coupling with the United States and form the result of its strategic adjustment to China. Taking the Philippines and Australia as examples, this paper verifies the research hypothesis by analyzing the strategic adjustments to China of the Aquino III, Duterte, Turnbull and Morrison governments. The research shows that the matching degree of the strategic costs and benefits of the Asia-Pacific allies to China affects the adjustment of their strategic coupling with the United States, and then determines the direction of the strategic adjustment of the Asia-Pacific allies to China. Therefore, China should reasonably evaluate the cost and benefit status of the US Asia-Pacific allies' China strategy, increase the cost of their strategic adjustment to China and reduce the impact of strategic coupling on expected benefits, so as to guide them to adjust their friendly strategy to China.

Key words: US Asia-Pacific allies, strategy towards China, strategic coupling, evaluation procedure, strategic adjustment

王金阳. 美国亚太盟国对华战略调整的逻辑[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(12): 42-53.

Jinyang WANG. The logic of the strategy adjustment of US Asia-Pacific allies to China: Based on the "cost-benefit" analysis of alliance strategic coupling[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(12): 42-53.

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