多维视角下京津冀地区人口集疏时空变化

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.03.2019630

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

城镇化过程中，人口集疏是区域空间结构演化的根本动力。基于四普、五普、六普及2015年人口抽样数据，从多维视角分析京津冀地区近25年人口空间分布特征与集疏态势，研究发现：①京津冀地区人口总体分布仍呈西南稠密而东北稀疏格局，交通干线沿线人口地理集中度高；1990—2015年区县尺度上数量差异加剧，且在空间上存在强相关性：人口热点分布呈现以京、津和沿海区域为轴的“T”形结构，冷点区域则小幅扩张呈“C”形结构；②1990—2015年，京、津两市人口集疏空间表现出明显圈层特性，且人口扩散表现“核心-边缘”特性；河北各市人口集中在市辖区，且其周边区县人口流失程度呈阶段性加重。③综合城市规模等级与行政等级视角，城市规模与行政等级挂钩，城市行政等级越高其人口规模越大，人口集聚能力越强；主体功能分区视角下，开发区人口份额在提高，生态功能区人口份额在下降；京津冀地区人口集疏空间在2010年后发生转变，向沿海地区集聚趋势突出，表现出显著临海性。

关键词: 人口集疏, 多维视角, 主体功能分区, 临海性, 京津冀地区

Abstract:

In the process of urbanization, population agglomeration and dispersion is the fundamental driving force for the evolution of regional spatial structure.Based on data of the fourth, fifth and sixth population census and population sampling data in 2015, this paper analyzes spatial distribution characteristics and collection trend of the population in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the past 25 years from a multi-dimensional perspective. Results show that:①The overall population distribution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is still densely populated in the southwest and sparsely in the northeast.The geographical concentration of population along the main traffic line is higher. From 1990 to 2015, the number difference between districts and counties was intensified. And there was a strong spatial correlation: the distribution of population hot spots presented a "T" shaped structure with Beijing, Tianjin and coastal areas as the axis, while the cold spots slightly expanded into a "C" shaped structure.②From 1990 to 2015, the population space of Beijing and Tianjin showed obvious "core-edge" characteristics. Population of all cities in Hebei Province is concentrated in municipal districts, and the loss of population in surrounding districts and counties increases gradually.③From perspective of comprehensive city scale grade and administrative grade, city scale is linked to the administrative grade.The higher the city administrative grade is, the larger population scale will be, and the stronger population agglomeration ability will be. From perspective of main functional zoning, population share of development zones is increasing while that of ecological functional zones is decreasing. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the population gathering and sparse space has changed since 2010, and tendency to gather in coastal areas is prominent, showing a significant maritime presence.

Key words: population agglomeration and dispersion, multidimensional perspective, functional division, characteristics of proximity to coastal, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

袁婷, 曹卫东, 陈明星, 戚伟. 多维视角下京津冀地区人口集疏时空变化[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(3): 520-532.

Ting YUAN, Weidong¹ CAO, Mingxing CHEN, Wei QI. Research on the spatial pattern of population agglomeration and dispersion in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region from a multidimensional perspective[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(3): 520-532.

图/表 9

图1 京津冀行政区划图

Fig1 Administrative divisions of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

图2 京津冀地区人口分布图

Fig.2 Population distribution of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in different years

表1 不同年份相关指数

Tab.1 Correlation index in different years

参数	1990年	2000年	2010年	2015年
CV系数	0.75	0.79	0.93	1.01
Moran’s value	0.103	0.177	0.261	0.264
Z(I)	2.687	4.313	6.107	6.167
P值	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

图3 不同年份京津冀地区人口热点图

Fig.3 Population hotspots of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in different years

表2 不同规模城市人口统计

Tab.2 Population statistics of cities of different sizes

规模等级	城市数量/座 1990 2000 2010 2015				规模总量/万人 1990 2000 2010 2015
特大城市		1	2	2		1150.96	2991.80	3626.06
超大城市	2	1			1191.39	749.92
Ⅰ型大城市			1	2			318.72	787.28
Ⅱ型大城市	4	4	7	5	508.48	581.23	924.92	846.66
中等城市	38	47	48	47	2298.79	2993.42	3033.53	3044.30
Ⅰ型小城市	107	95	88	80	3729.13	3336.76	3043.32	2726.05
Ⅱ型小城市	13	12	8	7	210.61	197.94	128.23	112.08
总计	164	160	154	143	8216.40	9010.23	10440.53	11142.43

图4 京津冀地区不同时段人口集疏状态变化图

Fig.4 Population state change of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in different time periods

图5 1990—2015年不同行政等级城市份额占比和规模增量占比图

Fig.5 Share proportion and scale increment proportion of cities with different administrative levels from 1990 to 2015

图6 京津冀不同功能分区人口规模变化图

Fig.6 Population size changes of different functional divisions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

图7 临海性地理分区及规模变化

Fig.7 Shoreline division and population change

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