关键词: 地缘关系, 演变, GDELT, 东南亚, 中国

Abstract:

Based on the GDELT news event data, geo-relations were divided into conflict and cooperation. We also explored the evolution characteristics, driving factors and laws of the geographical relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries. Firstly, the geo-relations between China and Southeast Asian countries from 1979 to 2019 were divided into time stages by Sequential Cluster Method, then the methods of social network and community exploration and analysis were used to further analyze and interpret the structural relationship between 12 countries. Finally, the Shannon entropy equilibrium degree was used to analyze the bilateral relationship between China and Southeast Asian countries. Four main results are presented: First, the evolution of geo-relations between China and Southeast Asian countries shows the characteristics of stages and steps, which has gone through three stages. The trend of cooperation and conflict in each stage is similar, but the change of conflict is more drastic than that of cooperation. In addition, China's cooperation and conflicts gradually increase with the deepening of Southeast Asian countries' dependence on China's economy. Second, geographically concentrated and adjacent countries are more likely to form the same community. The relationships between the 12 countries are dominated by cooperation, and the scope of cooperation between countries has evolved from within the same community to different communities. In addition, China has gradually become the core of the network, the scope of cooperation between China and other countries has gradually expanded, and individual countries that have disputes with China over the South China Sea issue are more prone to conflicts. Third, in each stage, the bilateral relations between some countries are prominent, and the driving factors of different bilateral relations are also different, but the main problems are the state-to-state relations between China and Vietnam and the South China Sea issue. In addition, economic interests are the booster to promote the evolution of geo-relations. Fourth, in the short term, the South China Sea issue will still lead to local conflicts, but in the long run, the win-win trend of cooperation in the region is more obvious, in which the cooperation between countries with China as the core will cover 11 countries in Southeast Asia.

Key words: geo-relations, evolution, GDELT, Southeast Asia, China