泛亚高铁建设背景下中国西南-东南亚城市联系的多情景预测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.03.2021761

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

高铁建设对推进 “一带一路”倡议的互联互通发挥了基础作用，开展泛亚高铁建设背景下的国际间城市联系预测研究，可为设施联通中的交通基础设施建设提供决策依据。基于国际高铁建设的动态性和不确定性，针对2025、2030和2040年泛亚高铁建设情况提出Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ三种不同情景，选取东南亚七国与中国云桂两省区的50个主要城市作为研究对象，应用成本加权距离、加权平均出行时间和引力模型，分析城市可达性和联系强度的时空变化。结果发现从现状情景到情景Ⅲ是最优解：①城市对时间成本总值将压缩28.0%，一日达城市对成为主体，区域北部与中部的城市对可达性差距缩小；②各城市时间成本平均值将减少6.8 h，城市时间成本的空间结构由圈层式转变为多廊式；③各城市联系强度平均值向高联系强度区间集聚，研究区内城市间联系强度的空间差异缩小；④低联系强度区间的城市对由非均质网络发展为均质网络，高联系强度区间的城市对由北、南部局域网发展为全域网。

关键词: 泛亚高铁, 城市可达性, 城市联系强度, 多情景预测, 中国西南-东南亚

Abstract:

The construction of high-speed railways has played a fundamental role in advancing the connectivity of the "Belt and Road" strategy. Carrying out research on the prediction of international city linkages in the context of the construction of the Pan-Asia High-speed Railways can provide a basis for decision-making in the construction of transportation infrastructure in connection with facilities. Based on the dynamics and uncertainties of international high-speed railways construction, three different scenarios I, II and III are proposed for the construction of Pan-Asia High-speed Railways in 2025, 2030 and 2040. Using cost weighted distance, weighted average travel time and gravity model, 50 major cities in seven Southeast Asian countries, Yunnan Province and Guangxi Province in China were selected to analyze the spatial-temporal variation of city accessibility and linkage intensity. Results from the status quo to the hypothetical scenario Ⅲ showed that: ①The total time cost to the city pairs will be reduced by 28%, and one-day city pairs will become the dominant part. The gap between the accessibility of cities in the northern and central parts of the region will be narrowed; ②The average time cost of each city will be reduced by 6.8 hours, and the spatial structure of the city time cost will change from a circle layer to a multi-corridor; ③The average value of the linkage intensity of each city will be concentrated in the high linkage strength interval, and the spatial difference in linkage intensity between the seven countries and the two provinces, as well as between the cities, will be reduced; ④The city pairs in the low linkage intensity range will develop from a heterogeneous network to a homogeneous network, and the city pairs in the high linkage intensity range will develop from the northern and southern local area networks to a whole area network.

Key words: Pan-Asia High-speed Railway, city accessibility, city linkage intensity, multi-scenario forecast, Southwest China and Southeast Asia

赵敏, 张俊, 李鹏. 泛亚高铁建设背景下中国西南-东南亚城市联系的多情景预测[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(3): 1-16.

Min ZHAO, Jun ZHANG, Peng LI. Multi-scenario forecast of city linkage between Southwest China and Southeast Asia under the background of Pan-Asia High-speed Railway construction[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(3): 1-16.

图/表 10

表1 泛亚高铁涵盖区域及城市基本情况（2019年）

Tab.1 The basic situation of the regions and cities covered by the Pan-Asia High-speed Railways （HSR）(2019)

国家/省区	人口密度/ （人/km²）	人均GDP/ 万元CNY	主要城市
国家/省区	人口密度/ （人/km²）	人均GDP/ 万元CNY	中心城市	其他主要城市
越南	295.5	1.4	河内、胡志明	海防、清化、荣市、岘港、归仁、芽庄、芹苴
柬埔寨	84.5	0.9	金边	西哈努克、马德望、暹粒
老挝	30.1	1.3	万象	琅勃拉邦、沙湾拿吉、巴色
缅甸	80.7	1.1	内比都、仰光	曼德勒、密支那、腊戍、马圭
泰国	129.7	4.4	曼谷	清迈、乌隆他尼、彭世洛、呵叻、乌汶、素叻他尼、合艾
马来西亚	78.3	8.5	吉隆坡	亚罗士打、怡保、瓜拉登嘉楼、马六甲
新加坡	7 827.2	39.8	新加坡
云南	123.3	4.8	昆明	曲靖、大理、保山、芒市、普洱、景洪、蒙自
广西	239.7	4.3	南宁	百色、柳州、桂林、梧州

图1 泛亚高铁线路走向及辐射区域概况注：此图基于自然资源部标准地图服务系统的标准地图（审图号：GS（2016）1666号）进行绘制，底图无修改，下同。

Fig.1 Overview of Pan-Asia HSR lines and covered areas

表2 各级路网及坡度等级的运行时速和单位时间成本

Tab.2 Operating speed and unit time cost of different roads and slope grades

运行时速

/（km/ h）

图2 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的城市对时间成本变化矩阵（单位：h）

Fig.2 Time cost matrix of city pairs in the areas covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios （h）

图3 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的城市时间成本变化

Fig.3 Changes of time cost of cities in the areas covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios

图4 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的城市时间成本空间结构变化

Fig.4 Changes in the time cost spatial structure of cities covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios

图5 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的城市联系强度平均值

Fig.5 Average city linkage intensity in the areas covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios

表3 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的城市联系强度等级

Tab.3 Rank of city linkage intensity in the areas covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios

强度区间	强度等级	联系强度值/ （亿元·万人/h²）	城市对数量/对				比重/%
强度区间	强度等级	联系强度值/ （亿元·万人/h²）	现状情景	情景Ⅰ	情景Ⅱ	情景Ⅲ	现状情景	情景Ⅰ	情景Ⅱ	情景Ⅲ
低	低值	≤200	1 347	1 102	780	530	55.0	45.0	31.8	21.6
	较低值	201~1 000	649	771	904	942	26.5	31.5	36.9	38.4
	中值	1 001~5 000	279	348	447	558	11.4	14.2	18.2	22.8
高	较高值	5 001~20 000	103	129	186	235	4.2	5.3	7.6	9.6
高	高值	>20 000	72	100	133	185	2.9	4.1	5.4	7.6

图6 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的低联系强度城市对网络

Fig.6 The low linkage intensity city pair networks in the areas covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios

图7 不同情景下泛亚高铁涵盖区域的高联系强度城市对网络

Fig.7 The high linkage intensity city pair networks in the areas covered by the Pan-Asia HSR under different scenarios

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