基于MAS模拟的北极航运对生态环境的影响评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.02.2020853

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着全球气温不断升高、海冰不断融化缩减，北极海上运输活动日益增加，对北极大气和海洋生物等产生了潜在的威胁。从生态保护视角，以北极船舶海上溢油事故为例，评估北极海上运输活动对北极海洋生物的潜在影响；并采用多元回归分析方法探究影响因素的效应大小。考虑到北极航运和北极海洋生物之间潜在的相互作用，运用多主体系统（Multi-Agent System， MAS）建模并进行模拟分析。将北极航运的生物效应模型与北极航运海上运输模型、船舶溢油模型、溢油扩散模型相结合，以溢油污染区域的北极海洋生物损失率（直接接触溢油的北极海洋生物数量占比）和溢油油膜面积作为环境影响评价指标。结果表明，以北极东北航线为例，北极船舶交通量较少时，北极船舶溢油事故将影响1.1%~1.4%的北极海洋生物；交通量翻一番时，影响扩大至2.1%~2.7%。对北极海洋生物损失量影响最大的因素是溢油持续时间，北极水域通航期次之，北极船舶交通量影响再次之，溢油种类的影响最小。造成不同溢油种类中北极海洋生物损失率差异的重要原因是溢油面积不同。研究结果有助于评估北极航运对北极生态环境的影响，并可为北极海上事故应急响应提供参考。

关键词: 北极航线, 环境影响评价, 多主体系统, 北极船舶, 海洋生物

Abstract:

Maritime transportation activity in the Arctic is increasing, which is due to global warming and decline of Arctic sea ice, posing a threat to local atmosphere, marine organisms, etc. From the perspective of ecological protection, potential impact of marine transportation in the Arctic on marine organisms is evaluated using multi-agent system (MAS) simulation through a case of ship-based oil spills. Multiple regression analysis is then used to compare impacts of factors. Considering the interactions between Arctic shipping and Arctic marine organisms and that MAS is shown to be effective to handle such interactions, MAS is used for modeling together with simulation. The biological effects model of Arctic shipping is combined with Arctic maritime transportation model, ship-based oil spill model and oil spreading model. The two indicators of environmental impact assessment are loss rate of Arctic marine organisms within the oiled area (the proportion of the population within the oiled area that gets into contact directly with the oil spills) and oil area. The results show that, taking Arctic Northeast Passage as an example, when vessel traffic in the Arctic is low, oil spill accidents caused by tankers affects 1.1%~1.4% of Arctic marine organisms during navigation period. The loss rate can rise to 2.1%~2.7% with doubled vessel traffic. It also shows that oil life days have the greatest impact on the loss of Arctic marine organisms, followed by navigation period. Arctic vessel traffic ranks third among all factors. Oil types come last. The variation of loss rate of Arctic marine organisms under different oil types is mainly due to the difference in oil area. The results are expected to help evaluate the impact of Arctic shipping on Arctic marine environment and improve the understanding of emergency preparedness and response of maritime accidents in the Arctic.

Key words: Arctic routes, environmental impact assessment, MAS, Arctic vessels, marine organisms

骆巧云, 刘伟, 寿建敏. 基于MAS模拟的北极航运对生态环境的影响评估[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(2): 12-22.

Qiaoyun LUO, Wei LIU, Jianmin SHOU. Environmental impact assessment of shipping on Arctic marine ecosystems based on Multi-Agent System simulation[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(2): 12-22.

图/表 11

图 1 北极航运与北极海洋生物交互的模拟系统活动图

Fig.1 Diagram of the simulation system of the interaction between Arctic shipping and marine organisms

表1 北极航线设定及船舶选型

Tab.1 Setting of Arctic routes and ship selection

项目	设定
起讫港	摩尔曼斯克港至普罗维杰尼亚港，中途不停靠
北极航线	从摩尔曼斯克港出发往东，经喀拉海峡（Kara Strait）、维利基茨基海峡（Vilkitsky Strait）、桑尼科夫海峡（Sannikov Strait）和德朗海峡（Long Strait），出白令海峡（Bering Strait）后，到达普罗维杰尼亚港^[18]
船舶	Arc 4冰级油轮：油轮空载时安排靠港加油耗时1天，装货和卸货时间各为2天
船舶航速	满载航速取2019年夏季Arc4级油轮平均航速：9.3节；空载航速取10节

表2 各主体主要假设

Tab.2 Assumptions of agents

主体	假设
北极海洋生物主体	在分布范围内部随机活动^[16]
	有足够的食物补充，不考虑食物链的影响
	对溢油的回避反应忽略不计。虽然鸟类和哺乳动物一旦经历过溢油，有可能会试图避开它，但多数情况下，动物会对获取食物或其他行为有压倒性的需求，以至于回避可以忽略不计^[6]
溢油主体	溢油在瞬时排放，扩散现象在溢油后立即发生^[15]
油轮主体	北极有足够的油资源供油轮运输
	进出港油轮中一半是载油的，另一半是空载；载油油轮有可能会发生溢油事故
	一旦发生溢油则报废，新的替代船在15天后补充到船队

表3 实验主要参数及参数值

Tab.3 Parameters and values of simulation

变量名	变量值
溢油量	42 000 m³
北极海洋生物数量	2 400个
溢油种类	轻油（light oil）、中油（medium oil）、重油（heavy oil）、超重油（extra heavy oil）
不同溢油种类油密度	864.1 kg/m³（轻油）、873.8 kg/m³（中油）、937.1 kg/m³（重油）、1 001.6 kg/m³(超重油)
溢油持续时间	14天、28天、42天
北极船舶交通量	12艘、14艘、16艘、18艘、20艘、22艘、24艘
北极水域通航期	90天、120天、150天、180天

图 2 不同北极船舶交通量对北极海洋生物损失率的影响

Fig. 2 Impact of Arctic vessel traffic on loss rate of Arctic marine organisms

图3 北极海洋生物损失率与北极船舶交通量之间的相关关系

Fig. 3 Correlation between loss rate of Arctic marine organisms and Arctic vessel traffic

图4 溢油持续时间对北极海洋生物损失率的影响

Fig.4 Impact of oil life days on loss rate of Arctic marine organisms

图5 北极水域通航期对北极海洋生物损失率的影响

Fig.5 Impact of navigation period in the Arctic on loss rate of Arctic marine organisms

图6 不同溢油种类情况下的北极海洋生物损失率

Fig.6 Loss rate of Arctic marine organisms under different oil types

图7 北极水域通航期一定情况下不同情景的溢油面积

Fig.7 Oil area in different scenarios under certain navigation days in the Arctic

表4 模型回归系数和偏相关系数

Tab.4 Regression coefficients and partial correlation coefficients of the model

模型	未标准化回归系数		标准化回归系数Beta	t	显著性	偏相关系数
模型	$B$	标准误差	标准化回归系数Beta	t	显著性	偏相关系数
（常数）	-407.775	120.908		-3.373	0.001
NA	8.354	0.201	0.575	41.477	0.000	0.916
SH	52.623	1.689	0.432	31.156	0.000	0.864
OLD	26.666	0.591	0.626	45.117	0.000	0.927
OT	-1.449	0.122	-0.164	-11.848	0.000	-0.545

表4 模型回归系数和偏相关系数

Tab.4 Regression coefficients and partial correlation coefficients of the model

模型	未标准化回归系数		标准化回归系数Beta	t	显著性	偏相关系数
模型	$B$	标准误差	标准化回归系数Beta	t	显著性	偏相关系数
（常数）	-407.775	120.908		-3.373	0.001
NA	8.354	0.201	0.575	41.477	0.000	0.916
SH	52.623	1.689	0.432	31.156	0.000	0.864
OLD	26.666	0.591	0.626	45.117	0.000	0.927
OT	-1.449	0.122	-0.164	-11.848	0.000	-0.545

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