20世纪中叶以来全球经济地理格局的演化特征与模式

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.11.20230028

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在百年未有之大变局的历史性转折点上，采用重心模型、位序-规模模型和弹性系数等方法，对20世纪中叶以来全球经济地理格局演化的模式及特征进行分析。结果显示：全球经济地理格局呈现增长态势阶段性放缓、经济重心东移、经济发展极化程度下降以及以贸易为主要动力的发展态势，形成了区域性经济一体化发展、区域经济发展的空间溢出以及产业链关联等演化模式。未来，全球性与区域性经济治理、地缘关系等因素将持续影响全球经济地理格局演化，全球经济重心将持续东移，全球经济格局演化和国际秩序变革将加速推进，各国应携手应对全球性问题，推动人类经济社会发展。

关键词: 全球经济地理, 经济地理格局, 20世纪中叶, 全球化, 演化模式

Abstract:

Since the middle of the 20th century, peace and development have been the themes of the world. The global economy has been growing at an unprecedented speed, breadth and depth, and the economic center of gravity has shifted from west to east, profoundly changing the pattern of global economic geography. In the future, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, as well as changes in the global governance system and order, will further accelerate this change. In the face of changes unseen in a century, this paper summarized the overall evolution characteristics and patterns of global economic geography pattern since the middle of the 20th century. This paper concluded that the pattern of global economic geography is characterized by a gradual slowdown in growth, shift of the economic center of gravity to the east, decline in the degree of polarization, and trade as the main driver of development. Global economic geography has formed an evolutionary model of regional economic integration development, spatial spillover of regional economic development, and industrial chain linkage. In the future, the center of gravity of the global economy will continue to shift eastward, and the evolution of the global economic landscape and the transformation of the international order will accelerate. Countries should work together to address global issues and promote the economic and social development of mankind.

Key words: global economic geography, economic geography pattern, the middle of the 20th century, globalization, evolution model

金凤君, 冯瑜满, 姚作林, 陈卓. 20世纪中叶以来全球经济地理格局的演化特征与模式[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(11): 1-12.

Fengjun JIN, Yuman FENG, Zuolin YAO, Zhuo CHEN. Evolution characteristics and patterns of global economic geography since the Mid-20th Century[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(11): 1-12.

图/表 10

图1 1960—2019年全球经济增长动力与增长格局

Fig.1 The driving force and pattern of global economic growth from 1960 to 2019

图 2 1960—2019年全球经济重心的转移过程注：该图基于国家自然资源部标准地图服务系统下载的审图号为GS（2016）1667号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig.2 Evolution of the postion， direction and distance of world’s economic center of gravity from 1960 to 2019

图3 全球GDP位序-规模分布、位序-累计分布及OLS估计结果

Fig.3 Rank-size distribution， rank-cumulative distribution of global GDP and OLS estimation results

图4 1970—2019年进出口总额占GDP的比重及弹性系数数据来源：世界贸易组织数据库（https：//data.wto.org/）。

Fig.4 Share of global imports and exports and the elasticity coefficient，1970-2019

图5 20世纪中期以来区域贸易协定数量数据来源：世界贸易组织RTAs数据库（https：//rtais.wto.org/）。

Fig.5 Number of RTAs since the mid 20th century

图6 全球经济演化的区域经济一体化发展模式

Fig.6 Regional economic integration development mode of global economic geography pattern

表1 主要区域性组织社会经济发展指标及其占全球份额的比重

Tab.1 Indicators of socio-economic development of major regional economic integrations and their proportions in global shares

指标		人口		GDP		货物和服务进口		货物和服务出口		FDI流入
指标		总量/亿人	占比 / %	总量/ 亿美元	占比 / %	总量/ 亿美元	占比 /%	总量/ 亿美元	占比 /%	总量/亿美元	占比 /%
APEC	2000	25	41.30	199 237	59.11	34 606	43.74	33 225	41.9	5 434	34.63
	2010	27	39.30	357 844	54.08	77 826	42.07	78 045	40.98	7 938	41.21
	2019	29	37.62	524 034	59.93	107 023	44.07	105 911	42.74	8 949	59.74
NAFTA	2000	4	6.73	117 050	34.73	19 557	24.72	16 052	20.24	4 358	27.77
	2010	5	6.61	176 672	26.70	32 202	17.41	26 431	13.88	3 242	16.83
	2019	5	6.43	244 437	27.96	41 955	17.28	35 683	14.40	3 767	25.14
EU28	2000	5	7.98	89 182	26.46	29 821	37.69	30 094	37.95	7 981	50.86
	2010	5	7.29	170 225	25.73	63 829	34.50	65 678	34.48	6 062	31.47
	2019	5	6.70	185 099	21.17	81 131	33.41	86 218	34.79	1 205	8.04

图7 区域经济发展的空间溢出模式

Fig.7 The spatial spillover mode of regional economic development

图8 1970年以来全球价值链活动占全球贸易比重数据来源：2020年世界发展报告（https：//www.worldbank.org）。

Fig.8 GVC share of global trade since 1970

图9 全球经济演化的产业链关联模式

Fig.9 The industrial chain association mode of global economic geography pattern

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