高房价是否会挤出企业创新投入和产出？

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.11.20230530

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

房地产行业是国民经济的重要组成部分，涉及产业链环节众多，对经济体系的诸多领域产生影响。那么，房地产行业的快速发展是否会对企业技术创新产生影响？利用2011—2020年A股上市公司数据，考察了商品住房价格对企业创新投入和产出的影响，并将这种影响的实现分解为财政补贴、企业成本和企业投融资三种路径。研究发现，房价显著抑制了企业创新投入和产出，但在不同路径下房价对企业创新投入和产出的影响呈现出差异性。房价上涨带来的财政补贴的增加以及成本的上升会推动企业创新投入的增加，而房价上涨带来的企业投资方向的改变会对企业创新投入起到阻碍作用。从创新产出角度看，房价上涨只会通过企业投融资路径增加企业创新产出。房价对企业创新投入和产出的影响，在不同所有制企业、不同产业以及不同技术密集度的行业中存在显著差异。同时，创新型城市试点政策能够缓解房价对企业创新的挤出效应。因此，在当下中国经济转型的关键时期，应继续遏制房价过快上涨，并加大对企业创新的财税支持力度，同时将创新型城市试点政策逐步推广，从而促进中国经济的高质量发展。

关键词: 房价, 企业创新, 多维固定效应, 高技术产业, 创新型城市试点

Abstract:

The development of real estate industry inevitably have an impact on many fields of the economic system. Do high housing prices inhibit firms' technological innovation? Using data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2020, this paper examined the impact of commercial housing price on firm innovation input and output, and decomposed this impact into three paths: financial subsidies, firm costs, and firm investment and financing. It was found that housing price significantly inhibits firms' innovation input and output, but the effects of housing prices are not completely consistent under different paths. The increase in financial subsidies and costs caused by rising house prices will promote the increase of firm innovation input, while the change of firm investment direction caused by rising house prices will hinder firm innovation input. From the perspective of innovation output, housing prices can only increase firm innovation output through firm investment and financing mechanism. There are significant differences in the impact of housing prices on innovation input and output among firms with differences in ownership structure, industry, and technology intensity. We also found that an innovation-oriented city pilot policy and the increase of city size can alleviate the crowding-out effect of housing prices on firm innovation.

Key words: housing price, firm innovation, multidimensional fixed effects, high technology industry, pilot innovative city

段舒涵, 孙燕铭. 高房价是否会挤出企业创新投入和产出？[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(11): 79-93.

Shuhan DUAN, Yanming SUN. Do high housing prices crowd out firm innovation inputs and outputs?[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(11): 79-93.

图/表 9

图1 房价对企业创新产出的影响路径

Fig.1 Influence paths of housing price on innovation of firm

表1 变量定义与说明

Tab.1 Variable definition and description

变量类型	变量符号	变量描述与说明
被解释变量	Pia	企业发明专利申请数量加1取自然对数
	Paa	企业全部专利申请数量加1取自然对数
	Puda	企业实用新型和外观设计专利申请数量加1取自然对数
	Rdp	企业研发投入总额与营业收入之比
	Rd	企业研发投入总额取自然对数
解释变量	Hp	商品房平均销售价格的自然对数
企业层面控制变量	Asset	企业资产总计的自然对数
	Age	企业年龄的自然对数
	Ec	前三名高管薪酬占比
	Oir	营业收入增长率=本年营业收入增加额/上年营业收入总额*100%
	Profit	利润率=净利润/营业收入*100%
	Roa	资产收益率=净利润/资产总计*100%
	Rs	前十大股东持股比例
城市层面控制变量	Fin	金融机构年末贷款余额占GDP比例
	Gre	城市（市辖区）建成区绿化覆盖率
	Gro	GDP增长率
	Inc	城镇居民人均可支配收入取自然对数
	Sci	科技支出占地方政府财政支出比例
	Stu	普通高等教育在校学生数取自然对数
	Thi	第三产业在GDP中所占比例
中介变量	Sub	政府补贴取自然对数
	Cost	营业成本取自然对数
	Cf	$C f = l n A + A 2 + 1$ ，式中，A=净利润+财务费用－（资产总计）本期变动额+（货币资金）本期变动额－（负债合计）本期变动额－（吸收权益性投资收到的现金－分配股利、利润或偿付利息支付的现金）。企业现金流取自然对数

表1 变量定义与说明

Tab.1 Variable definition and description

变量类型	变量符号	变量描述与说明
被解释变量	Pia	企业发明专利申请数量加1取自然对数
	Paa	企业全部专利申请数量加1取自然对数
	Puda	企业实用新型和外观设计专利申请数量加1取自然对数
	Rdp	企业研发投入总额与营业收入之比
	Rd	企业研发投入总额取自然对数
解释变量	Hp	商品房平均销售价格的自然对数
企业层面控制变量	Asset	企业资产总计的自然对数
	Age	企业年龄的自然对数
	Ec	前三名高管薪酬占比
	Oir	营业收入增长率=本年营业收入增加额/上年营业收入总额*100%
	Profit	利润率=净利润/营业收入*100%
	Roa	资产收益率=净利润/资产总计*100%
	Rs	前十大股东持股比例
城市层面控制变量	Fin	金融机构年末贷款余额占GDP比例
	Gre	城市（市辖区）建成区绿化覆盖率
	Gro	GDP增长率
	Inc	城镇居民人均可支配收入取自然对数
	Sci	科技支出占地方政府财政支出比例
	Stu	普通高等教育在校学生数取自然对数
	Thi	第三产业在GDP中所占比例
中介变量	Sub	政府补贴取自然对数
	Cost	营业成本取自然对数
	Cf	$C f = l n A + A 2 + 1$ ，式中，A=净利润+财务费用－（资产总计）本期变动额+（货币资金）本期变动额－（负债合计）本期变动额－（吸收权益性投资收到的现金－分配股利、利润或偿付利息支付的现金）。企业现金流取自然对数

表2 变量描述性统计

Tab.2 Descriptive statistics of variables

变量	平均值	中位数	标准差	最小值	最大值
Paa	31.370 6	6	185.694 3	0	10 618
Pia	14.273 7	2	103.827 3	0	5 962
Puda	17.096 9	2	91.608 3	0	4 729
Rdp	4.950 9	3.700 0	5.365 4	0	98.390 0
Rd	2.151 1	0.538 3	9.521 4	0	293.917 6
Hp	14.955 7	10.755 0	11.209 2	2.286 0	55.889 0
Sub	6.340 6	6.551 7	2.084 9	－3.575 6	13.654 0
Cost	11.773 9	11.621 0	1.581 8	5.983 2	19.115 0
Cf	－4.350 6	－10.556 7	10.413 9	－17.616 4	18.182 1
Asset	3.617 1	3.412 3	1.278 6	0.660 4	10.215 8
Age	2.794 6	2.833 2	0.336 3	1.098 6	4.127 1
Ec	5.136 3	5.112 0	0.688 0	1.329 7	8.535 4
Oir	15.760 9	11.200 7	35.002 1	－86.395 8	678.433 6
Profit	0.086 6	0.079 8	0.234 6	－16.645 6	4.175 2
Roa	4.493 1	4.280 0	6.228 2	－124.010 0	54.150 0
Rs	60.017 1	61.260 0	14.654 6	10.570 0	101.160 0
Fin	0.016 0	0.016 3	0.006 2	0.002 8	0.053 0
Gre	42.212 1	42.170 0	3.789 2	14.760 0	58.110 0
Gro	8.848 5	8.910 9	4.675 2	－43.156 2	61.459 7
Inc	1.425 8	1.448 5	0.326 7	0.323 8	2.033 9
Sci	4.258 0	4.348 4	2.361 9	0.124 9	14.027 5
Stu	3.156 5	3.307 8	1.024 9	0.051 2	4.880 6
Thi	55.650 9	52.810 0	19.022 8	19.220 0	83.870 0

图2 房价和企业创新关系的时空格局演化趋势注：①基于自然资源部标准地图服务系统的地图（审图号：GS（2019）1837）绘制，底图无修改；②白色表示无数据区。

Fig.2 The evolutionary trend between housing price and firm innovation

表3 房价对企业创新的影响

Tab.3 Influence of housing price on firm innovation

变量	Pia		Paa		Puda		Rdp
变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Hp	－0.176 1^**	－0.246 1^***	－0.139 1	－0.183 6^**	－0.128 5	－0.148 7^*	－0.666 3^**
	(0.072 8)	(0.073 1)	(0.098 5)	(0.090 7)	(0.091 8)	(0.088 2)	(0.287 3)
Constant	1.734 6^***	2.559 4^***	2.239 3^***	3.257 9^***	1.701 3	2.106 1^*	8.478 3^***
	(0.1798)	(0.9041)	(0.2430)	(1.1665)	(0.2266)	(1.1050)	(2.8911)
控制变量	否	是	否	是	否	是	是
时间固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
企业固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
行业固定效应	是	是	是	是	是	是	是
观测个数	12 355	12 355	12 355	12 355	12 355	12 355	12 355
R²	0.783 0	0.784 2	0.797 0	0.798 0	0.788 9	0.789 6	0.834 8

表4 稳健性检验 (Robustness test)

Tab.4

变量	全样本		截尾1%
变量	Pia(1)	Rdp(2)	Pia(3)	Rdp(4)
Hp			－0.228 0^***	－0.630 5^**
			(－3.160 6)	(－2.169 5)
Hptir	－0.509 2^***	－2.050 0^***
	(0.157 2)	(－4.310 2)
Constant	2.475 2^***	8.675 4^***	2.222 5^**	7.115 7^**
	(0.887 4)	(2.894 4)	(2.488 8)	(2.364 3)
观测个数	12 355	12 355	12 147	12 147
R²	0.784 1	0.834 9	0.787 1	0.836 9

表5 房价对不同所有和不同技术密集度企业创新投入和创新产出的影响

Tab.5 Effects of housing price on innovation input and output of firms under different ownership structure and in different levels of technology intensity

变量	国有企业		非国有企业		高技术产业		非高技术产业
变量	Pia(1)	Rdp(2)	Pia(3)	Rdp(4)	Pia(5)	Rdp(6)	Pia(7)	Rdp(8)
Hp	－0.281 6^**	－0.350 7	－0.227 4^***	－0.745 5^*	－0.150 8	－0.937 3	－0.223 4^**	－0.441 3^*
	(0.129 3)	(－0.682 6)	(0.089 2)	(－1.945 2)	(0.149 0)	(－1.213 4)	(0.088 7)	(－1.815 3)
Constant	4.645 2^***	5.118 2	1.565 3	8.170 7^*	－0.792 9	7.059 2	3.407 6^***	7.574 4^***
	(1.245 8)	(1.310 4)	(0.973 2)	(1.932 7)	(1.616 2)	(0.901 3)	(1.088 5)	(3.567 8)
观测个数	3 346	3 346	8 976	8 976	3 860	3 860	8 487	8 487
R²	0.869 7	0.907 8	0.736 3	0.818 3	0.777 4	0.815 4	0.786 8	0.792 0

表6 房价对不同产业和不同试点政策城市的创新投入和创新产出的影响

Tab.6 Effects of housing price on innovation input and output of firms in different industries and different pilot policy cities

变量	第二产业		第三产业		创新试点政策城市		非创新试点政策城市
变量	Pia(1)	Rdp(2)	Pia(3)	Rdp(4)	Pia(5)	Rdp(6)	Pia(7)	Rdp(8)
Hp	－0.331 7^*** (0.088 1)	－0.553 7^* (－1.723 2)	－0.029 2 (0.183 6)	－0.668 6 (－0.972 4)	－0.193 5^** (0.086 8)	－0.714 1^** (－2.425 9)	－0.634 0^*** (0.213 3)	0.148 9 (0.406 8)
Constant	2.477 0^** (1.221 6)	7.391 5^*** (2.860 9)	1.539 2 (3.300 6)	13.609 2 (0.744 7)	1.841 7^* (1.008 6)	5.598 7 (1.462 5)	2.859 1 (2.743 0)	6.570 4 (1.025 0)
观测数	9 808	9 808	2 394	2 394	10 490	10 490	1 863	1 863
R²	0.782 6	0.820 9	0.771 1	0.862 0	0.785 4	0.833 7	0.784 1	0.840 0

表7 政府补贴机制、企业成本机制、企业投融资机制下房价对企业创新投入和产出的影响

Tab.7 Effects of housing price on firm innovation input and output under government subsidy mechanism、the firm cost mechanism and the firm investment and financing mechanism

变量	Sub(1)	Rd(2)	Pia(3)	Cost(4)	Rd(5)	Pia(6)	Cf(7)	Rd(8)	Pia(9)
Hp	0.426 3^*** (0.152 3)			0.118 2^*** (0.045 1)			－2.006 5^** (0.912 7)
Sub		0.015 2^*** (0.004 9)	－0.001 9 (0.007 3)		0.296 6^*** (0.042 4)	－0.019 1 (0.030 7)		0.001 5^*** (0.000 5)	－0.001 7^** (0.000 8)
Constant	1.878 6 (1.472 0)	5.437 9^*** (0.663 8)	2.157 9^** (0.935 8)	7.462 2^*** (0.645 2)	3.205 8^*** (0.660 2)	2.299 3^** (0.918 3)	1.129 2 (9.608 7)	5.480 5^*** (0.666 4)	2.149 2^** (0.932 4)
R²	0.687 8	0.922 7	0.783 9	0.976 2	0.925 1	0.783 9	0.350 4	0.922 7	0.784 0

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