广佛同城化发展背景下住房价格时空格局及机制研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.05.20230484

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

住房价格空间分异影响地区平衡发展，在广佛全域同城建设的背景下，以广佛同城化地区为研究区域，以同城化发展为视角，对2014—2021年广佛住房价格的时空格局和同城化发展水平进行研究，利用实证模型分析广佛同城化发展与住房价格分异之间的关系，考察广佛同城化发展对缩小住房价格差距的作用。研究发现：广佛住房价格增长变化大致呈现住房价格缓慢增长、快速增长、平稳增长3个阶段；广佛地区住房价格空间分布不平衡，广州住房价格高于佛山住房价格，两城市之间的住房价格差距不断增大，但差距增大趋势有所减缓，此外广佛住房价格呈现出不同等级特征；广佛同城化的发展影响广佛住房价格差距，与广佛发展差距关系密切，从而进一步影响广佛同城化的发展。

关键词: 住房价格, 同城化发展, 空间分异, 广佛同城地区, 实证分析

Abstract:

Housing price spatial differentiation affects regional balanced development, in the context of the whole urban integration construction of Guangzhou-Foshan, taking Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration area as the study area, from the perspective of urban integration development,, the spatio-temporal pattern of housing price and urban integration development level of Guangzhou-Foshan in the period of 2014-2021 was studied, and the empirical model was used to analyze the relationship between urban integration development and housing price differentiation of Guangzhou-Foshan, and to examine the effect of urban integration development of Guangzhou-Foshan on narrowing the housing price gap. The study finds that: the housing price growth in Guangzhou-Foshan roughly shows three stages of slow growth, rapid growth and stable growth; the spatial distribution of housing price in Guangzhou-Foshan is unbalanced, with housing price in Guangzhou higher than in Foshan, the housing price gap between the two cities is increasing, but the trend of the gap is slowing down, and housing price in Guangzhou-Foshan shows different levels of characteristics; the development of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration influences the housing price gap between Guangzhou and Foshan, which is closely related to the development gap between Guangzhou-Foshan area, and thus further influences the development of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration.

Key words: housing price, urban integration development, spatial differentiation, Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration area, empirical analysis

邹宇, 李禕. 广佛同城化发展背景下住房价格时空格局及机制研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(5): 136-149.

Yu ZOU, Yi LI. Spatio-temporal pattern and mechanism of housing price under the background of Guangzhou-Foshan urban integration[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(5): 136-149.

图/表 10

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一级指标		二级指标
内容	权重	内容	权重
空间功能同城化	0.338	城际铁路是否开通	0.248
		城际轨道交通开通线路	0.170
		跨界桥梁	0.460
		等级公路网密度比值	0.122
经济同城化	0.231	经济引力系数	0.513
经济同城化	0.231	产业结构差异指数	0.488
制度同城化	0.431	成立市长联席会议制度年数	0.136
		同城化合作协议数量	0.294
		是否上升为国家级战略	0.268
		上升为国家级战略年数	0.302

一级指标		二级指标
内容	权重	内容	权重
空间功能同城化	0.338	城际铁路是否开通	0.248
		城际轨道交通开通线路	0.170
		跨界桥梁	0.460
		等级公路网密度比值	0.122
经济同城化	0.231	经济引力系数	0.513
经济同城化	0.231	产业结构差异指数	0.488
制度同城化	0.431	成立市长联席会议制度年数	0.136
		同城化合作协议数量	0.294
		是否上升为国家级战略	0.268
		上升为国家级战略年数	0.302

年份	整体指数	城市间	城市内	贡献率
年份	整体指数	城市间	城市内	城市间	城市内
2014	0.141	0.068	0.074	48.03%	51.97%
2015	0.148	0.079	0.069	53.11%	46.89%
2016	0.169	0.089	0.081	52.47%	47.53%
2017	0.174	0.086	0.088	49.46%	50.54%
2018	0.150	0.083	0.066	55.73%	44.27%
2019	0.127	0.074	0.053	58.15%	41.85%
2020	0.145	0.071	0.075	48.65%	51.35%
2021	0.160	0.077	0.083	48.06%	51.94%

年份	整体指数	城市间	城市内	贡献率
年份	整体指数	城市间	城市内	城市间	城市内
2014	0.141	0.068	0.074	48.03%	51.97%
2015	0.148	0.079	0.069	53.11%	46.89%
2016	0.169	0.089	0.081	52.47%	47.53%
2017	0.174	0.086	0.088	49.46%	50.54%
2018	0.150	0.083	0.066	55.73%	44.27%
2019	0.127	0.074	0.053	58.15%	41.85%
2020	0.145	0.071	0.075	48.65%	51.35%
2021	0.160	0.077	0.083	48.06%	51.94%

同城化地区	等级类型	地区及数量	住房价格/（元/m²）
同城化地区	等级类型	地区及数量	2014	2021
中心城市（广州）	I级中心城市核心区	2个：天河区、越秀区	28 073	58 667
	II级中心城市中心区	2个：海珠区、荔湾区	21 295	42 234
	III级中心城市核心圈层区	3个：白云区、黄埔区、番禺区	15 897	29 912
	IV级中心城市外围圈层区	4个：南沙区、增城区、花都区、从化区	9 413	18 513
次中心城市（佛山）	V级次中心城市中心区	3个：禅城区、南海区、顺德区	6 534	15 023
次中心城市（佛山）	VI级次中心城市外围区	2个：三水区、高明区	6 759	7 978