“亚洲水塔”变化对中国周边地缘政治环境的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.02.2020063

世界地理研究 ›› 2020, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (2): 223-231.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.02.2020063

• 周边安全 • 下一篇

“亚洲水塔”变化对中国周边地缘政治环境的影响

杜德斌¹^,²(), 刘承良¹^,²(), 胡志丁¹^,², 马亚华²^,³

^1.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院，上海 200062
^2.华东师范大学世界地理与地缘战略研究中心，上海 200241
^3.上海师范大学商学院，上海 200234

收稿日期:2019-10-16 修回日期:2020-01-20 出版日期:2020-03-30 发布日期:2020-03-27
通讯作者: 刘承良
作者简介:杜德斌（1963-），男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事世界地理与地缘战略研究，E-mail:dbdu@re.ecnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项A类(XDA20100311)

The impact of “Asian Water Tower” change on the geopolitical environment around China

Debin DU¹^,²(), Chengliang LIU¹^,²(), Zhiding HU¹^,², Yahua MA²^,³

^1.Instititue for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
^2.Center of Geopolitics and Strategic Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
^3.School of Business, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai 200234, China

Received:2019-10-16 Revised:2020-01-20 Online:2020-03-30 Published:2020-03-27
Contact: Chengliang LIU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

被喻为“亚洲水塔”的青藏高原，是亚洲多条国际大河的发源地。全球气候变暖导致青藏高原冰川消融，进而引起周边河流长期径流的下降和季节分配的紊乱。这一自然变化叠加在流域内国家社会经济快速发展等人文变迁过程之上，造成水资源的供给与需求在总量及时间匹配上的失衡与错位，从而在该地区诱发更多水冲突、水危机等水政治问题。域外大国的介入则进一步加剧了本地区水政治的复杂性，并已在事实上威胁到中国与周边国家的战略互信。未来，中国应以包容互鉴、合作共赢的“丝路精神”为指引，基于既有国际规范，通过多边或双边谈判寻求化解水冲突，促进与相关国家的利益融合及流域国家命运共同体的实现。

关键词: “亚洲水塔”, 水资源冲突, 地缘政治环境, 流域国家命运共同体

Abstract:

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, known as the "Asian Water Tower", is the birthplace of Asian many great rivers. As a result of global warming, there has been a steep increase in uncertainty about glacier ablation and other basin hydrological processes. And the supply-and-demand coupling effect of water resources continues to strengthen with the rapid social and economic development of the surrounding countries. Hence, water crises, water conflicts and other supply-and-demand problems in surrounding countries are becoming more and more prominent. At the same time, the intervention of the great powers outside the region aggravates the complexity of the surrounding geopolitical environment. Building a community of shared future for surrounding countries is the best way to solve the contradiction and conflict of water resources, the key to promoting the construction of the Belt and Road innitiative, and the cornerstone of building the community of shared future for mankind.

Key words: "Asian Water Tower", water resources conflict, geopolitical environment, transboundary basin community of shared future

杜德斌, 刘承良, 胡志丁, 马亚华. “亚洲水塔”变化对中国周边地缘政治环境的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(2): 223-231.

Debin DU, Chengliang LIU, Zhiding HU, Yahua MA. The impact of “Asian Water Tower” change on the geopolitical environment around China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(2): 223-231.

图/表 5

图1 “亚洲水塔”周边地区水冲突事件变化

Fig.1 Temporal variations of water conflicts in and around the "Asia Water Tower"

图2 “亚洲水塔”周边地区国际水冲突规模的空间格局注：该图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS(2016)1667 号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig. 2 Spatial pattern of international water conflicts in and around the "Asia Water Tower"

表1 “亚洲水塔”周边地区国家间水冲突频次

Tab.1 Frequency of international water conflicts in and around the "Asia Water Tower"

涉及国家	频次	占比	涉及国家	频次	占比
印度-巴基斯坦	134	10.9%	中国-越南	61	5.0%
中国-泰国	89	7.3%	柬埔寨-中国	61	5.0%
老挝-泰国	87	7.1%	缅甸-泰国	47	3.8%
中国-老挝	79	6.4%	中国-缅甸	42	3.4%
柬埔寨-老挝	68	5.6%	老挝-缅甸	33	2.7%
柬埔寨-泰国	67	5.5%	柬埔寨-缅甸	15	1.2%
柬埔寨-越南	67	5.5%	缅甸-越南	15	1.2%
老挝-越南	67	5.5%	印度-尼泊尔	12	1.0%
泰国-越南	67	5.5%	其他	152	12.4%
孟加拉国-印度	62	5.1%

图3 “亚洲水塔”周边地区水冲突事件涉及国家

Fig. 3 National distributions of water conflicts in and around the "Asia Water Tower"

表2 “亚洲水塔”周边主要农业大国农村人口及比重

Tab.2 Rural population and proportion in main agricultural countries around the "Asia Water Tower"

国家	农村人口	总人口	比例
印度	8.92亿	13.53亿	65.9%
巴基斯坦	1.34亿	2.12亿	63.2%
印度尼西亚	1.2亿	2.68亿	44.8%
孟加拉国	1.02亿	1.61亿	63.4%
越南	6122.32万	9554.04万	64.1%
菲律宾	5662.47万	1.07亿	52.9%
缅甸	3728.49万	5370.84万	69.4%
泰国	3474.97万	6942.85万	50.1%
乌兹别克斯坦	1632.02万	3295.54万	49.5%
柬埔寨	1244.93万	1624.98万	76.6%

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“亚洲水塔”变化对中国周边地缘政治环境的影响

The impact of “Asian Water Tower” change on the geopolitical environment around China

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