主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (02): 26-35.

• 世界政治与经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

缅北冲突对“一带一路”在缅推进的影响机理

张晓伟,胡志丁,何琴   

  1. 云南师范大学
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-07 修回日期:2017-08-02 出版日期:2018-04-15 发布日期:2018-04-11
  • 通讯作者: 胡志丁

the influence mechanism of the north Mynamar conflict on the advancement of "The Belt and Road" in Mynamar

  • Received:2017-04-07 Revised:2017-08-02 Online:2018-04-15 Published:2018-04-11

摘要: 缅甸自建国以来,以缅族为主体的中央政府与各地少数民族武装之间的冲突不断。数十年以来,少数民族武装一直是缅甸政府的难题,缅甸的民族矛盾极为尖锐,其中以缅北冲突最为典型。如今,缅北冲突刚好碰撞中国“一带一路”战略,缅北区域是“一带一路”向南亚东南亚推进的关键之地,缅北长期的冲突势必影响“一带一路”在缅推进,进而影响到“一带一路”的整体推进。本文结合实地调研、问卷和访谈,紧扣边界及其效应,梳理了缅北冲突对“一带一路”的影响机理,得出以下结论:一方面,缅北冲突会从破坏中缅贸易通道、影响缅方政局稳定、增加投资风险、阻碍边贸发展这三个方面直接影响“一带一路”在缅推进,另一方面,缅北冲突会从破坏中缅友谊、域外大国介入、引发他国消极应对这三个方面间接影响“一带一路”在缅推进。最后针对缅北冲突对“一带一路”造成的影响提出部分对策建议,以期推进“一带一路”向前发展,实现中缅互利共赢。

Abstract: Since the founding of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar,the conflict between the central government and the armed forces of ethnic minorities exists continuously. For decades, the armed forces of ethnic minorities have been a difficult problem for the government of Burma, and the ethnic conflicts in Burma are extremely acute, among which the north Myanmar conflict is the most typical. Nowadays, the north Myanmar just conflicts with "The Belt and Road" strategy. Since the Burmese region is the key position for the "The Belt and Road" to South Asia and Southeast Asia, the long-term conflict of Burma region is bound to affect the advancement of the "One Belt and Road" in Myanmar, which further affects the "strategy" in the whole advancement process. Based on the field investigation, questionnaire and interview, the current paper is closely related to the border and its effects in combed with the influence mechanism of "The Belt and Road" the north Myanmar conflict, and draw the following conclusions. On the one hand, the conflict in the northern Burma destroys the bilateral trade channel, affects the Myanmar political stability, increases the investment risk, hinders the development of border trade and thus directly affects the "The Belt and Road" in advance; on the other hand, the conflict in northern Burma will damage the Sino-Burma friendship, invoke the extraterritorial powers involved, and invoke the other countries’ negative coping style, which indirectly influences the advancement of "The Belt and Road". Finally, the related countermeasures for dealing with the influence of the conflict in northern Burma on “the Belt and Road" are given for the purpose of promoting the" The Belt and Road "forward, and achieving the mutual benefit and win-win between China and Burma.