地缘关系对中国出口增长的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2019.06.2019028

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文结合现有文献中的方法和自身思考构建了地缘关系指标体系，利用Google的GDELT数据库，探索地缘关系对中国出口贸易增长的作用。本文发现地缘关系在短期和长期维度上对国家出口贸易带来的涉及政治、地理、制度和文化等方面的多重影响。一方面，政治关系反映了短期政府间关系的波动，对中国出口的影响十分明显。其中较高的政府交往频度不利于中国出口增长，而政府亲密程度对中国出口的影响则是积极的，中国与出口目的国亲密程度越高，则越有向该国出口的倾向。另一方面，地理关系、制度关系和文化关系同样对中国出口有重要影响。在地理关系中，较大的地理距离会减小中国对一地区出口的倾向，而邻接关系会增大中国对一地区出口的倾向。不同制度关系对中国出口的影响存在差别，没有证据表明经济制度距离对中国出口有额外的影响，而法律制度距离的增大则会导致中国不向该地区出口的倾向。文化关系同样对中国出口有重大影响，其中较大的文化距离会抑制中国对一地区的出口倾向，而如果中国对一地区文化影响力较大，中国对其出口则更加容易。此外，进一步分行业研究的结果表明，不同行业的产品出口对地缘关系的响应程度既存在共性，也存在差异。其中，地区间的亲密程度对全类别产品和服装类、机械设备类、交通工具类三类产品的出口都有显著的影响。

关键词: 地缘关系, 政治关系, 中国出口增长, 行业异质性

Abstract:

This paper combines the existing methods to construct a geo-relationship index system, using Google's GDELT database, to explore the role of geo-relations in the growth of Chinese exports. It is found that geo-relations have multiple impacts on export in the short-term and long-term, including political, geographical, institutional and cultural aspects. On the one hand, political relation which reflects the fluctuation of intergovernmental relations in short term has a significant impact on Chinese exports. A higher frequency of government contacts is not conducive to Chinese export growth, while the closer the government is to the destination country, the more likely it is to export to that country. On the other hand, geographical, institutional and cultural relations also shape Chinese exports. In terms of geographical relations, larger geographical distance will reduce China's tendency to export to a region, but the adjacency relationship will increase China's tendency to export to a region. The impact of different institutional relations on China's exports is different. As for economic institution distance, after considering the impact of economic factors, there is no evidence that it has an additional impact on China's export. However, the increase in the distance of the legal institutions will cause China not to export to a region. Cultural relations also have a major impact on China's export. Larger cultural distance will inhibit Chinese exports to a region. And if China has a greater cultural influence on a region, it will be easier for China to export to the region. In addition, the results of further industry level research indicate that geo-relations have different impacts on the export of different products. The most obvious commonality is that the intimacy between regions has a significant impact on the export of clothes, machines and transportations. this paper believes that when considering the issue of maintaining China's competitiveness in export, geopolitical relations should be considered in the same way as factors such as technological progress.

Key words: geo-relations, political relation, Chinese export growth, industrial heterogeneity

贺灿飞, 胡绪千, 杨文韬. 地缘关系对中国出口增长的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(6): 1-10.

Canfei HE, Xuqian HU, Wentao YANG. The influences of geo-relations on the growth of Chinese exports[J]. World Regional Studies, 2019, 28(6): 1-10.

图/表 3

表1 地缘关系变量设定

Tab.1 Geographical relationship variable setting

一级指标	二级指标	数据来源	数据描述	指标构建
政治关系	交往频度	GDELT	全球媒体报道中同时涉及到两国新闻数，新闻类别众多，其中与政府有关的以GOV表示	frequency
政治关系	亲密程度	GDELT	GDELT Project对每条新闻进行打分，分值为（-10）~10	intimacy
地理关系	地理距离	CEPII	两国最大城市间的距离	distance
地理关系	邻接关系	CEPII	两国是否相邻	neighbor
制度关系	经济制度距离	The Heritage Foundation	对各国的商业自由化、货币自由化、贸易自由化、投资自由化、金融自由化程度进行打分	$e c o_d i s t =$ 公式p
制度关系	法律制度距离	The Heritage Foundation	对各国的私有产权保护程度、政府清廉程度、税收负担程度、政府支出水平进行打分	$l a w_d i s t =$ 公式p
文化关系	文化距离	Hofstede	对各国的文化特征打分，包括个人主义/集体主义、对权威的服从性、风险厌恶/偏好、男女平等程度四项数据，分值为0~100	$c u l_d i s t =$ 公式p
文化关系	文化影响	孔子学院官网	各国孔子学院的数目	con_ins

表1 地缘关系变量设定

Tab.1 Geographical relationship variable setting

一级指标	二级指标	数据来源	数据描述	指标构建
政治关系	交往频度	GDELT	全球媒体报道中同时涉及到两国新闻数，新闻类别众多，其中与政府有关的以GOV表示	frequency
政治关系	亲密程度	GDELT	GDELT Project对每条新闻进行打分，分值为（-10）~10	intimacy
地理关系	地理距离	CEPII	两国最大城市间的距离	distance
地理关系	邻接关系	CEPII	两国是否相邻	neighbor
制度关系	经济制度距离	The Heritage Foundation	对各国的商业自由化、货币自由化、贸易自由化、投资自由化、金融自由化程度进行打分	$e c o_d i s t =$ 公式p
制度关系	法律制度距离	The Heritage Foundation	对各国的私有产权保护程度、政府清廉程度、税收负担程度、政府支出水平进行打分	$l a w_d i s t =$ 公式p
文化关系	文化距离	Hofstede	对各国的文化特征打分，包括个人主义/集体主义、对权威的服从性、风险厌恶/偏好、男女平等程度四项数据，分值为0~100	$c u l_d i s t =$ 公式p
文化关系	文化影响	孔子学院官网	各国孔子学院的数目	con_ins

表2 总体模型回归结果

Tab.2 Main regression results

变量	2SLS (1)	GMM (2)
lnfrequency	-0.0524^**	-0.0520^*
	(0.0255)	(0.0267)
lnintimacy	0.214^**	0.216^*
	(0.109)	(0.114)
lndistance	-0.158^***	-0.158^**
	(0.0590)	(0.0651)
neighbor	0.319^**	0.308^**
	(0.129)	(0.153)
lneco_dist	-0.0209	-0.0274
	(0.0675)	(0.0713)
lnlaw_dist	-0.269^***	-0.261^**
	(0.0924)	(0.106)
lncul_dist	-0.332^***	-0.324^***
	(0.107)	(0.117)
lnper_con_ins	25.56^**	25.43^**
	(10.69)	(11.51)
L.lnexport	0.708^***	0.709^***
	(0.0387)	(0.0430)
lngdp	0.316^***	0.315^***
	(0.0456)	(0.0501)
lnper_gdp	0.184^**	0.182^**
	(0.0769)	(0.0887)
Constant	-3.687^***	-3.668^**
	(1.331)	(1.447)
Observations	967	967

表3 分行业模型回归结果

Tab.3 Regression results of industry-specific models

变量	(3) lnmachine	(4) lnclothes	(5) lntransportation
lnfrequency	-0.0466	0.0134	-0.0882^**
	(0.0336)	(0.0446)	(0.0417)
lnintimacy	0.246^*	0.446^**	0.492^**
	(0.135)	(0.183)	(0.220)
lndistance	-0.229^***	-0.0648	-0.0209
	(0.0792)	(0.0719)	(0.0975)
neighbor	0.456^**	0.359^*	0.322
	(0.201)	(0.201)	(0.241)
lneco_dist	-0.0136	0.0744	-0.0106
	(0.0946)	(0.0991)	(0.122)
lnlaw_dist	-0.370^***	-0.0945	-0.611^***
	(0.123)	(0.137)	(0.133)
lncul_dist	-0.468^***	-0.159	-0.231
	(0.160)	(0.126)	(0.188)
lnper_con_ins	6.986	16.90	23.87
	(14.13)	(15.89)	(17.14)
L.lnexport	0.654^***	0.661^***	0.660^***
	(0.0479)	(0.0481)	(0.0278)
lngdp	0.352^***	0.271^***	0.508^***
	(0.0691)	(0.0850)	(0.0921)
lnper_gdp	0.336^***	0.142	0.204^*
	(0.121)	(0.114)	(0.104)
Constant	-4.822^**	-4.459^**	-10.90^***
	(1.899)	(2.158)	(2.578)
Observations	967	967	967

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