“一带一路”沿线汽车市场时空变化特征及影响因素研究：基于2005—2017年面板数据

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.04.2019171

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“一带一路”沿线是中国品牌汽车主要出口市场，研究“一带一路”沿线区域汽车市场变化对中国品牌汽车深入实施国际化战略有重要意义。该文采用空间自相关、新兴时空热点分析、面板数据模型等方法分析2005—2017年“一带一路”沿线59个国家汽车市场时空变化特征及影响因素，研究发现：①“一带一路”沿线国家汽车消费市场整体增长较为缓慢，销量占全球汽车销量比重呈现下降趋势；②不同区域的汽车市场存在较大差异，南亚地区汽车产销规模大而且增长较快；③大部分国家汽车市场主要依赖进口，南亚及东南亚地区汽车市场潜力较大；④新兴时空热点分析方法识别出印度、俄罗斯、伊朗及印度尼西亚为连续热点、加强的热点、持续的热点等三种时空变化模式；⑤ 面板数据动态差分GMM模型表明“一带一路”沿线滞后一期汽车销量、人均GDP、服务业增加值、汽车产量、城镇人口等因素对汽车销量有促进作用。研究认为在中美经贸关系频繁波动背景下，中国汽车企业应该高度重视“一带一路”汽车市场的重要性，在不同区域因地制宜地采取差异化国际化策略；根据“一带一路”汽车市场具有惯性效应这一特点，中国汽车企业可侧重印度、俄罗斯、伊朗、印度尼西亚等已有汽车市场规模较大的国家深入推进国际化战略。

关键词: “一带一路”沿线国家, 汽车市场, 时空变化特征, 新兴时空热点分析, 面板数据, 动态GMM模型

Abstract:

The areas along Belt and Road is main export market for Chinese brand cars, so studying changes in car market along Belt and Road is of great significance for Chinese brand cars to implement international strategies. This paper analyzed spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of car markets in 60 countries along Belt and Road from 2005 to 2017 based on methods including spatial autocorrelation, emerged Hot Spot Analysis, panel data model. The study found that: 1) The overall growth of car market along Belt and Road is relatively slow, and the proportion of sales to global car sales is declining; 2) There are large difference in car market in different regions, production and sales of car in South Asia are large and have grown rapidly; 3)The car market in most countries is mainly dependent on imports, and the car market in South and Southeast Asia has great potential; 4)The method called emerging Hot Spot Analysis identified three models of India, Russia, Iran and Indonesia as intensifying hot spot, persistent hot spot, consecutive hot spot; 5) The dynamic differential GMM model of panel data shows that factors such as lag variable of car sales, per-capita GDP, service industry added value, automobile production, urban population and other factors have a positive effect on automobile sales along the Belt and Road. Finally, this article put forward some suggestions for implementation of internationalization strategy of Chinese brand cars in countries along Belt and Road， including adopting differentiated international strategies in different regions according to local conditions, and focusing on countries with large auto markets such as India, Russia, Iran and Indonesia to further promote the internationalization strategy.

Key words: countries along the Belt & Road, car market, spatio-temporal evolution, emerging hot spot analysis, panel data, dynamic GMM model

巫细波, 程风雨, 罗谷松. “一带一路”沿线汽车市场时空变化特征及影响因素研究：基于2005—2017年面板数据[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(4): 814-824.

Xibo WU, Fengyu CHENG, Gusong LUO. Spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors of car markets along the Belt and Road， 2005-2017[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(4): 814-824.

图/表 6

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变量类型	变量名称	变量单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	汽车销量：CarXL	辆	229566.2	534240.6	800	3669277
解释变量	汽车产量：CarCL	辆	251292.5	603546.8	5264	4488965
	服务业增加值：ServGDP	亿美元	913.54	1678.59	15.14	12279.6
	人均GDP：PerGDP	美元	11082.42	14192.03	247	88565
	城镇人口：CityRK	万人	2297.73	5537.93	26.84	43877.74

变量类型	变量名称	变量单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	汽车销量：CarXL	辆	229566.2	534240.6	800	3669277
解释变量	汽车产量：CarCL	辆	251292.5	603546.8	5264	4488965
	服务业增加值：ServGDP	亿美元	913.54	1678.59	15.14	12279.6
	人均GDP：PerGDP	美元	11082.42	14192.03	247	88565
	城镇人口：CityRK	万人	2297.73	5537.93	26.84	43877.74

变量及统计指标	面板数据静态模型			面板数据动态模型
变量及统计指标	（1）OLS	（2）固定效应模型	（3）随机效应	（4）动态差分GMM	（5）剔除西亚18国	（6）剔除独联体16国	（7）剔除中亚4国
lnCityRK	0.798^*** (10.34)	0.873^*** (5.96)	0.796^*** (6.42)	0.347^*** (6.39)	0.555^** (2.59)	0.252^*** (4.55)	0.244^*** (6.35)
lnCarCL	0.0998^*** (5.94)	0.267^*** (4.93)	0.187^*** (4.98)	0.293^*** (7.99)	0.238^*** (7.58)	0.216^*** (5.00)	0.330^*** (7.42)
lnPerGDP	0.213^*** (5.00)	0.0450^** (3.20)	0.0470^*** (3.34)	0.00589^* (2.33)	0.184^*** (6.35)	0.0192^*** (11.17)	0.0154^*** (4.15)
lnServGDP	0.0654^* (2.12)	-0.00772 (-0.78)	-0.00734 (-0.74)	0.0185^*** (18.80)	0.0280^** (2.94)	0.00309^*** (5.12)	0.0106^*** (8.66)
L.lnCarXL	-	-	-	0.495^*** (48.44)	0.602^*** (24.97)	0.604^*** (32.62)	0.496^*** (26.38)
L.lnServGDP	-	-	-	-0.0265^*** (-14.40)	-0.0886^** (-2.85)	-0.00940^*** (-12.91)	-0.0175^*** (-11.30)
Constant	2.627^*** (4.06)	3.236^** (3.30)	4.042^*** (4.74)	1.644^*** (5.60)	-1.853 (-1.45)	1.415^*** (4.52)	2.276^*** (6.55)
样本数	660	660	660	550	400	490	510
R²	0.388	0.111	-	-	-	-	-
AR(1)P值				0.0025	0.0096	0.0003	0.0061
AR(2) P值				0.2343	0.0626	0.2367	0.3987
Sargan [Prob>chi2]				49.62206 [1.0000]	37.48244[1.0000]	46.22929 [1.0000]	35.14032[1.0000]

变量及统计指标	面板数据静态模型			面板数据动态模型
变量及统计指标	（1）OLS	（2）固定效应模型	（3）随机效应	（4）动态差分GMM	（5）剔除西亚18国	（6）剔除独联体16国	（7）剔除中亚4国
lnCityRK	0.798^*** (10.34)	0.873^*** (5.96)	0.796^*** (6.42)	0.347^*** (6.39)	0.555^** (2.59)	0.252^*** (4.55)	0.244^*** (6.35)
lnCarCL	0.0998^*** (5.94)	0.267^*** (4.93)	0.187^*** (4.98)	0.293^*** (7.99)	0.238^*** (7.58)	0.216^*** (5.00)	0.330^*** (7.42)
lnPerGDP	0.213^*** (5.00)	0.0450^** (3.20)	0.0470^*** (3.34)	0.00589^* (2.33)	0.184^*** (6.35)	0.0192^*** (11.17)	0.0154^*** (4.15)
lnServGDP	0.0654^* (2.12)	-0.00772 (-0.78)	-0.00734 (-0.74)	0.0185^*** (18.80)	0.0280^** (2.94)	0.00309^*** (5.12)	0.0106^*** (8.66)
L.lnCarXL	-	-	-	0.495^*** (48.44)	0.602^*** (24.97)	0.604^*** (32.62)	0.496^*** (26.38)
L.lnServGDP	-	-	-	-0.0265^*** (-14.40)	-0.0886^** (-2.85)	-0.00940^*** (-12.91)	-0.0175^*** (-11.30)
Constant	2.627^*** (4.06)	3.236^** (3.30)	4.042^*** (4.74)	1.644^*** (5.60)	-1.853 (-1.45)	1.415^*** (4.52)	2.276^*** (6.55)
样本数	660	660	660	550	400	490	510
R²	0.388	0.111	-	-	-	-	-
AR(1)P值				0.0025	0.0096	0.0003	0.0061
AR(2) P值				0.2343	0.0626	0.2367	0.3987
Sargan [Prob>chi2]				49.62206 [1.0000]	37.48244[1.0000]	46.22929 [1.0000]	35.14032[1.0000]

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