“互联网+”对中国制造业就业的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.03.2020225

世界地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 577-588.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.03.2020225

“互联网+”对中国制造业就业的影响

徐梦冉¹(), 李振发², 贺灿飞¹^,³(), 李伟⁴^,⁵

^1.北京大学城市与环境学院，北京 100871
^2.北京大学城市规划与设计学院，广东深圳 518055
^3.北京大学－林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心，北京 100871
^4.中国宏观经济研究院，北京 100038
^5.中国人民大学经济学院，北京 100872

收稿日期:2020-04-19 修回日期:2020-06-16 出版日期:2021-05-20 发布日期:2021-06-08
通讯作者: 贺灿飞
作者简介:徐梦冉（1994-），女，硕士，研究方向为城市与区域经济发展，E-mail: xumengran@pku.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41731278);国家自然科学杰出青年基金项目(41425001)

The impact of "Internet +" on the manufacturing employment in China

Mengran XU¹(), Zhenfa LI², Canfei HE¹^,³(), Wei LI⁴^,⁵

^1.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
^2.College of Urban Planning and Design, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China
^3.Peking University-Lincoln Institute Center for Urban Development and Land Policy, Beijing 100871, China
^4.Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, Beijing 100038, China
^5.School of Economics, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China

Received:2020-04-19 Revised:2020-06-16 Online:2021-05-20 Published:2021-06-08
Contact: Canfei HE

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于中国工业企业数据库和阿里巴巴平台数据，从企业和行业两个层面考察“互联网+”对中国制造业就业增长的影响。结果显示，就企业层面而言，“互联网+”阻碍了制造业企业的就业增长。具体分企业规模来看，“互联网+”能够促进大型企业就业增长，但对小微企业起到一定抑制作用。就行业层面而言，“互联网+”程度加深对行业就业增长产生负面影响。从产业集聚来看，地方专业化、产业多样化和产业内竞争三类集聚动态外部性显著促进企业就业增长和行业就业增长，但地方专业化和产业内竞争会阻碍“互联网+”对行业就业带动作用的发挥。此外，“互联网+”和产业集聚的就业影响具有地区差异性。

关键词: “互联网+”, 制造业就业, 产业集聚

Abstract:

Based on the annual survey of industrial firms and the data of Alibaba, this paper studies the impact of "Internet +" on the manufacturing employment growth at both firm and industry levels. Empirical results suggest that "Internet +" promotes the employment growth of large enterprises but hinders that of small and micro enterprises. As the number of enterprises which utilize this kind of new technology rises, employment growth of the whole industry slows down. In addition, the dynamic externalities of industrial agglomeration including industrial specialization, industrial diversity and industrial competition can boost firm-level and industry-level employment growth, but both the industrial specialization and the industrial competition make it difficult for "Internet +" to play a positive role in driving industry-level employment growth. Besides, the impacts of "Internet +" and the industrial agglomeration on the employment growth are different among districts.

Key words: "Internet +", manufacturing employment, industrial agglomeration

徐梦冉, 李振发, 贺灿飞, 李伟. “互联网+”对中国制造业就业的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(3): 577-588.

Mengran XU, Zhenfa LI, Canfei HE, Wei LI. The impact of "Internet +" on the manufacturing employment in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(3): 577-588.

图/表 6

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变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
	all	large	medium	small	east	middle	west
EC	-0.040^*	1.790^*	-0.076	-0.024^**	-0.043^*	-0.128	0.340^***
	(0.023)	(0.933)	(0.080)	(0.012)	(0.025)	(0.088)	(0.110)
LQ	0.001^***	0.004	0.001	0.001^***	0.001^**	0.001	0.002^***
	(0.000)	(0.005)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)
DIV	0.098^***	-0.112	-0.126	0.060^***	0.093^***	-0.241^***	-0.050
	(0.023)	(0.659)	(0.085)	(0.011)	(0.027)	(0.086)	(0.079)
PORTER	0.013^***	0.299^***	0.076^***	0.009^***	0.012^***	0.012^***	0.020^***
	(0.000)	(0.019)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
L	-0.008^***	-0.001	-0.079^***	-0.160^***	-0.008^***	-0.007^***	-0.007^***
	(0.000)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
CAPDEN	0.012^***	0.257^***	0.018^***	0.005^***	0.013^***	0.007^***	0.024^***
	(0.000)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
EXP	-0.110^***	-3.193^***	-0.457^***	-0.006	-0.122^***	-0.044	-0.159^***
	(0.009)	(0.245)	(0.031)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.032)	(0.036)
AGE	-0.003^***	0.007	-0.009^***	-0.002^***	-0.003^***	-0.003^***	-0.002^*
	(0.000)	(0.007)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
SOE	0.116^***	0.096	0.258^***	0.050^***	0.090^***	0.117^**	0.142^***
	(0.023)	(0.359)	(0.069)	(0.012)	(0.031)	(0.048)	(0.041)
OUT	-0.003	-0.195^***	-0.013^*	0.003^**	-0.004	-0.001	-0.062^***
	(0.003)	(0.041)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.014)	(0.015)
UE	0.014^***	0.033	0.056^***	0.008^***	0.010^**	-0.064	0.383^***
	(0.004)	(0.098)	(0.013)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.060)	(0.096)
PGDP	-0.011	0.153	-0.011	-0.004	0.000	0.054	-0.344^***
	(0.019)	(0.442)	(0.055)	(0.010)	(0.021)	(0.093)	(0.066)
_cons	-0.033	-1.307^*	0.581^***	0.137^***	0.001	0.102^*	-0.274^***
	(0.024)	(0.735)	(0.092)	(0.012)	(0.030)	(0.057)	(0.054)
R²	0.051	0.049	0.115	0.057	0.055	0.027	0.123
adj. R²	0.051	0.048	0.115	0.057	0.055	0.027	0.123
N	1847221	37970	368689	1440562	1406199	283571	157451

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
	all	large	medium	small	east	middle	west
EC	-0.040^*	1.790^*	-0.076	-0.024^**	-0.043^*	-0.128	0.340^***
	(0.023)	(0.933)	(0.080)	(0.012)	(0.025)	(0.088)	(0.110)
LQ	0.001^***	0.004	0.001	0.001^***	0.001^**	0.001	0.002^***
	(0.000)	(0.005)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)
DIV	0.098^***	-0.112	-0.126	0.060^***	0.093^***	-0.241^***	-0.050
	(0.023)	(0.659)	(0.085)	(0.011)	(0.027)	(0.086)	(0.079)
PORTER	0.013^***	0.299^***	0.076^***	0.009^***	0.012^***	0.012^***	0.020^***
	(0.000)	(0.019)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
L	-0.008^***	-0.001	-0.079^***	-0.160^***	-0.008^***	-0.007^***	-0.007^***
	(0.000)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
CAPDEN	0.012^***	0.257^***	0.018^***	0.005^***	0.013^***	0.007^***	0.024^***
	(0.000)	(0.008)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)
EXP	-0.110^***	-3.193^***	-0.457^***	-0.006	-0.122^***	-0.044	-0.159^***
	(0.009)	(0.245)	(0.031)	(0.005)	(0.010)	(0.032)	(0.036)
AGE	-0.003^***	0.007	-0.009^***	-0.002^***	-0.003^***	-0.003^***	-0.002^*
	(0.000)	(0.007)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
SOE	0.116^***	0.096	0.258^***	0.050^***	0.090^***	0.117^**	0.142^***
	(0.023)	(0.359)	(0.069)	(0.012)	(0.031)	(0.048)	(0.041)
OUT	-0.003	-0.195^***	-0.013^*	0.003^**	-0.004	-0.001	-0.062^***
	(0.003)	(0.041)	(0.008)	(0.002)	(0.003)	(0.014)	(0.015)
UE	0.014^***	0.033	0.056^***	0.008^***	0.010^**	-0.064	0.383^***
	(0.004)	(0.098)	(0.013)	(0.002)	(0.004)	(0.060)	(0.096)
PGDP	-0.011	0.153	-0.011	-0.004	0.000	0.054	-0.344^***
	(0.019)	(0.442)	(0.055)	(0.010)	(0.021)	(0.093)	(0.066)
_cons	-0.033	-1.307^*	0.581^***	0.137^***	0.001	0.102^*	-0.274^***
	(0.024)	(0.735)	(0.092)	(0.012)	(0.030)	(0.057)	(0.054)
R²	0.051	0.049	0.115	0.057	0.055	0.027	0.123
adj. R²	0.051	0.048	0.115	0.057	0.055	0.027	0.123
N	1847221	37970	368689	1440562	1406199	283571	157451

变量	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)
	all	east	middle	west	all	east	middle	west
ECP	-0.038^*	-0.094^***	-0.027	-0.024	0.420^***	0.843^***	-0.063	0.004
	(0.023)	(0.031)	(0.021)	(0.030)	(0.055)	(0.080)	(0.056)	(0.067)
LQ	0.046^***	0.098^***	-0.003	0.002	0.047^***	0.106^***	-0.003	0.002
	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.001)
DIV	0.067^***	0.101^***	-0.034^*	-0.004	0.067^***	0.105^***	-0.034^*	-0.005
	(0.018)	(0.027)	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.027)	(0.018)	(0.021)
PORTER	0.185^***	0.257^***	0.028^***	0.045^***	0.187^***	0.264^***	0.028^***	0.045^***
	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)
LQECP*					-0.008^***	-0.028^***	0.001	-0.000
					(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.003)
DIVECP*					-0.010	-0.028	0.003	0.007
					(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.017)	(0.019)
PORTERECP*					-0.016^***	-0.029^***	0.001	-0.002^*
					(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
CAPDEN	0.194^***	0.492^***	0.035	0.083^**	0.197^***	0.510^***	0.035	0.083^**
	(0.036)	(0.070)	(0.025)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.070)	(0.025)	(0.036)
OUT	0.075^***	0.096^***	-0.012	-0.007	0.076^***	0.096^***	-0.012	-0.007
	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)
UE	0.119^***	0.153^***	-0.081	0.398	0.117^***	0.147^***	-0.081	0.398
	(0.035)	(0.044)	(0.139)	(0.306)	(0.035)	(0.044)	(0.139)	(0.306)
MAR	0.012	0.142^***	-0.018	0.002	0.012	0.142^***	-0.018	0.002
	(0.018)	(0.033)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.033)	(0.015)	(0.015)
FDI	0.028	0.108	-0.031	-0.155	0.037	0.139	-0.031	-0.153
	(0.076)	(0.102)	(0.096)	(0.182)	(0.076)	(0.101)	(0.096)	(0.182)
PGDP	0.042^**	0.059^***	-0.106^***	0.058^***	0.042^**	0.062^***	-0.106^***	0.058^***
	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.027)	(0.022)	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.027)	(0.022)
HC	0.102^***	0.163^***	0.023	-0.015	0.100^***	0.159^***	0.023	-0.015
	(0.014)	(0.022)	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.014)	(0.022)	(0.014)	(0.016)
WAGE	-0.285^***	-0.454^***	0.179^***	0.064	-0.282^***	-0.454^***	0.178^***	0.064
	(0.051)	(0.072)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.051)	(0.071)	(0.061)	(0.071)
_cons	-3.245^***	-6.007^***	0.316^**	-0.470^***	-3.307^***	-6.182^***	0.317^**	-0.469^***
	(0.183)	(0.343)	(0.151)	(0.172)	(0.182)	(0.340)	(0.151)	(0.173)
R²	0.374	0.519	0.063	0.128	0.377	0.527	0.063	0.128
adj. R²	0.374	0.519	0.063	0.127	0.377	0.527	0.063	0.127
N	284042	161637	81363	41042	284042	161637	81363	41042

变量	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)	(15)
	all	east	middle	west	all	east	middle	west
ECP	-0.038^*	-0.094^***	-0.027	-0.024	0.420^***	0.843^***	-0.063	0.004
	(0.023)	(0.031)	(0.021)	(0.030)	(0.055)	(0.080)	(0.056)	(0.067)
LQ	0.046^***	0.098^***	-0.003	0.002	0.047^***	0.106^***	-0.003	0.002
	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.001)	(0.002)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.001)
DIV	0.067^***	0.101^***	-0.034^*	-0.004	0.067^***	0.105^***	-0.034^*	-0.005
	(0.018)	(0.027)	(0.018)	(0.021)	(0.018)	(0.027)	(0.018)	(0.021)
PORTER	0.185^***	0.257^***	0.028^***	0.045^***	0.187^***	0.264^***	0.028^***	0.045^***
	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.000)	(0.001)
LQECP*					-0.008^***	-0.028^***	0.001	-0.000
					(0.003)	(0.005)	(0.002)	(0.003)
DIVECP*					-0.010	-0.028	0.003	0.007
					(0.015)	(0.020)	(0.017)	(0.019)
PORTERECP*					-0.016^***	-0.029^***	0.001	-0.002^*
					(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
CAPDEN	0.194^***	0.492^***	0.035	0.083^**	0.197^***	0.510^***	0.035	0.083^**
	(0.036)	(0.070)	(0.025)	(0.036)	(0.036)	(0.070)	(0.025)	(0.036)
OUT	0.075^***	0.096^***	-0.012	-0.007	0.076^***	0.096^***	-0.012	-0.007
	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)	(0.006)	(0.007)	(0.009)	(0.014)
UE	0.119^***	0.153^***	-0.081	0.398	0.117^***	0.147^***	-0.081	0.398
	(0.035)	(0.044)	(0.139)	(0.306)	(0.035)	(0.044)	(0.139)	(0.306)
MAR	0.012	0.142^***	-0.018	0.002	0.012	0.142^***	-0.018	0.002
	(0.018)	(0.033)	(0.015)	(0.015)	(0.018)	(0.033)	(0.015)	(0.015)
FDI	0.028	0.108	-0.031	-0.155	0.037	0.139	-0.031	-0.153
	(0.076)	(0.102)	(0.096)	(0.182)	(0.076)	(0.101)	(0.096)	(0.182)
PGDP	0.042^**	0.059^***	-0.106^***	0.058^***	0.042^**	0.062^***	-0.106^***	0.058^***
	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.027)	(0.022)	(0.017)	(0.023)	(0.027)	(0.022)
HC	0.102^***	0.163^***	0.023	-0.015	0.100^***	0.159^***	0.023	-0.015
	(0.014)	(0.022)	(0.014)	(0.016)	(0.014)	(0.022)	(0.014)	(0.016)
WAGE	-0.285^***	-0.454^***	0.179^***	0.064	-0.282^***	-0.454^***	0.178^***	0.064
	(0.051)	(0.072)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.051)	(0.071)	(0.061)	(0.071)
_cons	-3.245^***	-6.007^***	0.316^**	-0.470^***	-3.307^***	-6.182^***	0.317^**	-0.469^***
	(0.183)	(0.343)	(0.151)	(0.172)	(0.182)	(0.340)	(0.151)	(0.173)
R²	0.374	0.519	0.063	0.128	0.377	0.527	0.063	0.128
adj. R²	0.374	0.519	0.063	0.127	0.377	0.527	0.063	0.127
N	284042	161637	81363	41042	284042	161637	81363	41042

[1]	刘桂梅, 王茂军. 基于企业点数据的在京日企空间集聚模式[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 925-936.
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[3]	叶忠, 褚劲风, 顾怡. 上海游戏产业空间集聚及演化研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(3): 155-162.
[4]	任晓晓, 丁疆辉, 靳字含. 产业依托型淘宝村时空发展特征及其影响因素[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(3): 173-182.
[5]	江娟王疆. 母国集聚与产业集聚对中国企业对美直接投资区位选择的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2017, 26(04): 20-30.

“互联网+”对中国制造业就业的影响

The impact of "Internet +" on the manufacturing employment in China

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