中国海军崛起及其对东亚安全秩序的影响

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2020600

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，中国海军的发展开始进入快车道。武器装备规模的扩大、武器装备性能的提升以及武器装备体系的完善是中国海军崛起的主要表现。中国海军的崛起是需求侧和供给侧合力作用的结果。需求侧指的是应对日益严峻的外部压力、保护海外利益和海上交通线、维护国家主权和领土完整以及汲取历史教训的需要；供给侧指的是中国综合国力的提高、中国对海洋和海权重视度的提升以及中俄关系的稳定提供了中国发展海军的良好内外部环境，使得中国可以发展出强大海军。中国海军的崛起将会给东亚安全秩序带来深远的影响，这些影响主要集中在改变东亚地缘结构、冲击美国同盟体系、安全公共物品供给这三方面。

关键词: 中国海军崛起, 东亚安全秩序, 陆海合一, 美国同盟体系, 安全公共物品

Abstract:

As for the impact of China's rise on the security order of East Asia, most of the existing discussions focus on the impact of China's economic power on the security order of East Asia, and relatively ignore the impact of China's military power on the security order of East Asia. As an important part of the rise of China's military power, the rise of China's navy will have a profound impact on the security order in East Asia. The rise of the Chinese navy is mainly reflected in three aspects: the expansion of weapons and equipment scale, the improvement of weapons and equipment performance and the improvement of weapons and equipment system. The rise of the Chinese navy is the result of the combination of demand side and supply side. The demand side refers to the need to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, protect overseas interests and maritime lines of communication, respond to U.S. hegemonic pressures, and learn lessons from history has shaped China's perceived need to develop a strong navy; the supply side refers to the improvement of China's comprehensive national strength and the Communist Party of China The strong political leadership of the Communist Party of China and the friendly and stable relations between China and Russia after the cold war provide a good internal and external environment for China to develop a strong navy. The impact of the rise of the Chinese navy on East Asian security has been concentrated in six areas.The rise of the Chinese navy will bring about the unity of land and sea in the geographical pattern of East Asia, may lead to the loosening or even disintegration of the United States East Asia alliance system, may intensify the development of regional armaments, may increase the risk of regional conflicts, and will enhance China's ability to provide regional security public goods. From the perspective of China, there are both opportunities and challenges,and the opportunities outweigh the challenges..

Key words: China, navy, rise, East Asian security order, impact

丁思齐, 王学玉. 中国海军崛起及其对东亚安全秩序的影响[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 744-756.

Siqi DING, Xueyu WANG. The rise of the Chinese navy and its impact on the East Asia security order[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 744-756.

图/表 4

图1 2000至2017年中美海军下水总吨位比较资料来源：Nick Childs， Tom Waldwyn. China’s naval shipbuilding： delivering on its ambition in a big way.https：//www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2018/05/china-naval-shipbuilding.

Fig.1 Comparison of full-load tonnage of Chinese and American naval launched from 2000 to 2017

图2 中国军费支出情况（单位：2017年百万现价美元）资料来源：https：//www.sipri.org/databases/milex.

Fig.2 China's military spending

图3 中俄（苏）关系发展趋势资料来源： http：//www.imir.tsinghua.edu.cn/publish/iis/7522/index.html.

Fig.3 Development trend of Sino-Russian （Soviet） relations

表1 中国与其他东亚国家海空军实力对比

Tab. 1 Comparison of naval and air force strength between China and other East Asian countries

国家	航空母舰	驱逐舰	护卫舰	轻型护卫舰	潜艇	战斗机
中国	2	50	46	72	79	1200
日本	4	37	0	6	20	256
韩国	0	12	14	12	22	402
新加坡	0	0	6	6	0	100
越南	0	0	9	14	6	75
印度尼西亚	0	0	7	24	5	41
菲律宾	0	0	2	4	0	-

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