“一带一路”沿线主要国家旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口协调度时空演变

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.05.2020086

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于世界经济论坛《旅游竞争力报告》和联合国商品贸易数据库，采用熵值法、耦合协调度及相对发展度模型、GIS空间分析等方法，分析2007—2015年“一带一路”沿线49国旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口间的耦合协调发展关系及其时空演变。结果表明：①49国旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口整体处于协调状态，随时间变化不明显，多数长期处于中度协调状态；②从空间演变趋势看，耦合协调度区域分异和变化程度均较明显，东西方向上由“U”型逐渐向一字型演变，而南北方向上由“U”型逐步演变为“L”型格局，其中，中亚地区耦合协调度等级最低，其次是南亚地区，东亚、东南亚、中东欧地区耦合协调度相对较好；③各国旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口耦合协调类型分为两类——同步型和旅游服务出口滞后型；其中，以旅游服务出口滞后型数量最多，占比高达87.7%，而同步型国家主要分布在东亚和西亚地区，数量呈现缓慢增长趋势，至2015年该类型国家主要为中国、泰国、新加坡、卡塔尔、塞浦路斯、阿联酋等。

关键词: “一带一路”, 旅游竞争力, 旅游服务出口, 耦合协调, 时空演变

Abstract:

Based on the World Economic Forum Tourism Competitiveness Report and the United Nations Commodity Trade Database, using the entropy evaluation method, coupling coordination and relative development model, GIS analysis to study the coupling and coordinated development relationship between the tourism competitiveness and tourism service export of 49 countries along the "Belt and Road" and its space-time evolution.Results show that:(1) The tourism competitiveness of the 49 countries and export of tourism services are in a state of coordination as a whole, which does not change significantly. Most countries have been in a state of moderate coordination for a long time; (2) Obviously, the east-west direction has gradually evolved from a "U" shape to a horizontal line while the north-south direction has gradually evolved from a "U" shape to an "L" shape. Central Asia has the lowest level of coupling coordination, followed by South Asia. East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe are relatively well coordinated; (3) There are two types of coordination and coordination of tourism competitiveness and tourism service export, tourism service export lag has the largest number, accounting for 87.7%, while synchronous countries are mainly distributed in East and West Asia, the number showed a slow increasing trend.China, Thailand, Singapore, Qatar, Cyprus, and the United Arab Emirates have achieved tourism competitiveness and tourism service export synchronization in 2015.

Key words: "Belt and Road" Initiative, tourism competitiveness, tourism service trade export, coupling coordination, time and space evolution

濮蓉, 陶卓民, 李涛. “一带一路”沿线主要国家旅游竞争力与旅游服务出口协调度时空演变[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 948-956.

Rong PU, Zhuomin TAO, Tao LI. The spatio-temporal evolution of degree of coordination between tourism competitiveness and tourism service exports of major countries along the "Belt and Road"[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(5): 948-956.

图/表 6

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目标层	准则层	指标层	权重
目标层	准则层	指标层	2007	2011	2015
旅游竞争力	环境优势	商业环境	0.0417	0.0394	0.0218
		信息通信技术	0.1081	0.0934	0.0589
		健康和卫生	0.0904	0.0718	0.0240
		安全保障	0.0359	0.0288	0.0426
		人力资源	0.0155	0.0086	0.0135
	文化和自然资源	文化资源	0.1865	0.2079	0.3034
	文化和自然资源	自然资源	0.0718	0.0777	0.1324
	旅游观光政策	环境可持续性	0.0231	0.0238	0.0285
	旅游观光政策	旅游观光政策优先性	0.0489	0.0491	0.0294
	基础设施	航空运输基础设施	0.0851	0.1080	0.1485
		地面交通基础设施	0.0667	0.0724	0.0857
		旅游基础服务设施	0.2264	0.2193	0.1114
旅游服务出口		旅游服务出口额	0.4948	0.5212	0.5384
旅游服务出口		人均旅游服务出口额	0.5052	0.4788	0.4616

目标层	准则层	指标层	权重
目标层	准则层	指标层	2007	2011	2015
旅游竞争力	环境优势	商业环境	0.0417	0.0394	0.0218
		信息通信技术	0.1081	0.0934	0.0589
		健康和卫生	0.0904	0.0718	0.0240
		安全保障	0.0359	0.0288	0.0426
		人力资源	0.0155	0.0086	0.0135
	文化和自然资源	文化资源	0.1865	0.2079	0.3034
	文化和自然资源	自然资源	0.0718	0.0777	0.1324
	旅游观光政策	环境可持续性	0.0231	0.0238	0.0285
	旅游观光政策	旅游观光政策优先性	0.0489	0.0491	0.0294
	基础设施	航空运输基础设施	0.0851	0.1080	0.1485
		地面交通基础设施	0.0667	0.0724	0.0857
		旅游基础服务设施	0.2264	0.2193	0.1114
旅游服务出口		旅游服务出口额	0.4948	0.5212	0.5384
旅游服务出口		人均旅游服务出口额	0.5052	0.4788	0.4616

耦合协调度	相对发展度	耦合协调发展类型特征	耦合协调度等级
0≤R＜0.3	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	低水平耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化
0.3≤R＜0.5	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	中度耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化
0.5≤R≤0.8	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	高度耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化
0.8≤R＜1	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	极度耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化

耦合协调度	相对发展度	耦合协调发展类型特征	耦合协调度等级
0≤R＜0.3	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	低水平耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化
0.3≤R＜0.5	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	中度耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化
0.5≤R≤0.8	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	高度耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化
0.8≤R＜1	0＜S≤0.75	旅游服务出口滞后于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化	极度耦合协调
	0.75＜S≤1.25	旅游服务出口同步于旅游竞争力，系统趋于优化
	S＞1.25	旅游服务出口超前于旅游竞争力，系统趋于退化

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