中国水资源利用效率及其影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.03.2020565

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

科学地评价我国水资源利用效率的地区差异，对推进社会可持续发展具有重要意义。将水足迹作为投入指标纳入水资源利用效率的分析框架之中，提出Shephard水资源距离函数，并依据2009—2018年我国大陆30个省份（西藏除外）的面板数据，运用基于Shephard水资源距离函数的随机前沿分析模型对我国区域的水资源利用效率及其影响因素进行了实证分析。结果表明：（1）在研究期间，我国水足迹总量及其年增长率均有较大的波动，我国各省份的水足迹总量之间的差异较为明显；（2）东部、中部、西部的水资源利用效率存在显著差异，呈现出自东向西依次递减的区域分布特点；（3）经济发展水平与水资源利用效率呈正相关，水资源禀赋、城镇化进程和产业结构（第三产业比重）均与水资源利用效率呈负相关。研究结果有利于探寻促进我国水资源可持续利用和统筹协调发展的有效途径。

关键词: 水资源利用效率, 水足迹, 随机前沿方法, Shephard水资源距离函数

Abstract:

Scientific evaluation of the differences between China's water resource utilization efficiency is of great significance to the promotion of social sustainable development. Incorporating water footprint as an input indicator into the analysis framework of water resource utilization efficiency, a Shephard water resources distance function is proposed, and based on panel data of 30 provinces (excluding Tibet) in mainland China from 2009 to 2018, using the stochastic frontier analysis model based on the Shephard water resources distance function, an empirical analysis of the regional water resources utilization efficiency and its influencing factors in China. The results show: (1) During the study period, China's total water footprint and its annual growth rate fluctuated greatly, and the difference between the total water footprint of each province is obvious. (2) There are obvious differences in water use efficiency in the east, middle and west, showing the regional distribution characteristics of decreasing from east to west. (3) The level of economic development is positively correlated with water resource utilization efficiency, and water resource endowment, urbanization process and industrial structure (the proportion of the tertiary industry) are all negatively correlated with water resource utilization efficiency. The results of the research are conducive to exploring effective ways to promote the sustainable use of water resources in China and overall planning and coordinated development.

Key words: water resource utilization efficiency, water footprint, stochastic frontier analysis, Shephard water resources distance function

陈艳萍, 刘畅. 中国水资源利用效率及其影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 591-601.

Yanping CHEN, Chang LIU. Research on water resources utilization efficiency and its influencing factors in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(3): 591-601.

图/表 5

表1 全国水足迹总量和年增长率变化趋势（2009—2018）

Tab.1 The total national water footprint and annual growth rate trend (2009-2018)

参数	年份
参数	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
水足迹	5735.6	5842.0	5981.1	5965.5	6015.6	5872.1	5776.9	5769.5	5836.3	5863.4
增长率	4.63%	1.85%	2.38%	-0.26%	0.84%	-2.39%	-1.62%	-0.13%	1.16%	0.46%

图1 研究期间内各省份水足迹平均值分布图注：基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）1569号的地图制作，底图无修改，下图同。

Fig.1 Distribution map of the average value of water footprint in each province during the study period

表2 我国各区域水资源利用效率（2009—2018）

Tab.2 The utilization efficiency of water resources in various regions of my country (2009-2018)

地区		年份										均值
地区		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	均值
东部地区	北京	0.782	0.832	0.868	0.888	0.907	0.918	0.927	0.938	0.948	0.953	0.896
	天津	0.754	0.829	0.875	0.897	0.915	0.926	0.933	0.939	0.939	0.939	0.895
	河北	0.739	0.801	0.859	0.877	0.893	0.899	0.898	0.911	0.923	0.915	0.871
	辽宁	0.780	0.830	0.892	0.909	0.926	0.937	0.931	0.853	0.875	0.891	0.882
	上海	0.824	0.857	0.877	0.885	0.901	0.917	0.926	0.938	0.948	0.953	0.903
	江苏	0.916	0.944	0.962	0.970	0.976	0.980	0.983	0.985	0.989	0.990	0.970
	浙江	0.854	0.889	0.928	0.932	0.948	0.954	0.958	0.967	0.973	0.977	0.938
	福建	0.670	0.691	0.838	0.844	0.888	0.909	0.921	0.923	0.953	0.964	0.860
	山东	0.905	0.928	0.948	0.957	0.965	0.970	0.973	0.976	0.979	0.981	0.958
	广东	0.897	0.925	0.950	0.956	0.964	0.971	0.975	0.979	0.984	0.987	0.959
	海南	0.546	0.563	0.580	0.596	0.612	0.627	0.641	0.655	0.668	0.681	0.617
	均值	0.828	0.871	0.911	0.924	0.938	0.948	0.952	0.957	0.965	0.970	0.926
中部地区	山西	0.520	0.635	0.722	0.749	0.760	0.757	0.734	0.727	0.783	0.808	0.719
	吉林	0.538	0.610	0.760	0.792	0.798	0.845	0.839	0.845	0.841	0.848	0.772
	黑龙江	0.449	0.583	0.708	0.727	0.696	0.748	0.745	0.741	0.762	0.723	0.688
	安徽	0.568	0.641	0.641	0.769	0.803	0.815	0.814	0.825	0.870	0.892	0.764
	江西	0.438	0.409	0.652	0.582	0.703	0.721	0.714	0.733	0.802	0.853	0.661
	河南	0.761	0.809	0.856	0.874	0.887	0.899	0.902	0.913	0.929	0.941	0.877
	湖北	0.648	0.704	0.812	0.848	0.873	0.893	0.905	0.916	0.933	0.951	0.848
	湖南	0.592	0.653	0.776	0.780	0.826	0.845	0.854	0.866	0.895	0.917	0.800
	均值	0.599	0.662	0.763	0.790	0.815	0.838	0.839	0.848	0.879	0.898	0.793
西部地区	内蒙古	0.734	0.822	0.869	0.893	0.889	0.915	0.912	0.920	0.888	0.890	0.873
	广西	0.431	0.502	0.636	0.613	0.668	0.695	0.689	0.742	0.716	0.787	0.648
	重庆	0.375	0.500	0.629	0.705	0.761	0.795	0.847	0.867	0.888	0.900	0.727
	四川	0.565	0.632	0.735	0.756	0.803	0.821	0.840	0.858	0.887	0.908	0.780
	贵州	0.127	0.112	0.304	0.350	0.497	0.514	0.590	0.669	0.734	0.777	0.468
	云南	0.331	0.384	0.526	0.542	0.634	0.612	0.643	0.682	0.724	0.770	0.585
	陕西	0.518	0.659	0.745	0.812	0.849	0.873	0.860	0.881	0.904	0.924	0.802
	甘肃	0.272	0.358	0.436	0.480	0.526	0.577	0.552	0.569	0.546	0.573	0.489
	青海	0.157	0.352	0.465	0.544	0.600	0.646	0.671	0.680	0.630	0.689	0.543
	宁夏	0.166	0.226	0.401	0.484	0.562	0.621	0.653	0.690	0.661	0.677	0.514
	新疆	0.313	0.346	0.506	0.599	0.664	0.735	0.657	0.649	0.727	0.791	0.599
	西部	0.428	0.526	0.642	0.688	0.734	0.766	0.775	0.799	0.814	0.842	0.701
全国		0.576	0.639	0.729	0.758	0.793	0.815	0.820	0.831	0.847	0.865	0.767

表2 我国各区域水资源利用效率（2009—2018）

Tab.2 The utilization efficiency of water resources in various regions of my country (2009-2018)

地区		年份										均值
地区		2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	均值
东部地区	北京	0.782	0.832	0.868	0.888	0.907	0.918	0.927	0.938	0.948	0.953	0.896
	天津	0.754	0.829	0.875	0.897	0.915	0.926	0.933	0.939	0.939	0.939	0.895
	河北	0.739	0.801	0.859	0.877	0.893	0.899	0.898	0.911	0.923	0.915	0.871
	辽宁	0.780	0.830	0.892	0.909	0.926	0.937	0.931	0.853	0.875	0.891	0.882
	上海	0.824	0.857	0.877	0.885	0.901	0.917	0.926	0.938	0.948	0.953	0.903
	江苏	0.916	0.944	0.962	0.970	0.976	0.980	0.983	0.985	0.989	0.990	0.970
	浙江	0.854	0.889	0.928	0.932	0.948	0.954	0.958	0.967	0.973	0.977	0.938
	福建	0.670	0.691	0.838	0.844	0.888	0.909	0.921	0.923	0.953	0.964	0.860
	山东	0.905	0.928	0.948	0.957	0.965	0.970	0.973	0.976	0.979	0.981	0.958
	广东	0.897	0.925	0.950	0.956	0.964	0.971	0.975	0.979	0.984	0.987	0.959
	海南	0.546	0.563	0.580	0.596	0.612	0.627	0.641	0.655	0.668	0.681	0.617
	均值	0.828	0.871	0.911	0.924	0.938	0.948	0.952	0.957	0.965	0.970	0.926
中部地区	山西	0.520	0.635	0.722	0.749	0.760	0.757	0.734	0.727	0.783	0.808	0.719
	吉林	0.538	0.610	0.760	0.792	0.798	0.845	0.839	0.845	0.841	0.848	0.772
	黑龙江	0.449	0.583	0.708	0.727	0.696	0.748	0.745	0.741	0.762	0.723	0.688
	安徽	0.568	0.641	0.641	0.769	0.803	0.815	0.814	0.825	0.870	0.892	0.764
	江西	0.438	0.409	0.652	0.582	0.703	0.721	0.714	0.733	0.802	0.853	0.661
	河南	0.761	0.809	0.856	0.874	0.887	0.899	0.902	0.913	0.929	0.941	0.877
	湖北	0.648	0.704	0.812	0.848	0.873	0.893	0.905	0.916	0.933	0.951	0.848
	湖南	0.592	0.653	0.776	0.780	0.826	0.845	0.854	0.866	0.895	0.917	0.800
	均值	0.599	0.662	0.763	0.790	0.815	0.838	0.839	0.848	0.879	0.898	0.793
西部地区	内蒙古	0.734	0.822	0.869	0.893	0.889	0.915	0.912	0.920	0.888	0.890	0.873
	广西	0.431	0.502	0.636	0.613	0.668	0.695	0.689	0.742	0.716	0.787	0.648
	重庆	0.375	0.500	0.629	0.705	0.761	0.795	0.847	0.867	0.888	0.900	0.727
	四川	0.565	0.632	0.735	0.756	0.803	0.821	0.840	0.858	0.887	0.908	0.780
	贵州	0.127	0.112	0.304	0.350	0.497	0.514	0.590	0.669	0.734	0.777	0.468
	云南	0.331	0.384	0.526	0.542	0.634	0.612	0.643	0.682	0.724	0.770	0.585
	陕西	0.518	0.659	0.745	0.812	0.849	0.873	0.860	0.881	0.904	0.924	0.802
	甘肃	0.272	0.358	0.436	0.480	0.526	0.577	0.552	0.569	0.546	0.573	0.489
	青海	0.157	0.352	0.465	0.544	0.600	0.646	0.671	0.680	0.630	0.689	0.543
	宁夏	0.166	0.226	0.401	0.484	0.562	0.621	0.653	0.690	0.661	0.677	0.514
	新疆	0.313	0.346	0.506	0.599	0.664	0.735	0.657	0.649	0.727	0.791	0.599
	西部	0.428	0.526	0.642	0.688	0.734	0.766	0.775	0.799	0.814	0.842	0.701
全国		0.576	0.639	0.729	0.758	0.793	0.815	0.820	0.831	0.847	0.865	0.767

图2 水资源利用效率分布图

Fig.2 Water resources utilization efficiency distribution map

表3 非效率函数估计结果

Tab.3 Inefficiency function estimation result

变量	参数	系数	显著水平	t-ratio
常数项	$α 0$	7.537	1%	3.462
EL	$α 1$	-0.637	1%	-9.1
WRE	$α 2$	2.215	1%	2.1
UP	$α 3$	204.983	1%	3.886
IS	$α 4$	189.239	1%	3.905
σ²	—	49.784	1%	28.315
γ	—	0.418	1%	8.183
对数似然函数	—	-3466.4	—	—
似然比LR	—	57.97	1%	—

表3 非效率函数估计结果

Tab.3 Inefficiency function estimation result

变量	参数	系数	显著水平	t-ratio
常数项	$α 0$	7.537	1%	3.462
EL	$α 1$	-0.637	1%	-9.1
WRE	$α 2$	2.215	1%	2.1
UP	$α 3$	204.983	1%	3.886
IS	$α 4$	189.239	1%	3.905
σ²	—	49.784	1%	28.315
γ	—	0.418	1%	8.183
对数似然函数	—	-3466.4	—	—
似然比LR	—	57.97	1%	—

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