城市经济复杂度与空气质量的关联性探究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.07.2021176

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，经济复杂度作为衡量地区经济发展水平的新指标愈发受到学者关注，其中该指标与环境质量的关系是重点讨论话题之一。然而，现有研究主要基于发达国家经验，对其关系机制和在发展中国家、转型经济体适用性的关注仍存在不足。利用2005—2016年中国海关数据库与国家生态环境部网站等数据，描述中国地级市经济复杂度与空气质量的格局演化，构建计量模型探究中国城市经济复杂度与空气质量的关联性，并分析经济复杂度环境效应的潜在机制。结果表明：①经济复杂度与空气质量呈正向关联，城市经济复杂度越高则空气质量越好；②绿色技术对地方空气质量改善存在积极作用，且经济复杂度可以增强绿色技术的改善效应；③产业污染结构是造成空气污染的重要原因之一，但经济复杂度的提升能一定程度上抵消污染产业对空气质量的负面影响；④各因素对空气质量的作用存在明显的区域异质性，不同地区的环境治理手段应有不同侧重。

关键词: 经济复杂度, 空气质量, 绿色技术, 产业污染结构, 绿色发展

Abstract:

Economic complexity, as a new indicator to measure the quality of regional economic development, has attracted more and more attention in recent years. The relationship between economic complexity and environmental quality is one of the key topics to discuss. However, those studies were mainly based on the experience of developed countries, with insufficient attention to inside mechanisms and applicability in developing countries. Therefore, this paper utilized data from the China Customs Database and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2005 and 2016 to describe the evolution of economic complexity and air quality in Chinese cities, and constructed an econometric model to explore their relationship as well as potential mechanism. The results show that: ①Economic complexity is positively related to air quality, suggesting that higher economic complexity leads to better air quality; ②Green technology has a positive effect on local air quality, and economic complexity can enhance this green technological effect; ③Industrial pollution structure is a key factor causing air pollution, but an increase of economic complexity can offset the negative impact from polluting industry to a certain extent; ④The environmental effects of different factors have obvious regional heterogeneity, suggesting that environmental governance measures in different regions should focus on different aspects.

Key words: economic complexity, air quality, green technology, industrial pollution structure, green development

汤慧桢, 任卓然, 贺灿飞. 城市经济复杂度与空气质量的关联性探究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(7): 88-101.

Huizhen TANG, Zhuoran REN, Canfei HE. Exploration on the correlation of economic complexity and air quality[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(7): 88-101.

图/表 9

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对应中国行业类别	SITC1代码
金属矿床开采	281、283
初级有色金属	681、682、683、684、685、686、687、689
纸浆与纸	251、641、642
初级钢铁	671、672、673、674、675、676、678
化学制品	512、513、514、581

对应中国行业类别	SITC1代码
金属矿床开采	281、283
初级有色金属	681、682、683、684、685、686、687、689
纸浆与纸	251、641、642
初级钢铁	671、672、673、674、675、676、678
化学制品	512、513、514、581

变量	主效应			非线性	调节效应
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6
ECI⁺	－0.47^***	－0.54^***	－0.59^***	－1.23^***	－0.75^***	－0.59^***
	(－3.30)	(－3.59)	(－3.90)	(－5.81)	(－4.22)	(－3.89)
ECI⁺ 2				－0.02^***
				(－4.29)
lnPolluper		1.05^***	1.14^***	1.16^***	1.10^***	1.04^***
		(－2.92)	(－3.16)	(－3.24)	(－3.06)	(－2.77)
lnGreentec			－2.00^***	－2.67^***	－2.26^***	－2.02^***
			(－2.77)	(－3.63)	(－3.06)	(－2.79)
ECI⁺_Greentec					－0.09^*
					(－1.72)
ECI⁺_Polluper						－0.041
						(－0.87)
lnGDP	－9.33^***	－9.30^***	－6.05^**	－7.15^**	－6.19^**	－6.08^**
	(－3.68)	(－3.65)	(－2.16)	(－2.56)	(－2.21)	(－2.17)
lnAsset	3.01^**	3.21^**	3.48^**	3.59^**	3.58^**	3.51^**
	(－2.03)	(－2.14)	(－2.33)	(－2.42)	(－2.39)	(－2.35)
lnRegu	－0.94^**	－1.04^**	－0.88^**	－0.97^**	－0.93^**	－0.86^*
	(－2.15)	(－2.35)	(－1.97)	(－2.19)	(－2.07)	(－1.93)
lnRain	－0.13	－0.15	－0.14	－0.12	－0.14	－0.14
	(－0.59)	(－0.67)	(－0.64)	(－0.56)	(－0.61)	(－0.62)
lnTempr	0.32	0.32	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.39
	(－0.59)	(－0.58)	(－0.71)	(－0.72)	(－0.70)	(－0.70)
lnHumidity	－0.45	－0.48	－0.51	－0.51	－0.50	－0.50
	(－0.71)	(－0.77)	(－0.81)	(－0.82)	(－0.81)	(－0.81)
Constant	141.97^***	138.35^***	108.04^***	124.50^***	110.60^***	107.96^***
	(－12.74)	(－12.05)	(－6.82)	(－7.69)	(－6.96)	(－6.81)
Observations	1 399	1 383	1 383	1 383	1 383	1 383
Number of id	285	283	283	283	283	283
固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES

变量	主效应			非线性	调节效应
变量	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6
ECI⁺	－0.47^***	－0.54^***	－0.59^***	－1.23^***	－0.75^***	－0.59^***
	(－3.30)	(－3.59)	(－3.90)	(－5.81)	(－4.22)	(－3.89)
ECI⁺ 2				－0.02^***
				(－4.29)
lnPolluper		1.05^***	1.14^***	1.16^***	1.10^***	1.04^***
		(－2.92)	(－3.16)	(－3.24)	(－3.06)	(－2.77)
lnGreentec			－2.00^***	－2.67^***	－2.26^***	－2.02^***
			(－2.77)	(－3.63)	(－3.06)	(－2.79)
ECI⁺_Greentec					－0.09^*
					(－1.72)
ECI⁺_Polluper						－0.041
						(－0.87)
lnGDP	－9.33^***	－9.30^***	－6.05^**	－7.15^**	－6.19^**	－6.08^**
	(－3.68)	(－3.65)	(－2.16)	(－2.56)	(－2.21)	(－2.17)
lnAsset	3.01^**	3.21^**	3.48^**	3.59^**	3.58^**	3.51^**
	(－2.03)	(－2.14)	(－2.33)	(－2.42)	(－2.39)	(－2.35)
lnRegu	－0.94^**	－1.04^**	－0.88^**	－0.97^**	－0.93^**	－0.86^*
	(－2.15)	(－2.35)	(－1.97)	(－2.19)	(－2.07)	(－1.93)
lnRain	－0.13	－0.15	－0.14	－0.12	－0.14	－0.14
	(－0.59)	(－0.67)	(－0.64)	(－0.56)	(－0.61)	(－0.62)
lnTempr	0.32	0.32	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.39
	(－0.59)	(－0.58)	(－0.71)	(－0.72)	(－0.70)	(－0.70)
lnHumidity	－0.45	－0.48	－0.51	－0.51	－0.50	－0.50
	(－0.71)	(－0.77)	(－0.81)	(－0.82)	(－0.81)	(－0.81)
Constant	141.97^***	138.35^***	108.04^***	124.50^***	110.60^***	107.96^***
	(－12.74)	(－12.05)	(－6.82)	(－7.69)	(－6.96)	(－6.81)
Observations	1 399	1 383	1 383	1 383	1 383	1 383
Number of id	285	283	283	283	283	283
固定效应	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES

百分位	断裂点
1%	－33.48
5%	－4.51
50%	3.45
95%	9.68
99%	12.88