中国资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”耦合协调分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.01.2021760

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推动资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”协调发展是实现区域高质量发展的难点与挑战。本文构建人口、土地、产业发展水平评价指标体系，采用耦合协调模型对中国26个资源型收缩城市2008、2013与2018年“人口-土地-产业”协调发展状况进行分析。结果表明：（1）资源型收缩城市产业系统发展水平较高，土地系统发展处于中间水平，人口系统发展水平较低。各城市“人口-土地-产业”协调度均处于濒临失调和轻度失调等级，但多数城市具有上升趋势。（2）不同类型资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”发展水平和协调度存在明显差异；从发展阶段来看，成熟型城市3大系统发展水平最高，而衰退型城市最低，2008和2013年协调度均值的排序为成长型>成熟型>再生型>衰退型，2018年为成长型>再生型>成熟型>衰退型；从主导产业来看，油气类城市3大系统发展水平最高，而煤炭类城市最低，协调度均值的排序在3个年份中均为油气类>黑色金属类>非金属类>森工类>煤炭类。（3）资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”的协调发展模式以人口滞后型与土地滞后型为主。

关键词: 资源型收缩城市, 人口-土地-产业, 耦合协调度, 协调发展模式

Abstract:

Promoting the coordinated development of "population-land-industry" in resource-based shrinking cities is the difficulty and challenge to realize regional high-quality development. This research constructed the evaluation index system of population, land and industrial development level, and used the coupling coordination model to analyze the "population-land-industry" coordinated development of 26 resource-based Shrinking Cities in China in 2008, 2013 and 2018. The results show that: (1) The development level of industrial system in resource-based cities is high, the development of land system is at the middle level, and the development of population system is low. The coordination degree of "population-land-industry" in each city is at the level of near imbalance and slight imbalance, but most cities have an upward trend; (2) There are obvious differences in the development level and coordination degree of population, land, and industry of different types of resource-based shrinking cities. From the development stage, the development level of grown-up cities is the highest, while that of recessionary cities is the lowest. In 2008 and 2013, the average coordination degree ranked as growing city > grown-up city > regenerative city > recessionary city, and in 2018, it is growing city> regenerative city > grown-up city > recessionary city. From the perspective of leading industries, the development level of oil&gas-based cities is the highest, while that of coal-based cities is the lowest. In the three years, the order of the average coordination degree is oil&gas-based city > nonmetal-based city > ferrous metal-based city > forestry-based city > coal-based cities. (3) The coordinated development model of "population-land-industry" in resource-based shrinking cities is dominated by population lag and land lag.

Key words: resource-based shrinking city, population-land-industry, coupling degree, coordinated development mode

张浩哲, 杨庆媛. 中国资源型收缩城市“人口-土地-产业”耦合协调分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(1): 163-177.

Haozhe ZHANG, Qingyuan YANG. Characteristics of "population-land-industry" coordinated development of resource-based shrinking cities in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(1): 163-177.

图/表 13

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系统	评价目标	指标/单位	属性	系统	评价目标	指标/单位	属性
人口	人口数量	城镇人口密度 /万人	+	土地	土地增量	城市建设用地增长率/%	－
	人口数量	城镇常住人口流失率 /%	－		产出水平	地均二、三产业产值/ （万元/km²）	+
	人口结构	每万人中大学生数 /（人/万人）	+			地均财政收入/ （万元/km²）	+
		老年人口占比/%	－			人均城市绿地面积/（m²/人）	+
		采掘业从业人员占比/%	－	产业	产业产出	二、三产业总产值/万元	+
	人口生活	城镇登记失业率/%	－		产业结构	产业合理化水平	+
		职工平均工资/（万元/人）	+			产业高级化水平/%	+
		每万人专任教师数/（人/万人）	+			资源型产业产值占GDP的比重/%	+
		每万人医疗卫生床位数/（张/万人）	+			高新技术产业产值占GDP比重/%	+
		每万人图书馆藏书/（册/人）	+		产业创新性	R&D经费支出占GDP比重/%	+
		城镇居民人均住房面积 /（m²/人）	+		产业创新性	每万人专利授予数/ （件/万人）	+
		城乡居民基本养老保险参保率/%	+		产业外向性	外商直接投资占GDP的比重/%	+
土地	土地存量	城市建设用地占市辖区面积比重/%	+		产业发展可持续性	单位工业增加值耗电量/（万kW·h/万元）	－
	土地存量	工业用地占城市建设用地比重/%	－			单位工业增加值废水排放量/（t/万元）	－
	投入水平	地均固定资产投资额/（万人/km²）	+			单位工业增加值SO₂排放量/（t/万元）	－
	投入水平	地均二、三产业从业人员 /（万人/km²）	+			工业固体废物利用率/%	+

系统	评价目标	指标/单位	属性	系统	评价目标	指标/单位	属性
人口	人口数量	城镇人口密度 /万人	+	土地	土地增量	城市建设用地增长率/%	－
	人口数量	城镇常住人口流失率 /%	－		产出水平	地均二、三产业产值/ （万元/km²）	+
	人口结构	每万人中大学生数 /（人/万人）	+			地均财政收入/ （万元/km²）	+
		老年人口占比/%	－			人均城市绿地面积/（m²/人）	+
		采掘业从业人员占比/%	－	产业	产业产出	二、三产业总产值/万元	+
	人口生活	城镇登记失业率/%	－		产业结构	产业合理化水平	+
		职工平均工资/（万元/人）	+			产业高级化水平/%	+
		每万人专任教师数/（人/万人）	+			资源型产业产值占GDP的比重/%	+
		每万人医疗卫生床位数/（张/万人）	+			高新技术产业产值占GDP比重/%	+
		每万人图书馆藏书/（册/人）	+		产业创新性	R&D经费支出占GDP比重/%	+
		城镇居民人均住房面积 /（m²/人）	+		产业创新性	每万人专利授予数/ （件/万人）	+
		城乡居民基本养老保险参保率/%	+		产业外向性	外商直接投资占GDP的比重/%	+
土地	土地存量	城市建设用地占市辖区面积比重/%	+		产业发展可持续性	单位工业增加值耗电量/（万kW·h/万元）	－
	土地存量	工业用地占城市建设用地比重/%	－			单位工业增加值废水排放量/（t/万元）	－
	投入水平	地均固定资产投资额/（万人/km²）	+			单位工业增加值SO₂排放量/（t/万元）	－
	投入水平	地均二、三产业从业人员 /（万人/km²）	+			工业固体废物利用率/%	+

协调度	协调等级	协调度	协调等级
(0.90, 1.00]	优质协调	(0.40, 0.50]	濒临失调
(0.80, 0.90]	良好协调	(0.30, 0.40]	轻度失调
(0.70, 0.80]	中级协调	(0.20, 0.30]	中度失调
(0.60, 0.70]	初级协调	(0.10, 0.20]	严重失调
(0.50, 0.60]	勉强协调	[0, 0.10]	极度失调

协调度	协调等级	协调度	协调等级
(0.90, 1.00]	优质协调	(0.40, 0.50]	濒临失调
(0.80, 0.90]	良好协调	(0.30, 0.40]	轻度失调
(0.70, 0.80]	中级协调	(0.20, 0.30]	中度失调
(0.60, 0.70]	初级协调	(0.10, 0.20]	严重失调
(0.50, 0.60]	勉强协调	[0, 0.10]	极度失调

统计量	年份	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准误	离散系数
人口指数	2008	0.667	0.238	0.438	0.022	0.258
	2013	0.668	0.206	0.421	0.023	0.277
	2018	0.686	0.281	0.454	0.030	0.335
土地指数	2008	0.679	0.267	0.468	0.017	0.183
	2013	0.721	0.255	0.498	0.024	0.246
	2018	0.689	0.287	0.464	0.023	0.248
产业指数	2008	0.850	0.382	0.470	0.018	0.198
	2013	0.760	0.323	0.503	0.017	0.175
	2018	0.679	0.366	0.514	0.016	0.155
综合指数	2008	0.624	0.294	0.420	0.013	0.162
	2013	0.587	0.296	0.421	0.014	0.166
	2018	0.582	0.308	0.437	0.015	0.178