环维多利亚湖国家人口城市化与基础设施耦合协调关系研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.05.2021510

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用熵值法构建城市人口与基础设施评价指标体系，运用耦合协调模型和障碍度模型，基于2008—2017年统计数据，对环维多利亚湖三个国家坦桑尼亚、乌干达和肯尼亚人口城市化与基础设施耦合协调度及障碍度进行研究。结果表明：环湖国家城市化和基础设施发展水平大多呈递增趋势，乌干达基础设施水平波动下降，但变幅不大。三个国家人口城市化发展综合指数在多数时间内要高于基础设施发展综合指数，二者的耦合协调度由濒临失调向中级耦合协调转变，但两大系统的匹配程度仍较低。综合三个国家的指标障碍度排序为X₉>X₂>（X₁₀/X₆/X₇）>（X₄/X₃）>（X₈/X₁/X₁₁）>X₅，医疗水平是制约三个国家城市化与基础设施协调发展的最大障碍因素。研究结果有助于认识非洲国家城市基础设施供给水平与人口匹配现状，为城市化发展相关政策制定提供参考。

关键词: 人口城市化, 基础设施, 耦合协调度, 障碍度, 发展中国家

Abstract:

Based on the statistical data from 2008 to 2017, this paper uses the coupling coordination model and obstacle model to study the coupling coordination degree and obstacle degree of urbanization and infrastructure in Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya around Lake Victoria. The results show that the urbanization and infrastructure development levels of the countries around the lake are increasing as a whole, and the infrastructure level of Uganda fluctuates downward, but the change is small. Over a long time, the comprehensive index of urbanization development of the three countries is higher than that of infrastructure development. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems has improved in varying degrees, from on the verge of imbalance to intermediate coupling coordination, but the matching degree of the two systems is still low. The order of obstacle degree of the three countries is as follows: X₉>X₂>（X₁₀/X₆/X₇）>（X₄/X₃）>（X₈/X₁/X₁₁）>X₅. The level of medical care is the biggest obstacle to the sustainable and coordinated development of urbanization in three countries. The results are helpful to understand the current situation of urban infrastructure supply and population matching in African countries, and it provides scientific data for policy-making related to urbanization development.

Key words: urbanization, infrastructure, coupling coordination degree, obstacle degree, developing country

祁明星, 陈爽. 环维多利亚湖国家人口城市化与基础设施耦合协调关系研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(5): 34-45.

Mingxing QI, Shuang CHEN. Coupling and coordinating relationships between urbanization and infrastructure in the countries around Lake Victoria, Africa[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(5): 34-45.

图/表 9

参考文献 31

1	OLOKOTUM M, MITROI V, TROUSSELLIER M,et al. A review of the socioecological causes and consequences of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Victoria. Harmful Algae,2020,96:101829.
2	Nations United. World urbanization prospects: The 2014 revision, highlights. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,2014.
3	TOMAL M. Evaluation of coupling coordination degree and convergence behaviour of local development: A spatiotemporal analysis of all Polish municipalities over the period 2003-2019. Sustainable Cities and Society, 2021,71(4):102992.
4	CHEN J, LI Z, DONG Y, et al. Coupling coordination between carbon emissions and the eco-environment in China. Journal of Cleaner Production,2020,276:123848.
5	SUN Q, ZHANG X, ZHANG H, et al. Coordinated development of a coupled social economy and resource environment system:A case study in Henan Province,China. Environment,Development Sustainability, 2018,20(3):1385-1404.
6	JI J, WANG S, ZHOU Y, et al. Spatiotemporal change and coordinated development analysis of "population-society-economy-resource-ecology-environment" in the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2015. Sustainability,2021,13(7):4075.
7	CHAKRABORTY C, NANDI B. 'Mainline' telecommunications infrastructure, levels of development and economic growth:Evidence from a panel of developing countries. Telecommunications Policy, 2011,35(5): 441-449.
8	PRADHAN R, ARIVIN M, NAIR M. Urbanization, transportation infrastructure, ICT, and economic growth: A temporal causal analysis. Cities,2021,115(5):103213.
9	DAVID O. Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in Africa: Panel vector autoregression (P-VAR) analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 2019,43(8):101816.
10	MAPARU T, MAZUMDER T. Investigating causality between transport infrastructure and urbanization: A state-level study of India (1991-2011). Transport Policy,2021,113:46-55.
11	KHAN H, KHAN U, LI J, et al. Impact of infrastructure on economic growth in South Asia: Evidence from pooled mean group estimation. The Electricity Journal,2020,33(5):106735.
12	MADLENER R, SUNAK Y. Impacts of urbanization on urbanstructures and energy demand:What can we learn for urban energy planning and urbanization management? Sustainable Cities and Society, 2011(1):45-53.
13	KUMARI A, SHARMA A. Physical & social infrastructure in India & its relationship with economic development. World Development Perspectives,2017(5):30-33.
14	张明斗,莫冬燕.城市土地利用效益与城市化的耦合协调性分析——以东北三省34个地级市为例.资源科学,2014(1):8-16.
	ZHANG M, MO D. Analysis of coupling coordination between urban land use efficiency and urbanization: A case study of 34 prefecture level cities in Northeast China. Resources Science, 2014(1): 8-16.
15	吴玉鸣,柏玲.广西城市化与环境系统的耦合协调测度与互动分析.地理科学,2011,31(12):1474-1479.
	WU Y, BAI L.Coupling coordination measurement and interaction analysis of urbanization and environmental system in Guangxi. Geographic Science, 2011,31(12): 1474-1479.
16	焦士兴,王安周,李青云,等.河南省城镇化与水资源耦合协调发展状况.水资源保护,2020,36(2):21-26.
	JIAO S, WANG A, LI Q,et al. Coupling and coordinated development of urbanization and water resources in Henan Province. Water Resources Protection,2020,36(2): 21-26.
17	蒋时节,刘贵文,李世蓉.基础设施投资与城市化之间的相关性分析.城市发展研究,2005(2):72-74.
	JIANG J, LIU G, LI S.Correlation analysis between infrastructure investment and urbanization.Urban Development Research, 2005(2): 72-74.
18	李森圣,张宗益.人口城镇化与基础设施建设协调性检验——空间效率异质性视角.山西财经大学学报,2015,37(3):60-69.
	LI S, ZHANG Z. Coordination test of population urbanization and infrastructure construction from the perspective of spatial efficiency heterogeneity. Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, 2015,37(3): 60-69.
19	李冰.科技支撑力的区域差异与赋能提升策略:基于2010—2016年面板数据的熵权法分析.嘉应学院学报,2019,37(1):59-64.
	LI B. The regional differences of science and technology support force and the strategy of enabling and improving:Based on the entropy weight method of 2010-2016 panel data. Journal of Jiaying University, 2019,37(1): 59-64.
20	ARIKEN M, ZHANG F, CHAN N,et al.Coupling coordination analysis and spatio-temporal heterogeneity between urbanization and eco-environment along the Silk Road Economic Belt in China.Ecological Indicators, 2021,121:107014.
21	王靖,张金锁.综合评价中确定权重向量的几种方法比较.河北工业大学学报,2001(2):52-57.
	WANG J, ZHANG J. Comparison of several methods for determining weight vector in comprehensive evaluation. Journal of Hebei University of Technology, 2001(2): 52-57.
22	尹向来,黄彩虹.基础设施与城市化水平耦合协调关系演变.世界地理研究,2018,27(6):77-87.
	YIN X, HUANG C. Evolution of coupling coordination relationship between infrastructure and urbanization level. World Geographic Research, 2018,27(6):77-87.
23	LV T, LI W, ZHANG X, et al. Coupling coordinated development and exploring its influencing factors in Nanchang,China: From the perspectives of land urbanization and population urbanization. Land,2019,8 (12):178.
24	袁晓玲,张跃胜.中国基础设施与城市化发展水平耦合度分析.城市问题,2015(3):18-24.
	YUAN X, ZHANG Y. Analysis on coupling degree of infrastructure and urbanization development level in China.Urban Issues,2015(3):18-24.
25	廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系.热带地理,1999,19(2):171-177.
	LIAO C. Quantitative evaluation and classification system of coordinated development of environment and economy. Tropical Geography,1999,19(2):171-177.
26	曹琳剑,王杰.京津冀城市化与基础设施建设耦合演进分析——基于适宜性理论.建筑经济,2018,39(9): 98-104.
	CAO L, WANG J. Analysis on the coupling evolution of urbanization and infrastructure construction in Beijing Tianjin Hebei based on suitability theory. Construction Economy, 2018,39 (9):98-104.
27	廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例.热带地理,1999 (2):76-82.
	LIAO C. Quantitative evaluation and classification system of coordinated development of environment and economy: A case study of urban agglomeration in Pearl River Delta. Tropical Geography, 1999 (2):76-82.
28	王利军.基于耦合模型的基础设施与城市化协调发展研究——以兰州市为例.赤峰学院学报,2017,33(23):55-56.
	WANG L. Research on coordinated development of infrastructure and urbanization based on Coupling Model:A case study of Lanzhou. Journal of Chifeng University,2017,33(23):55-56.
29	庞冬,何秉宇.乌鲁木齐市人口-经济-环境耦合协调发展及障碍度分析.湖北农业科学,2018,57(9):116-120.
	PANG D, HE B. Analysis on coordinated development and obstacle degree of population economy environment coupling in Urumqi. Hubei Agricultural Sciences,2018,57(9):116-120.
30	甘静,郭付友,佟连军,等.吉林省松花江流域产业系统与环境系统时空耦合特征.世界地理研究,2017,26(2):101-109.
	GAN J, GUO F, TONG L,et al. Spatiotemporal coupling characteristics of industrial system and environmental system in Songhua River Basin of Jilin Province. World Geographic Research, 2017,26(2): 101-109.
31	MARTEN M, SULLIVAN N. Hospital side hustles: Funding conundrums and perverse incentives in Tanzania's publicly-funded health sector. Social Science & Medicine,2020,244:112622.

国别	系统层	要素层	指标层	各国的权重
国别	系统层	要素层	指标层	坦桑尼亚	乌干达	肯尼亚
坦桑尼亚	城市化	人口城市化	X_t1城市人口比重/%	0.537 9	0.552 2	0.568 4
	城市化	人口城市化	X_t2城市人口增长率/%	0.462 1	0.447 8	0.431 6
	基础设施	通信	X_t3宽带普及率/%	0.272 2	0.149 7	0.122 5
		交通	X_t4道路网里程/km	0.198 5	0.102 8	0.343 4
		能源	X_t5用电普及率/%	0.097 5	0.093 3	0.069 2
		环境	X_t6基本卫生设施普及率/%	0.073 0	0.118 3	0.072 9
			X_t7使用公厕人数占比/%	0.071 1	0.119 2	0.077 6
			X_t8城市中露天排便人数占比/%	0.073 6	0.112 0	0.077 0
		医疗	X_t9外科专业人员/人	0.089 0	0.086 7	0.071 7
		水利	X_t10安全饮用水普及率/%	0.046 2	0.116 5	0.077 3
		教育	X_t11小学数量/所	0.078 9	0.101 4	0.088 3

国别	系统层	要素层	指标层	各国的权重
国别	系统层	要素层	指标层	坦桑尼亚	乌干达	肯尼亚
坦桑尼亚	城市化	人口城市化	X_t1城市人口比重/%	0.537 9	0.552 2	0.568 4
	城市化	人口城市化	X_t2城市人口增长率/%	0.462 1	0.447 8	0.431 6
	基础设施	通信	X_t3宽带普及率/%	0.272 2	0.149 7	0.122 5
		交通	X_t4道路网里程/km	0.198 5	0.102 8	0.343 4
		能源	X_t5用电普及率/%	0.097 5	0.093 3	0.069 2
		环境	X_t6基本卫生设施普及率/%	0.073 0	0.118 3	0.072 9
			X_t7使用公厕人数占比/%	0.071 1	0.119 2	0.077 6
			X_t8城市中露天排便人数占比/%	0.073 6	0.112 0	0.077 0
		医疗	X_t9外科专业人员/人	0.089 0	0.086 7	0.071 7
		水利	X_t10安全饮用水普及率/%	0.046 2	0.116 5	0.077 3
		教育	X_t11小学数量/所	0.078 9	0.101 4	0.088 3

耦合协调区间	耦合协调等级	耦合协调度区间	耦合协调等级
0.000 0~0.100 0	极度失调衰退	0.500 1~0.600 0	勉强耦合协调
0.100 1~0.200 0	严重失调衰退	0.600 1~0.700 0	初级耦合协调
0.200 1~0.300 0	中度失调衰退	0.700 1~0.800 0	中级耦合协调
0.300 1~0.400 0	轻度失调衰退	0.800 1~0.900 0	良好耦合协调
0.400 1~0.500 0	濒临失调衰退	0.900 1~1.000 0	优质耦合协调

耦合协调区间	耦合协调等级	耦合协调度区间	耦合协调等级
0.000 0~0.100 0	极度失调衰退	0.500 1~0.600 0	勉强耦合协调
0.100 1~0.200 0	严重失调衰退	0.600 1~0.700 0	初级耦合协调
0.200 1~0.300 0	中度失调衰退	0.700 1~0.800 0	中级耦合协调
0.300 1~0.400 0	轻度失调衰退	0.800 1~0.900 0	良好耦合协调
0.400 1~0.500 0	濒临失调衰退	0.900 1~1.000 0	优质耦合协调

时间	人口城市化G(y)			基础设施建设F(x)
时间	坦桑尼亚	乌干达	肯尼亚	坦桑尼亚	乌干达	肯尼亚
2008	0.462 1	0.447 8	0.431 6	0.096 8	0.573 6	0.354 9
2009	0.484 7	0.478 3	0.439 3	0.196 8	0.510 3	0.316 0
2010	0.495 7	0.502 4	0.488 8	0.188 6	0.474 5	0.273 9
2011	0.513 7	0.526 4	0.533 2	0.202 4	0.521 0	0.316 0
2012	0.522 9	0.534 3	0.562 3	0.258 4	0.585 9	0.307 5
2013	0.531 3	0.550 0	0.574 5	0.305 0	0.543 8	0.357 6
2014	0.538 3	0.559 1	0.575 1	0.362 7	0.445 0	0.353 3
2015	0.543 7	0.559 6	0.571 6	0.586 6	0.473 0	0.317 5
2016	0.543 6	0.553 0	0.569 3	0.732 3	0.476 2	0.319 3
2017	0.537 9	0.552 2	0.568 4	0.903 5	0.433 3	0.700 4