金砖国家对发达国家投资空间格局与动机研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.02.20220050

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

一般认为发展中国家对外直接投资是为了获取市场、自然资源和战略资产，尤其是战略资产寻求，没有效率寻求动机。本文基于2010—2017年金砖国家对发达国家逆向投资数据对此进行检验，并有不同发现：金砖国家对发达国家逆向投资具有市场寻求动机、自然资源寻求动机和效率寻求动机，但没有显著的战略资产寻求动机。从时间维度看，市场寻求动机有增强趋势；而其他三类投资动机有随时间减弱的趋势，但减弱趋势并不显著。从国别维度看，中国、俄罗斯和南非逆向投资具有自然资源寻求动机；中国和印度逆向投资具有战略寻求动机；中国、印度和南非具有效率寻求动机，更偏好劳动力成本低的发达国家。机制分析表明造成投资动机差异的根源在于各国不同的战略意图。

关键词: 金砖国家, 投资动机, 发达国家, 战略资产寻求, 效率寻求

Abstract:

It is generally believed that the reverse investment of developing countries to developed countries is to obtain markets, natural resources and strategic assets, especially the search for strategic assets. There is no motivation to seek efficiency. This paper verifies the conclusion and has different findings. Based on the 2010-2017 BRICS' s foreign investment data, the research found that the BRICS have market seeking motives, natural resource seeking motives and efficiency seeking motives for direct investment in developed countries, but no strategic assets seeking motives. From the perspective of time dimension, the market seeking motives tend to increase, while the other three types of investment motives tend to weaken over time, but they have not passed the statistical test. From the perspective of country, China, Russia, and South Africa have natural resource motives for direct investment in developed countries; China and India have strategic assets seeking motives for investment in developed countries; China, India, and South Africa have efficiency seeking motives and prefer developed countries with lower labor costs. Mechanism analysis shows that the root cause of the difference in investment motivation lies in the different strategic intentions of countries.

Key words: BRICS, investment motivation, developed country, strategic assets seeking, efficiency seeking

陈再齐, 朱晓梅, 钱金保. 金砖国家对发达国家投资空间格局与动机研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(2): 15-26.

Zaiqi CHEN, Xiaomei ZHU, Jinbao QIAN. Research on the spatial pattern and motivation of BRICS countries' investment to developed countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(2): 15-26.

图/表 6

图1 金砖国家逆向投资存量变化数据来源：国际货币基金组织CDIS数据库和世界贸易与发展组织数据库。

Fig.1 BRICS changes of adverse investment stock

图2 金砖国家整体逆向投资空间分布数据来源：国际货币基金组织CDIS数据库和世界贸易与发展组织数据库。注：本图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）1666号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig.2 Spatial distribution of reverse investment in the BRICS

表1 变量选取及数据来源

Tab.1 Variable selection and data source

变量	度量指标或说明	数据来源	观测值	均值	标准差
金砖国家对外直接投资规模	OFDI：双边OFDI存量	IMF协调投资调查数据库	1 200	21.130	78.440
市场寻求型	lnGDP：东道国GDP	世界银行世界发展指标	1 200	3.680	1.687
战略资产寻求型	TECH：东道国的技术准备水平	世界经济论坛发布的年度《全球竞争力报告》	1 200	5.471	0.570
效率寻求型	LAB：东道国时薪	国际劳工组织	1 200	5.531	8.461
自然资源寻求型	RES：东道国燃料、矿石和金属出口占商品出口的百分比	世界银行世界发展指标数据库	1 200	3.174	0.548
汇率水平	EXR：本币汇率，即一单位东道国本位币兑换美元的汇率水平	世界银行世界发展指标数据库	1 200	53.46	204.1
通胀水平	INF：东道国的年通货膨胀率	世界银行世界发展指标数据库	1 200	1.397	1.686
开放程度	IFDI：东道国吸收的FDI存量占当年GDP的比重	贸易和发展会议FDI数据库	1 200	1.639	3.773
经济自由度	lnFREE：经济自由度指数	《华尔街日报》和美国传统基金会发布的年度报告	1 200	4.298	0.120

表2 总体回归结果

Tab.2 Overall regression results

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	（4）	（5）
lnGDP		0.86^***	0.888^***	0.98^***	1.067^***
		(0.140)	(0.147)	(0.167)	(0.179)
TECH			－0.972^*	－0.989^*	－0.535
			(0.548)	(0.551)	(0.592)
RES				0.055^**	0.061^**
				(0.026)	(0.026)
lnLAB					－0.747^**
					(0.375)
EXR	－0.078^**	－0.13^***	－0.145^***	－0.142^***	－0.167^***
	(0.034)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.032)	(0.034)
lnFREE	1.689^***	1.394^***	1.658^***	1.562^***	1.525^***
	(0.212)	(0.224)	(0.249)	(0.247)	(0.244)
INF	－0.458^***	－0.272^**	－0.219^*	－0.25^*	－0.262^**
	(0.128)	(0.128)	(0.130)	(0.131)	(0.130)
IFDI	0.228^**	0.426^***	0.417^***	0.441^***	0.449^***
	(0.098)	(0.104)	(0.100)	(0.105)	(0.104)
控制时间	是	是	是	是	是
控制个体	是	是	是	是	是
观察值	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200

表3 时间趋势估计结果

Tab.3 Time trend estimation results

变量	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)
lnGDP	0.501^*	1.063^***	1.066^***	1.067^***
	(0.283)	(0.178)	(0.180)	(0.179)
t* lnGDP	0.123^**
	(0.061)
TECH	－0.697	0.130	－0.535	－0.534
	(0.599)	(0.936)	(0.592)	(0.592)
t*TECH		－0.163
		(0.206)
RES	0.059^**	0.061^**	0.068	0.061^**
	(0.026)	(0.027)	(0.043)	(0.027)
t*RES			－0.149
			(0.868)
lnLAB	－0.568	－0.704^*	－0.743^**	－0.733
	(0.354)	(0.385)	(0.378)	(0.674)
t*lnLAB				－0.003
				(0.123)
EXR	－0.161^***	－0.172^***	－0.166^***	－0.167^***
	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)	(0.034)
lnFREE	15.59^***	15.44^***	15.25^***	15.25^***
	(2.471)	(2.437)	(2.444)	(2.456)
IFDI	0.453^***	0.444^***	0.448^***	0.449^***
	(0.105)	(0.103)	(0.104)	(0.105)
INF	－0.293^**	－0.276^**	－0.266^**	－0.263^**
	(0.130)	(0.131)	(0.132)	(0.131)
控制时间	是	是	是	是
控制个体	是	是	是	是
观察值	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200

表4 金砖国家间差异回归结果

Tab.4 Estimation results of intra-BRICS comparisons

变量	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)
lnGDP	0.179^***(5.52)	0.103^***(6.64)	0.103^***(6.39)	0.103^***(6.42)	0.216^***(6.22)
$D 1$ *lnGDP	－0.080^**(－2.57)				－0.142^***(－3.77)
$D 2$ *lnGDP	－0.075^***(－2.62)				－0.114^***(－3.41)
$D 3$ *lnGDP	－0.122^**(－2.03)				－0.160^**(－2.46)
$D 4$ *lnGDP	－0.105^***(－3.76)				－0.150^***(－4.55)
TECH	－0.023(－0.43)	0.324^***(4.71)	－0.022(－0.42)	－0.022(－0.42)	0.455^***(5.14)
$D 1$ * TECH		－0.309^***(－3.55)			－0.478^***(－4.15)
$D 2$ * TECH		－0.247^***(－3.09)			－0.291^***(－2.62)
$D 3$ * TECH		－0.796^***(－4.26)			－1.087^***(－5.18)
$D 4$ * TECH		－0.386^***(－5.30)			－0.527^***(－5.30)
lnLAB	－0.091^***(－2.64)	－0.090^***(－2.58)	－0.036(－0.70)	－0.091^***(－2.63)	－0.486^***(－6.31)
$D 1$ * lnLAB			0.023(0.32)		0.521^***(4.48)
$D 2$ * lnLAB			－0.089^*(－1.92)		0.263^***(3.11)
$D 3$ * lnLAB			－0.140(－1.12)		0.731^***(5.51)
$D 4$ * lnLAB			－0.068(－1.47)		0.462^***(5.65)
RES	0.006^***(2.59)	0.006^**(2.58)	0.006^**(2.52)	0.019^***(3.06)	0.023^***(4.03)
$D 1$ * RES				－0.019^***(－2.92)	－0.025^***(－3.97)
$D 2$ * RES				－0.020^***(－3.13)	－0.025^***(－4.06)
$D 3$ * RES				－0.011(－1.29)	－0.015^*(－1.73)
$D 4$ * RES				－0.014^**(－2.29)	－0.020^***(－3.43)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
控制时间	是	是	是	是	是
控制个体	是	是	是	是	是
观察值	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200

表4 金砖国家间差异回归结果

Tab.4 Estimation results of intra-BRICS comparisons

变量	(10)	(11)	(12)	(13)	(14)
lnGDP	0.179^***(5.52)	0.103^***(6.64)	0.103^***(6.39)	0.103^***(6.42)	0.216^***(6.22)
$D 1$ *lnGDP	－0.080^**(－2.57)				－0.142^***(－3.77)
$D 2$ *lnGDP	－0.075^***(－2.62)				－0.114^***(－3.41)
$D 3$ *lnGDP	－0.122^**(－2.03)				－0.160^**(－2.46)
$D 4$ *lnGDP	－0.105^***(－3.76)				－0.150^***(－4.55)
TECH	－0.023(－0.43)	0.324^***(4.71)	－0.022(－0.42)	－0.022(－0.42)	0.455^***(5.14)
$D 1$ * TECH		－0.309^***(－3.55)			－0.478^***(－4.15)
$D 2$ * TECH		－0.247^***(－3.09)			－0.291^***(－2.62)
$D 3$ * TECH		－0.796^***(－4.26)			－1.087^***(－5.18)
$D 4$ * TECH		－0.386^***(－5.30)			－0.527^***(－5.30)
lnLAB	－0.091^***(－2.64)	－0.090^***(－2.58)	－0.036(－0.70)	－0.091^***(－2.63)	－0.486^***(－6.31)
$D 1$ * lnLAB			0.023(0.32)		0.521^***(4.48)
$D 2$ * lnLAB			－0.089^*(－1.92)		0.263^***(3.11)
$D 3$ * lnLAB			－0.140(－1.12)		0.731^***(5.51)
$D 4$ * lnLAB			－0.068(－1.47)		0.462^***(5.65)
RES	0.006^***(2.59)	0.006^**(2.58)	0.006^**(2.52)	0.019^***(3.06)	0.023^***(4.03)
$D 1$ * RES				－0.019^***(－2.92)	－0.025^***(－3.97)
$D 2$ * RES				－0.020^***(－3.13)	－0.025^***(－4.06)
$D 3$ * RES				－0.011(－1.29)	－0.015^*(－1.73)
$D 4$ * RES				－0.014^**(－2.29)	－0.020^***(－3.43)
控制变量	是	是	是	是	是
控制时间	是	是	是	是	是
控制个体	是	是	是	是	是
观察值	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200	1 200

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