中国与环印度洋地区国家间四维贸易关系的时空演化分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.06.20250084

世界地理研究 ›› 2026, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 1-18.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2026.06.20250084

• 国别与区域 •

中国与环印度洋地区国家间四维贸易关系的时空演化分析

袁丽华¹(), 宋长青³^,⁴(), 胡启月⁴, 洪颖², 陈小强⁵

^1.北华航天工业学院，遥感信息工程学院，廊坊 065000
^2.北华航天工业学院，文理学院，廊坊 065000
^3.云南师范大学地理学部，昆明 650050
^4.北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京 100875
^5.天津师范大学地理学部，天津 300387

收稿日期:2025-02-16 修回日期:2025-09-13 出版日期:2026-06-15 发布日期:2026-06-26
通讯作者: 宋长青
作者简介:袁丽华（1988—），女，助理研究员，博士，研究方向为地缘关系与区域发展研究，E-mail：ylh20070901@163.com。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(42201244);北华航天工业学院博士科研启动基金项目(BKY-2025-03)

The spatiotemporal evolution of four-dimensional trade relations between China and the Indian Ocean Rim countries

Lihua YUAN¹(), Changqing SONG³^,⁴(), Qiyue HU⁴, Ying HONG², Xiaoqiang CHEN⁵

^1.School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering, Langfang 065000, China
^2.College of Science and Arts, North China Institute of Aerospace Engineering, Langfang 065000, China
^3.Faculty of Geography, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650050, China
^4.Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
^5.School of Geography and Environmental Science, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin 300387, China

Received:2025-02-16 Revised:2025-09-13 Online:2026-06-15 Published:2026-06-26
Contact: Changqing SONG

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

环印度洋地区（IOR）不仅是中国重要的能源供应地与贸易航运枢纽，也是“一带一路”倡议合作的重点推进区，但域内国家在资源禀赋与发展水平上的差异给双边经贸合作带来挑战。因此，本文基于1992—2020年中国与IOR国家间贸易数据，构建了包含贸易流、依赖性、竞争性与互补性的四维贸易指标体系，耦合Fisher最优分割法与自组织映射网络（SOM）系统分析了中国与IOR国家间贸易关系的时空演变。结果发现：中国与IOR地区贸易发展历经1992—2001年、2002—2008年、2009—2014年和2015—2020年四个阶段，双边贸易额由357亿美元增至8 331亿美元，中国所占贸易份额从3%提升至16%，贸易规模显著扩大，并自第三阶段（2009—2014年）起成为IOR地区最大贸易伙伴，优势持续强化。四维贸易关系分析的总体结果显示，中国-IOR国家间的竞争性长期较弱而互补性特征显著。其中东南亚区域竞争相对激烈，而西亚及非洲则形成资源-制造互补格局。基于2015—2020年四维贸易关系数据的SOM聚类结果揭示了中国-IOR贸易关系的四大贸易群体：核心伙伴国、稳定合作伙伴、高依赖型伙伴及弱连接国家。本文构建的四维贸易关系框架可为理解复杂的国际贸易关系提供新视角与方法支持。

关键词: 四维贸易关系, 贸易流, 贸易依赖性, 贸易竞争性, 贸易互补性, Fisher最优分割法, 自组织映射网络（SOM）, 环印度洋地区国家

Abstract:

The Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) is not only a vital source of energy and trade routes for China but also a key area for advancing of the Belt and Road Initiative. However, the significant differences in resources, economic structures, and development levels among IOR countries create challenges for bilateral trade cooperation. Therefore, analyzing the evolution of trade relations between China and IOR countries is of great importance. This study integrates the Fisher's optimal segmentation method, a four-dimensional indicator system for trade relations—comprising trade flow, trade intensity index, trade competitiveness index, and trade complementarity index, and Self-Organizing Map (SOM) clustering to build a comprehensive analytical framework for examining the spatiotemporal evolution of trade between China and the IOR countries from 1992 to 2020. The results reveal that China's trade relations with the IOR experienced four distinct phases, being 1992-2001, 2002-2008, 2009-2014, and 2015-2020. Over this period, bilateral trade volume surged from US$35.7 billion to US$833.1 billion, while China's share in the IOR's total trade rose from 3% to 16%, indicating a substantial deepening of economic ties, and China has become the IOR's largest trading partner since the third phase(2009-2014),with its advantage continuously strengthening. Overall, China-IOR trade relations are characterized by low competitiveness and strong complementarity. However, regional variations exist: competitiveness is relatively higher in Southeast Asia, whereas West Asia and Africa display a clear resource-manufacturing complementarity pattern. Furthermore, SOM clustering results further identify four types of China–IOR trade relationships: core partners, stable collaborators, highly-dependent partners, and weakly-connected nations. This paper provides a new perspective and methodological approach for understanding complex international trade relationships.

Key words: four-dimensional trade relation, trade flow, trade dependence, trade competitiveness, trade complementarity, Fisher's optimal segmentation method, self-organizing map (SOM), the Indian Ocean Rim (IOR) countries

袁丽华, 宋长青, 胡启月, 洪颖, 陈小强. 中国与环印度洋地区国家间四维贸易关系的时空演化分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2026, 35(6): 1-18.

Lihua YUAN, Changqing SONG, Qiyue HU, Ying HONG, Xiaoqiang CHEN. The spatiotemporal evolution of four-dimensional trade relations between China and the Indian Ocean Rim countries[J]. World Regional Studies, 2026, 35(6): 1-18.

图/表 12

图 1 环印度洋地区国家地理分布图注：基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站审图号为 GS （2016） 1666 号的标准地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig 1 The geographical distribution of the Indian Ocean Rim countries

表1 环印度洋地区国家名称列表

Tab.1 List of the Indian Ocean Rim countries

地理单元	国家数量	国家名称及其英文简写
大洋洲	1	澳大利亚（AUS）
东南亚	6	马来西亚（MYS）、缅甸（MMR）、泰国（THA）、新加坡（SGP）、印度尼西亚（IDN）、东帝汶（TLS）
南亚	5	巴基斯坦（PAK）、马尔代夫（MDV）、孟加拉国（BGD）、斯里兰卡（LKA）、印度（IND）
西亚	11	阿联酋（ARE）、阿曼（OMN）、巴林（BHR）、卡塔尔（QAT）、科威特（KWT）、沙特阿拉伯（SAU）、伊拉克（IRQ）、伊朗（IRN）、也门（YEM）、以色列（ISR）、约旦（JOR）
非洲	13	埃及（EGY）、厄立特里亚（ERI）、吉布提（DJI）、科摩罗（COM）、肯尼亚（KEN）、马达加斯加（MDG）、毛里求斯（MUS）、莫桑比克（MOZ）、南非（ZAF）、塞舌尔（SYC）、苏丹（SDN）、索马里（SOM）、坦桑尼亚（TZA）

表2 四维贸易关系测算方法

Tab.2 Measurement methods for the four-dimensional trade relations framework

贸易关系维度	具体指标	计算公式		指标含义
双边贸易流	双边贸易总额	$T i j = M i j + X i j$	(5)	国家间贸易关系最直观的表现，反映双边贸易规模大小和活跃度
双边贸易流	双边贸易总额	式中： $T i j$ 表示i (IOR国家)和j (中国)之间贸易总额； $M i j 和 X i j$ 分别表示进口和出口贸易额		国家间贸易关系最直观的表现，反映双边贸易规模大小和活跃度
依赖关系	贸易强度指数	$T I I i j = T r a d e i j / T i T j / T w$	(6)	衡量两国贸易强度是否高于其全球平均水平，反映贸易联系紧密程度和相对依赖性
依赖关系	贸易强度指数	式中： $T i$ 、 $T j$ 和 $T w$ 分别表示i 、j和全球贸易总额。TII > 1表示两国贸易强度高于其全球平均水平；反之则低于全球平均水平		衡量两国贸易强度是否高于其全球平均水平，反映贸易联系紧密程度和相对依赖性
竞争关系	贸易竞争性指数	$E S I i j = ∑ k = 1 n m i n X i k, X j k$	(7)	衡量双方出口商品结构的重叠性，反映双方产业结构的相似性和在全球市场的竞争态势
竞争关系	贸易竞争性指数	式中： $X i k$ 和 $X j k$ 分别表示i和j出口商品 $k$ 分别占i和j各自出口总额的比例		衡量双方出口商品结构的重叠性，反映双方产业结构的相似性和在全球市场的竞争态势
互补关系	贸易互补性指数	$C S i j = 1 - 12 ∑ k = 1 n M i k - X j k$	(8)	衡量一方进口与另一方出口结构的匹配度，反映双方贸易结构的互补性强弱，从而揭示贸易合作潜力
		$C C i j = ∑ k = 1 n (M i k X j k) / ∑ k = 1 n (M i k) 2 (X j k) 2$	(9)
		$T C i j = 12 (C S i j + C C i j)$	(10)
		式中： $M i k$ 表示i进口商品k占进口总额的比例； $X j k$ 表示j出口 $k$ 占出口总额的比例

表2 四维贸易关系测算方法

Tab.2 Measurement methods for the four-dimensional trade relations framework

贸易关系维度	具体指标	计算公式		指标含义
双边贸易流	双边贸易总额	$T i j = M i j + X i j$	(5)	国家间贸易关系最直观的表现，反映双边贸易规模大小和活跃度
双边贸易流	双边贸易总额	式中： $T i j$ 表示i (IOR国家)和j (中国)之间贸易总额； $M i j 和 X i j$ 分别表示进口和出口贸易额		国家间贸易关系最直观的表现，反映双边贸易规模大小和活跃度
依赖关系	贸易强度指数	$T I I i j = T r a d e i j / T i T j / T w$	(6)	衡量两国贸易强度是否高于其全球平均水平，反映贸易联系紧密程度和相对依赖性
依赖关系	贸易强度指数	式中： $T i$ 、 $T j$ 和 $T w$ 分别表示i 、j和全球贸易总额。TII > 1表示两国贸易强度高于其全球平均水平；反之则低于全球平均水平		衡量两国贸易强度是否高于其全球平均水平，反映贸易联系紧密程度和相对依赖性
竞争关系	贸易竞争性指数	$E S I i j = ∑ k = 1 n m i n X i k, X j k$	(7)	衡量双方出口商品结构的重叠性，反映双方产业结构的相似性和在全球市场的竞争态势
竞争关系	贸易竞争性指数	式中： $X i k$ 和 $X j k$ 分别表示i和j出口商品 $k$ 分别占i和j各自出口总额的比例		衡量双方出口商品结构的重叠性，反映双方产业结构的相似性和在全球市场的竞争态势
互补关系	贸易互补性指数	$C S i j = 1 - 12 ∑ k = 1 n M i k - X j k$	(8)	衡量一方进口与另一方出口结构的匹配度，反映双方贸易结构的互补性强弱，从而揭示贸易合作潜力
		$C C i j = ∑ k = 1 n (M i k X j k) / ∑ k = 1 n (M i k) 2 (X j k) 2$	(9)
		$T C i j = 12 (C S i j + C C i j)$	(10)
		式中： $M i k$ 表示i进口商品k占进口总额的比例； $X j k$ 表示j出口 $k$ 占出口总额的比例

图2 自组织映射网络（SOM）原理示意图

Fig.2 Schematic diagram of the Self-Organizing Map （SOM） principle

图3 1992—2020年中国与IOR地区贸易额及中国的贸易份额

Fig.3 Bilateral trade value and China’s share of IOR from 1992 to 2020

图4 1992—2020年中国与IOR地区间贸易产品类型

Fig. 4 Trade categories between China and the IOR from 1992 to 2020

图5 1992—2020年各个阶段中国与IOR各国贸易额变化

Fig.5 Changes in China’s trade value with the IOR countries across different phases （1992-2020）

图6 1992—2020年各个阶段中国与IOR各国贸易强度变化注：贸易强度指数指的是IOR各国对中国的贸易强度。

Fig. 6 Changes in trade intensity between China and the IOR countries across different phases （1992-2020）

图7 1992—2020年各个阶段中国与IOR各国贸易竞争性变化

Fig. 7 Changes in trade competitiveness between China and the IOR countries at various phases （1992-2020）

图8 1992—2020年各个阶段中国与IOR各国贸易互补性变化

Fig.8 Changes in trade complementarity between China and the IOR countries at various phases （1992-2020）

图 9 第四阶段（2015—2020年）中国与IOR国家间四维贸易关系的SOM聚类结果

Fig.9 Clusters of China's four-dimensional trade relations with IOR countries using SOM in the fourth phase of 2015-2020

表3 第四阶段（2015—2020年）中国与IOR国家间四维贸易关系的SOM聚类均值统计

Tab.3 Clusters’ averaged-value of China's four-dimensional trade relations with IOR countries using SOM in the fourth phase of 2015-2020

类别	贸易流/亿美元	贸易强度	中国进口-IOR出口	中国出口-IOR进口	贸易竞争
第一类	861.72	0.22	0.47	0.46	0.34
第二类	243.98	0.003	0.45	0.42	0.17
第三类	71.97	0.27	0.34	0.40	0.11
第四类	6.66	-0.49	0.29	0.34	0.12

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中国与环印度洋地区国家间四维贸易关系的时空演化分析

The spatiotemporal evolution of four-dimensional trade relations between China and the Indian Ocean Rim countries

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