入户盗窃犯罪的时空分布热点及其机理研究——以A市CP区警情分析为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.05.2020790

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用核密度估计和Aoristic analysis等方法分析了2015年A市CP区入户盗窃警情的时空分布热点，并通过热点矩阵分类进一步对热点内的犯罪时空分布格局及其内在犯罪机理进行分析。结果显示：CP区共有3个犯罪热点区域和2个集中时段；3个热点区域分别为时间集中-空间聚集型、时间集中-空间分散型、时间集中-空间热点型；同时，影响入户盗窃犯罪的机理在于犯罪主体关联要素、犯罪客体关联要素、犯罪环境关联要素在时空上的密切耦合，共同影响入户盗窃犯罪活动的形成；提示在预防及控制犯罪“热点”中，需要采取更有针对性的防范措施和对策。

关键词: 时空分布热点, 入户盗窃, 犯罪, 影响机理, 警情

Abstract:

This paper uses kernel density estimation and aoristic analysis to analysis the temporal-spatial distribution hotspots of burglary in CP District of A city in 2015, and further analyzes the temporal-spatial distribution pattern and criminal mechanism within the hotspots based on the spatiotemporal hot spot matrix method. The results show that: CP District has three crime hot areas and two concentration periods; the three hot areas are time focused-spatial clustered type, time focused-space dispersed type, and time focused-space hotpoint type; at the same time, the mechanism of influencing burglary crime lies in the close coupling of criminal subject related elements, criminal object related elements and criminal environment related elements in time and space, we suggested that more targeted preventive measures and countermeasures should be taken in the prevention and control of "hot spots" of crime.

Key words: temporal-spatial distribution hot-spots, burglary, crime, mechanism, policing alert

付逸飞. 入户盗窃犯罪的时空分布热点及其机理研究——以A市CP区警情分析为例[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(5): 1005-1014.

Yifei FU. Study on the temporal-spatial distribution hot-spots and mechanisms in burglary: Based on the analysis of policing alert in City A District CP[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(5): 1005-1014.

图/表 5

图1 Aoristic分析法对于时间分析的算法过程

Fig.1 Time analysis process of Aoristic analysis method

图2 犯罪分布的时空热点矩阵

Fig.2 The temporal-spatial hotspots matrix of crime distribution

图3 A市CP区入户盗窃警情的核密度分析（左）与时间分布（右）

Fig.3 The nuclear density analysis and time distribution of burglary in CP district of city A

图4 热点1、2、3入户盗窃的时空特征注：左图为空间分布，右图为时间分布。

Fig.4 The temporal-spatial characteristics of burglary in hot spot 1，2，3

图5 基于“日常活动理论”的入户盗窃发生机理

Fig.5 The mechanism of burglary based on the Routine Activity Theory

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