主管单位：中国科学技术协会
主办单位：中国地理学会
承办单位：华东师范大学
世界地理研究

世界地理研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 1-13.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.10.20222367

• 海洋命运共同体与海上丝绸之路 •    

中日韩-东盟国家间产业转移与海上运输增长格局研究

王列辉1,2,3(), 陈锐1, 张圣1   

  1. 1.华东师范大学全球创新与发展研究院，上海 200062
    2.华东师范大学，中国行政区划研究中心，上海 200241
    3.华东师范大学，未来城市实验室，上海 200241
  • 收稿日期:2022-11-03 修回日期:2023-01-28 出版日期:2023-10-15 发布日期:2023-10-25
  • 作者简介:王列辉（1978—），男，教授，博士，研究方向为交通地理学、城市地理学、历史地理学，E-mail：lhwang@re.ecnu.edu.cn。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社科基金重大项目(20&ZD070);国家自然科学基金面上项目(42371178);中央高校基本科研业务费项目华东师范大学人文社会科学青年跨学科学术创新团队项目(2022QKT002);新文科创新平台(2022ECNU-XWK-XK001)

Industrial transfer and maritime transport growth pattern between ASEAN and China, Japan, S.Korea

Liehui WANG1,2,3(), Rui CHEN1, Sheng ZHANG1   

  1. 1.Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China
    2.a Research Center for China Administrative Division,
    3.b Future City Lab, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
  • Received:2022-11-03 Revised:2023-01-28 Online:2023-10-15 Published:2023-10-25

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摘要：

2008年后中日韩与东盟进入新一轮产业转移，在此影响下，中日韩与东盟海上物流运输进入快速调整阶段。当前，集装箱运输作为跨国运输的主要方式，在产业转移趋势下的变动特征与影响机制需要进一步理清。本文研究2009年至2021年间中日韩和东盟国家间产业转移对集装箱增长的影响。基于核密度和偏移增长方法分析集装箱增长与产业转移的时空匹配性，基于OLS及PPML引力模型计量回归方法测算产业转移引起的中间产品增加值提升对集装箱增长的带动作用。主要发现如下：①产业转移引起的中间产品增加值提高对当前集装箱航线增长具有显著的促进作用；②在时间上，产业转移对集装箱航线的增长具有滞后性，产业转移后三年的带动效应最大；③在空间上，产业转移对集装箱增长的影响具有空间差异，日本与东盟、中国与东盟的产业转移对集装箱增长的促进效应较大，韩国与东盟的产业转移影响不显著。从港口地理视角出发，提出中国港口与东盟国家构建“双圈层”联通格局、建设南海先行区的发展建议。本文能为中国在东亚和东南亚地区集装箱运输的政策制定提供决策参考。

关键词: 产业转移, 航线偏移增长, 双圈层模式, 中日韩-东盟

Abstract:

China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN have entered a new round of industrial transfer after 2008, and under the influence of this new trend, container logistics between China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN have entered a period of rapid adjustment. At present, container transportation is the main form of cross-border transportation. In view of the new development trend, the characteristics and effect mechanism of the changes in container logistics need to be further clarified. We focus on the impact of industrial transfer between China, Japan, Korea, and ASEAN countries on container growth between 2009 and 2021, and analyze the Spatiotemporal matching of container growth with industrial relocation based on kernel density and shift-share methods. Based on OLS and PPML gravity model econometric regression methods are applied to measure the increase in value added of intermediate goods caused by industrial relocations driving container growth. The main results of the full paper are as follows: ① Increasing the value of intermediate products through industry transfer is a major contributor to the growth of current container routes. ②In terms of time, the industry transfer has a lagging effect on the growth of container routes. Industry transfer drives the production and export of intermediate goods, and the driving effect is greatest three years later. ③Spatially, there are spatial differences in the effects of the industry transfer on container growth. The industry transfer between Japan and ASEAN, China and ASEAN have a stronger driving effect on container growth, while South Korea and ASEAN have no significant effect. From the perspective of port geography, we suggest that Chinese ports and ASEAN countries can build a "double-loop" connectivity pattern and establish an antecedence zone in the South China Sea. This study can serve as a reference for the design of China's container transportation policy in East and Southeast Asia.

Key words: industrial transfer, Shift-Share, double-loop model, ASEAN and China, Japan, S.Korea