多灾种综合风险评估理论与方法

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.10.2021659

世界地理研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (10): 100-109.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.10.2021659

• 城市与产业 • 上一篇

多灾种综合风险评估理论与方法

王军¹^,³(), 李梦雅²^,³(), 吴绍洪⁴^,⁵

^1.华东师范大学，地理科学学院，上海 200241
^2.华东师范大学，公共管理学院，上海 200241
^3.华东师范大学，上海城市公共安全研究中心，上海 200241
^4.中国科学院，地理科学与资源研究所，北京 100101
^5.中国科学院，陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101

收稿日期:2021-09-15 修回日期:2021-12-07 出版日期:2023-10-15 发布日期:2023-10-25
通讯作者: 李梦雅
作者简介:王军（1975—），男，教授，博士生导师，主要从事城市灾害风险与公共安全管理研究，E-mail： jwang@geo.ecnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA105)

Theories and methodologies for assessing multi-hazard risk

Jun WANG¹^,³(), Mengya LI²^,³(), Shaohong WU⁴^,⁵

^1.a School of Geographic Sciences
^2.School of Public Administration
^3.Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
^4.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research
^5.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China

Received:2021-09-15 Revised:2021-12-07 Online:2023-10-15 Published:2023-10-25
Contact: Mengya LI

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化等多重背景下，多灾种综合风险已成为人类社会必须面对的挑战。多灾种综合风险评估是实施风险防范的基础。以成熟的单灾种风险研究为切入点，探讨多灾种综合风险评估的理论基础和方法类型。其理论基础之一是多灾种的概念模型，用于刻画多灾种的组合方式；理论基础之二是风险系统框架，用于描述风险系统的组成要素及其关系。多灾种风险评估的关键是实现对单灾种风险的综合，这种综合方法可分为累加式综合和过程式综合。未来既要密切关注灾害风险多要素的相互关系，更要高度重视环境变化对灾害过程和风险结果的影响。在深刻理解现有风险系统框架的基础上，以单灾种风险剖析为基础，以灾种间的关联性和组合特征为牵引，以情景分析思想为助力，有助于实现多灾种综合风险评估。

关键词: 多灾种风险, 综合风险评估, 风险系统框架, 情景分析

Abstract:

In the context of climate change, economic globalization and rapid urbanization, the multi-hazard risk has become a major threat to human society. Risk assessment is the foundation of risk prevention. Based on an in-depth examination of literature, this paper summarizes the theories and methodologies for assessing multi-hazard risk in the past two decades. The comprehensive risk assessment has two significant theory foundations: the conceptual models which indicate the combination way of multi-hazards and the risk frameworks which describe the risk elements and their relationships as well as developing the assessment models. The key to multi-hazard risk assessment is the integration of single hazard risk, and the method for integration can be classified to two categories: integration of risk values and integration of hazard processes. It deserves closer attention to investigate both the complex relationship between various disasters and risk elements as well as the complex impact of environmental changes on disaster risk. The scenario-based modeling and risk assessing method may be a better choice for meeting the demands of the current era. It is feasible to take the single hazard risk analysis as a starting point, the interrelationships between various hazards as traction, and the scenario analysis method as a propellant to implement multi-hazards risk assessment.

Key words: multi-hazard, comprehensive risk assessment, risk framework, scenario analysis

王军, 李梦雅, 吴绍洪. 多灾种综合风险评估理论与方法[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(10): 100-109.

Jun WANG, Mengya LI, Shaohong WU. Theories and methodologies for assessing multi-hazard risk[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(10): 100-109.

图/表 2

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多灾种综合风险评估理论与方法

Theories and methodologies for assessing multi-hazard risk

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