近60a全球经济-人口-粮食重心的演变特征及耦合关系

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.09.20222397

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于重心及耦合分析模型，分析1960—2020年全球经济、人口和粮食重心的空间格局与演变特征，并剖析其耦合关系及影响因素。结果显示：（1）3组重心均明显偏向北半球，这与全球海陆分布紧密相关，北半球相较于南半球陆地面积大、自然条件相对优越。经济重心位于几何中心（0°，0°）的西北方向，粮食重心和人口重心位于几何中心的东北方向；（2）经济重心快速东移且幅度大；人口重心主要表现为自北向南移动，1990年前由西北向东南方向移动，1990年后由东北向西南方向移动，移动幅度较小；粮食重心的跳动幅度较大且最不稳定，规律性不明显；（3）经济重心和粮食重心具有高度耦合性；粮食重心和人口重心具有耦合性，但不显著；经济重心和人口重心耦合性低，但处于逐渐增强状态。

关键词: 演变特征, 耦合关系, 经济重心, 粮食重心, 人口重心

Abstract:

Based on the center of gravity and coupling analysis model, we calculate the spatial pattern and evolution characteristics of global economic, population and grain centers of gravity from 1960 to 2020, and analyze their coupling relationships and influencing factors. The results show that: (1) The centers of gravity of all three groups are obviously biased toward the northern hemisphere, which is closely related to the global distribution of land and sea, and the northern hemisphere has a larger land area and superior natural conditions than the southern hemisphere. The economic center of gravity is located in the northwest of the geometric center (0°, 0°), and the grain and population centers of gravity are located in the northeast of the geometric center; (2) The economic center of gravity moves eastward rapidly and with a large magnitude; the population center of gravity mainly moves from northwest to south, from northwest to southeast before 1990, and from northeast to the southwest after 1990, with a smaller movement; the grain center of gravity has a large jump and is the most unstable, and the regularity is not obvious;(3) The economic and grain centers of gravity are highly coupled; the grain and population centers of gravity are coupled, but not significantly; the economic and population centers of gravity are lowly coupled but in a gradually increasing state.

Key words: evolutionary characteristics, coupling relationships, economic center of gravity, grain center of gravity, population center of gravity

孙芮, 仲俊涛. 近60a全球经济-人口-粮食重心的演变特征及耦合关系[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(9): 31-44.

Rui SUN, Juntao ZHONG. Evolutionary characteristics and coupling of the global economic-population-grain center of gravity in the last 60 years[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(9): 31-44.

图/表 4

参考文献 46

1	张善余,陈暄. 20世纪:世界人口与经济发展回眸.世界地理研究, 2001, 10(4): 1-7.
	ZHANG S, CHEN X. A review of the world population growth and economic development in 20th century. World Regional Studies, 2001,10 (4):1-7.
2	罗秀丽,杨忍,徐茜. 全球人口与粮食的空间错位演变及影响因素分析.自然资源学报,2021,36(6):1381-1397.
	LUO X, YANG R, XU Q. Spatial mismatch evolution of global population and food its influencing factors. Journal of Natural Resources, 2021, 36(6):1381-1397.
3	陈栋生.论区域协调发展.北京社会科学, 2005(2): 3-10.
	CHEN D.On harmonious development of regional economy. Social Sciences of Beijing, 2005(2): 3-10.
4	樊杰,陶岸君,吕晨. 中国经济与人口重心的耦合态势及其对区域发展的影响.地理科学进展,2010,29(1):87-95.
	FAN J, TAO A, LYU C. The coupling mechanism of the centroids of economic gravity and population gravity and its effect on regional gap in China. Progress in Geography, 2010, 29(1): 87-95.
5	程远亮,周伟,米红. 粮食生产布局与人口分布的空间差异及其演变.统计与信息论坛,2010,25(2):94-99.
	CHENG Y, ZHOU W, MI H. Spatial disequilibrium and evolvement of grain production and population distribution. Journal of Statistics and Information,2010, 25(2):94-99.
6	田亚芸. 山东省经济重心时空迁移研究及经济高质量发展对策探讨.聊城:聊城大学, 2020.
	TIAN Y. A study on the spatiotemporal migration of Shandong's economic center of gravity and countermeasures for high-quality economic development. Shandong: Liaocheng University, 2020.
7	刘英姿, 董治宝. 陕西省人口重心与经济重心的空间演变及对比分析.陕西农业科学, 2012, 58(2): 179-183.
	LIU Y, DONG Z. Spatial evolution and comparative analysis of population centre of gravity and economic center of gravity in Shaanxi Province. Shaanxi Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 2012, 58(2):179-183.
8	黄建山,冯宗宪. 我国产业经济重心演变路径及其影响因素分析.地理与地理信息科学, 2005, 21(5): 49-54.
	HUANG J, FENG Z. An empirical analysis on the variation track of the industrial gravity center and its influence factors. Geography and Geo-Information Science, 2005, 21(5):49-54.
9	ABOUFADEL E, AUSTIN D. A new method for computing the mean center of population of the United States. The Professional Geographer, 2006, 58(1): 65-69.
10	KELIN L R. Measurement of a shift in the world's center of economic gravity. Journal of Policy Modeling,2009, 31(4):489-492.
11	GRETHER J M, MATHYS N A. Is the world's economic centre of gravity already in Asia? Area, 2010, 42(1): 47-50.
12	YAN Y, QU J, HAO X, et al. Characterizing spatial-temporal changes of heat waves in China using center of gravity analysis. Physical Geography, 2017, 38(4): 1-13.
13	李仪俊. 我国的人口重心及其移动轨迹.人口研究, 1983(1): 28-32.
	LI Y. The center of gravity of China's population and its moving trajectory. Population Research, 1983(1):28-32.
14	张善余. 我国省际人口迁移模式的重大变化.人口研究, 1990(1): 2-8.
	ZHANG S. Major changes in the migration patterns among provinces in China. Population Research, 1990(1): 2-8.
15	徐建华,岳文泽. 近20年来中国人口重心与经济重心的演变及其对比分析.地理科学, 2001, 21(5): 385-389.
	XU J, YUE W. Evolvement and comparative analysis of the population center gravity and the economy gravity center in recent twenty years in China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2001,21 (5): 385-389.
16	孙希华. 山东省产业重心转移与可持续发展研究.地球信息科学, 2001(1): 27-31.
	SUN X. The study of movement of industrial weight center basing on GIS and its sustainable development measurement in Shandong Province. Journal of Geo-Information Science, 2001(1): 27-31.
17	冯宗宪,黄建山. 重心研究方法在中国产业与经济空间演变及特征中的实证应用.社会科学家, 2005(2): 77-80.
	FENG Z, HUANG J. Empirical application of the center of gravity research method to the spatial evolution and characteristics of Chinese industries and economy. Social Scientist, 2005(2): 77-80.
18	张蕴岭. "世界经济重心转移"浅议.西欧研究, 1985(1): 13-18.
	ZHANG Y. A discussion of the "shift in the centre of gravity of the world economy". Western European Studies, 1985(1): 13-18.
19	董健. 世界经济重心移向亚洲.经济论坛, 1995(12): 46-47.
	DONG J. The world's economic centre of gravity shifts to Asia. Economic Forum, 1995(12): 46-47.
20	陶曼特,郑淑云. 世界经济重心东移.世界知识,2005(13): 26.
	TAO M, ZHENG S. The eastward shift of the world economic center of gravity. World Affairs, 2005(13): 26.
21	李长久. 世界经济重心回归亚洲与美国战略重心东移.亚太经济, 2011(1): 10-15.
	LI C. The focus of the world economy returns to Asia and U.S. strategic foucs shifts eastward. Asi-pacific Economy Review, 2011(1): 10-15.
22	陈万旭,蔡伟娜,张宸,等. 全球粮食安全风险格局时空特征分析.中国农业资源与区划,2023,44(6):38-51.
	CHEN W, CAI W, ZHANG C, et al. Analysis of spatiotemporal pattern of global grain security risks. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2023,44(6):38-51.
23	赵霞,封志明,杨艳昭. 1961年至2007年全球粮食生产的时空演变特征与地域格局.资源科学,2010,32(5):907-916.
	ZHAO X, FENG Z, YANG Y. An evaluation of world cereals production in recent 50 years from a view of spatial-Temporal patterns and regional differences. Resource Science, 2010, 32(5): 907-916.
24	马恩朴,蔡建明,林静,等. 2000—2014年全球粮食安全格局的时空演化及影响因素.地理学报,2020,75(2):332-347.
	MA E, CAI J, LIN J, et al. Spatio-temporal evolution of global food security pattern and its influencing factors in 2000-2014. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2020, 75(2):332-347.
25	刘美娟,王蓓,仲俊涛. 近30年来青海省人口-经济-粮食区域差异与空间格局.西北人口,2021,42(6):113-124.
	LIU M, WANG B, ZHONG J. Population-economic-grain regional difference and spatial pattern of Qinghai Province in the past 30 years. Northwest Population Journal, 2021, 42(6):113-124.
26	仲俊涛,米文宝,候景伟,等. 改革开放以来宁夏区域差异与空间格局研究——基于人口、经济和粮食重心的演变特征及耦合关系.经济地理,2014,34(5):14-20.
	ZHONG J, MI W, HOU J, et al. Regional differences and spatial pattern since reform and opening up in Ningxia--Based on the evolutionary character and the coupling relationship of gravity center of population, economic and grain. Economic Geography, 2014, 34(5):14-20.
27	赵燕,张成虎. 西部地区经济重心与对外贸易重心空间演化路径研究——基于1999—2013年区域面板数据分析.西藏大学学报(社会科学版),2015,30(3):62-70.
	ZHAO Y, ZHANG C. Path study on spatial evolution of economic gravity center and foreign trade center of western region in China--Based on the analysis of regional panel data from 1999 to 2013. Journal of Tibet University,2015,30(3):62-70.
28	赵松松,王兆峰.区域旅游发展规模与效率时空动态演化及耦合研究——以湖南省14地市(州)为例.长江流域资源与环境,2019,28(10):2386-2396.
	ZHAO S, WANG Z. Spatial and temporal dynamic evolution and coupling relationship of regional tourism development scale and efficiency: A case study of 14 cities and municipalities in Hunan Province. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2019, 28(10):2386-2396.
29	陈展图,李凤彩,黄婷,等. 2005—2019年广西经济重心空间变化及其影响因素分析.经济与社会发展,2021,19(5):21-29.
	CHEN Z, LI F, HUANG T, et al. Analysis of the spatial change of Guangxi's economic center of gravity and its influencing factors from 2005-2019. Economic and Social Development, 2021, 19(5):21-29.
30	高军波,谢文全,韩勇,等.1990—2013年河南省县域人口、经济和粮食生产重心的迁移轨迹与耦合特征——兼议与社会剥夺的关系.地理科学,2018,38(6):919-926.
	GAO J, XIE W, HAN Y, et al. The evolutionary trend and coupling relation of gravity center moving of county-level population distribution, economical development and grain production during 1990-2013 in Henan Province. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(6):919-926.
31	林进成.论世界经济增长重心的转移.世界经济,1994(12):9-15.
	LIN J. On the shift in the center of gravity of world economic growth. The Journal of World Economy, 1994(12):9-15.
32	李宗伟.世界经济重心.中学政治教学参考,1994(Z1):64-65.
	LI Z. The center of gravity of the world economy. Teaching Reference of Middle School Politics, 1994(Z1):64-65.
33	冯春艳,朱和. 以史为鉴知兴替——追溯1997年亚洲金融危机对石油石化业的影响.中国石油和化工经济分析,2009(1):22-27.
	FENG C, ZHU H. Learning from history to understand the rise and fall--Tracing the impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the petroleum and petrochemical industry. Economic Analysis of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry, 2009(1):22-27.
34	仇朝兵.冷战结束以来美国经济实力之变化.中国国情国力,2013(7):55-57.
	QIU C. Changes in U.S. economic power since the end of the Cold War. China National Conditions and Strength, 2013(7):55-57.
35	毛爱华,张善余.当代拉丁美洲人口发展特点和趋势分析.拉丁美洲研究,2006,28(4):43-47.
	MAO A, ZHANG S. Characteristics and future development of Latin American demography. Journal of Latin American Studies,2006,28(4):43-47.
36	张振洲.人口问题困扰非洲.中学地理教学参考,1997(11):16.
	ZHANG Z. Population problems plaguing Africa. Teaching Reference of Middle School Geography, 1997(11):16.
37	辛仁周. 90年代世界人口的增长趋势及其影响.南方人口,1992(3):41-43.
	XIN R. Trends in world population growth in the 1990s and their implications. South China Population, 1992(3):41-43.
38	闵家楠,曹小曙. 国际人口迁移特征及影响因素分析.宝鸡文理学院学报(自然科学版),2018,38(2):63-69.
	MIN J, CAO X. Analysis on characteristic of international population migration and its influential factors. Journal of Baoji University of Arts and Sciences (Natural Science Edition), 2018, 38(2):63-69.
39	韩一军,刘岩.世界粮食产业发展现状及变化趋势.农业展望,2012,8(1):39-42.
	HAN Y, LIU Y. Current situation and changing trends of the world food industry. Agricultural Outlook, 2012, 8(1):39-42.
40	刘桂春,张昊,刘志晨. 人口重心和经济重心时空演变研究——以辽宁省为例.哈尔滨商业大学学报(社会科学版),2017(5):58-67.
	LIU G, ZHANG H, LIU Z.A study on the spatial and temporal evolution of population foucs and economic center of gravity--Taking Liaoning Province as an example. Journal of Harbin University of Commerce (Social Science Edition), 2017(5):58-67.
41	郝琪,谢红霞,隋兵,等. 湖南省2007—2016年人口重心和经济重心时空变化研究.新西部,2019(35):51-52.
	HAO Q, XIE H, SUI B, et al. A study on the spatial and temporal changes of population and economic centres of gravity in Hunan Province, 2007-2016. New West, 2019(35):51-52.
42	雨舟. 亚洲将成为世界经济重心.时代金融,2005(6):8-10.
	YU Z. Asia to become the centre of gravity of the world economy. Times Finance, 2005(6):8-10.
43	董伍伦. 世界经济重心转向东亚及我国的对策.港澳经济,1995(9):42-47.
	DONG W. The shift of the world's economic centre of gravity to East Asia and China's response. Hong Kong & Macao Economy, 1995(9):42-47.
44	李长久. 经济重心回归亚洲携力实现共同复兴.亚非纵横,2012(1):9-15.
	LI C. The return of economic gravity to Asia: Towards a common recovery. Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs, 2012(1):9-15.
45	许世卫,王禹,潘月红,等. 全球主要粮食生产与贸易格局演变分析及展望.农业展望,2018,14(3):73-87.
	XU S, WANG Y, PAN Y, et al. Analysis and prospect on the pattern evolutions of production and trade of global major grain. Agricultural Outlook, 2018, 14(3):73-87.
46	于潇,崔仟.长吉图开发开放先导区人口与经济协调发展研究.人口学刊,2011(5):25-31.
	YU X, CUI Q. A study on coordinated development of population and economy in Changjitu Pilot Zone. Population Journal, 2011(5):25-31.

年份	经济		粮食		人口
年份	Y纬度	X经度	Y纬度	X经度	Y纬度	X经度
1960	39.91°N	39.07°W	18.18°N	16.40°E	29.77°N	49.04°E
1965	38.69°N	35.84°W	18.38°N	15.84°E	29.28°N	48.89°E
1970	39.62°N	27.16°W	18.52°N	16.95°E	28.83°N	49.82°E
1975	38.81°N	14.87°W	18.87°N	20.32°E	28.35°N	50.57°E
1980	38.55°N	10.18°W	19.48°N	21.41°E	27.78°N	50.73°E
1985	38.93°N	17.75°W	19.87°N	22.15°E	27.21°N	50.97°E
1990	40.49°N	1.46°W	20.09°N	17.53°E	26.72°N	51.24°E
1995	39.02°N	6.29°E	22.05°N	18.78°E	26.24°N	51.13°E
2000	39.05°N	5.81°W	22.41°N	18.09°E	25.74°N	50.95°E
2005	39.35°N	4.42°W	22.66°N	18.70°E	25.28°N	50.65°E
2010	36.50°N	5.78°E	22.33°N	17.97°E	24.83°N	50.23°E
2015	36.29°N	7.15°E	22.33°N	18.03°E	24.39°N	49.91°E
2020	37.00°N	10.49°E	22.28°N	18.39°E	23.95°N	49.49°E

年份	经济		粮食		人口
年份	Y纬度	X经度	Y纬度	X经度	Y纬度	X经度
1960	39.91°N	39.07°W	18.18°N	16.40°E	29.77°N	49.04°E
1965	38.69°N	35.84°W	18.38°N	15.84°E	29.28°N	48.89°E
1970	39.62°N	27.16°W	18.52°N	16.95°E	28.83°N	49.82°E
1975	38.81°N	14.87°W	18.87°N	20.32°E	28.35°N	50.57°E
1980	38.55°N	10.18°W	19.48°N	21.41°E	27.78°N	50.73°E
1985	38.93°N	17.75°W	19.87°N	22.15°E	27.21°N	50.97°E
1990	40.49°N	1.46°W	20.09°N	17.53°E	26.72°N	51.24°E
1995	39.02°N	6.29°E	22.05°N	18.78°E	26.24°N	51.13°E
2000	39.05°N	5.81°W	22.41°N	18.09°E	25.74°N	50.95°E
2005	39.35°N	4.42°W	22.66°N	18.70°E	25.28°N	50.65°E
2010	36.50°N	5.78°E	22.33°N	17.97°E	24.83°N	50.23°E
2015	36.29°N	7.15°E	22.33°N	18.03°E	24.39°N	49.91°E
2020	37.00°N	10.49°E	22.28°N	18.39°E	23.95°N	49.49°E

年份	经济重心		粮食重心		人口重心
年份	距离/km	方向	距离/km	方向	距离/km	方向
1960—1965	384.41	东南	65.32	西北	56.48	西南
1965—1970	969.18	东北	124.14	东北	114.34	东南
1970—1975	1 368.18	东南	376.73	东北	99.55	东南
1975—1980	522.91	东南	138.56	东北	65.16	东南
1980—1985	842.82	西北	93.21	东北	68.96	东南
1985—1990	1 818.04	东北	513.80	西北	62.32	东南
1990—1995	876.88	东南	258.76	东北	55.23	西南
1995—2000	1 344.24	西北	86.58	西北	57.96	西南
2000—2005	157.91	东北	73.27	东北	61.82	西南
2005—2010	1 176.33	东南	89.55	西南	67.97	西南
2010—2015	154.03	东南	6.56	东南	60.01	西南
2015—2020	379.41	东北	40.72	东南	67.85	西南

年份	经济重心		粮食重心		人口重心
年份	距离/km	方向	距离/km	方向	距离/km	方向
1960—1965	384.41	东南	65.32	西北	56.48	西南
1965—1970	969.18	东北	124.14	东北	114.34	东南
1970—1975	1 368.18	东南	376.73	东北	99.55	东南
1975—1980	522.91	东南	138.56	东北	65.16	东南
1980—1985	842.82	西北	93.21	东北	68.96	东南
1985—1990	1 818.04	东北	513.80	西北	62.32	东南
1990—1995	876.88	东南	258.76	东北	55.23	西南
1995—2000	1 344.24	西北	86.58	西北	57.96	西南
2000—2005	157.91	东北	73.27	东北	61.82	西南
2005—2010	1 176.33	东南	89.55	西南	67.97	西南
2010—2015	154.03	东南	6.56	东南	60.01	西南
2015—2020	379.41	东北	40.72	东南	67.85	西南

[1]	刘洋, 乔家君, 肖杰, 张玉珍, 潘涛. 河南省乡村人口-经济空间耦合研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(7): 172-183.
[2]	蒋丽. 全球生产网络视角下珠三角地区汽车制造业布局时空演变特征研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(12): 118-128.
[3]	杨欣雨, 牛方曲. 辽宁省城市化进程与资源环境压力时空耦合过程研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 317-328.
[4]	丁梓越, 刘海砚, 陈晓慧, 麻洪川. 中东地区恐怖主义指数时空演变及其影响因素的时空异质性[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(2): 245-256.
[5]	屈秋实, 王礼茂, 牟初夫, 熊琛然, 方叶兵. 巴基斯坦能源发展演变特征分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(6): 50-58.
[6]	马红涛, 楼嘉军, 刘润. 中国城市居民休闲消费能力时空差异演变分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(6): 145-155.
[7]	赵军阳丁疆辉王新宇. 不同尺度下中国“淘宝村”时空分布及演变特征[J]. 世界地理研究, 2017, 26(6): 73-82.