气候变化背景下荷兰三角洲安全韧性监测评估体系及规划启示

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.12.20240864

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，全球的极端气候事件较为频繁，海平面的上升令沿海地区安全韧性形势愈加严峻，对我国防灾规划提出了新挑战。因此，提前规划能够提升应变能力、反思既往实践的不足、持续追踪领域前沿动态，对提升规划机动性具有重要意义。本研究对荷兰三角洲安全韧性的监测评估体系发展过程、模式内容及驱动机制进行深入剖析：荷兰三角洲规划创新性地提出了一种监测评估体系，在法律和财务的保障及行政协议的约束下，基于三循环学习理念，通过双线监测机制，全方位地对规划措施、规划目标、规划方法和假设前提进行深度评估，并定期对监测评估体系进行再评估，实现自我迭代，为每年三角洲规划的调整提供了强有力的参考依据，从而有效提升了三角洲的安全韧性，体现出该体系的全面性、动态性与协同性的特征。对此，从监测评估系统的建立、间接影响因子的识别、跨界治理路径的构建，以及定期目标价值的校验评估4个方面对我国的发展提出经验启示。

关键词: 三角洲规划, 监测评估体系, 荷兰, 外部因素, 循环学习

Abstract:

In recent years, extreme weather and climate events have occurred frequently around the world. The rise in sea levels has made the safety and resilience situation in coastal areas more severe. Climate change has brought new challenges to disaster prevention planning, which is crucial to effectively reflect on the shortcomings of past planning practices and continue to learn at the forefront of the field to make planning more agile. Delta Programme proposes a monitoring-assessment-adjustment system. Under the legal and financial guarantees, based on administrative agreements, using a dual-line monitoring approach, through the theory of loop-learning, it comprehensively evaluates the planning measures, planning goals, planning working methods, and the assumptions based on the planning. It also regularly iterates the monitoring and evaluation system, providing a strong reference for the adjustment of the planning every year, thereby effectively improving the safety and resilience of the Dutch Delta. The experience of the system provides valuable reference and inspiration for the construction of a resilience planning monitoring and evaluation system.

Key words: Delta Programme, monitoring-assessment-adjustment system, Netherlands, external signal, loop learning

周泽宇, 翟国方. 气候变化背景下荷兰三角洲安全韧性监测评估体系及规划启示[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(12): 61-74.

Zeyu ZHOU, Guofang ZHAI. Monitoring and evaluation system of safety resilience in the Dutch Delta under the background of climate change and its implications[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(12): 61-74.

图/表 11

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成员所属机构或担任职务	成员数/个	是否核心成员
高校	1	是
咨询公司	1	是
三角洲研究所	2	其中1名为核心成员
三角洲专员办公室秘书	1	是，并担任组织秘书
荷兰统计	2	否
三角洲研究所	1	否
荷兰皇家气象研究所 (KNMI)	1	否
环境评价机构	2	否
国家公共卫生及环境研究院	1	否
公共工程和水管理总司（RWS）	1	否
社会文化规划局	1	否
瓦赫宁根大学及研究中心	1	否
基础设施和水管理部	1	否，但担任观察员

成员所属机构或担任职务	成员数/个	是否核心成员
高校	1	是
咨询公司	1	是
三角洲研究所	2	其中1名为核心成员
三角洲专员办公室秘书	1	是，并担任组织秘书
荷兰统计	2	否
三角洲研究所	1	否
荷兰皇家气象研究所 (KNMI)	1	否
环境评价机构	2	否
国家公共卫生及环境研究院	1	否
公共工程和水管理总司（RWS）	1	否
社会文化规划局	1	否
瓦赫宁根大学及研究中心	1	否
基础设施和水管理部	1	否，但担任观察员

专题类型	固定监测指标
雨洪安全	规划的堤坝与建筑物数量、5年内完成评估的堤坝数、5年后预计能达标的堤坝数、规划实施后经济风险、伤亡风险下降的百分比
淡水供应	对话数量和进展、参与对话的各方数量和范围、相关方是否就责任的分配达成一致、措施透明度、空间规划中淡水可用性、公众节水意识
空间适应性	进行了压力测试、风险对话并制定了战略、实施时间表和已将空间适应任务纳入环境愿景规划的地区数

专题类型	固定监测指标
雨洪安全	规划的堤坝与建筑物数量、5年内完成评估的堤坝数、5年后预计能达标的堤坝数、规划实施后经济风险、伤亡风险下降的百分比
淡水供应	对话数量和进展、参与对话的各方数量和范围、相关方是否就责任的分配达成一致、措施透明度、空间规划中淡水可用性、公众节水意识
空间适应性	进行了压力测试、风险对话并制定了战略、实施时间表和已将空间适应任务纳入环境愿景规划的地区数

维度	指标
海平面上升	2050年、2100年和2200年海平面预计上升幅度，沙滩补给量，风暴潮屏障关闭频率，发生高于8英尺风暴的频率
主要河流状况	莱茵河和马斯河的流量极值
未来发展情况	2050年土地利用方式、经济和人口的预测
干旱	实际降雨量与正常降雨量之间的差值
盐碱化	进水口中断频率和持续时间
内涝	实测和预测的最大小时和最大两日降雨量
极端高温	白天平均气温高于30°C和夜间平均气温高于20°C的天数
风险学新知识	损失伤亡曲线、成本函数等
公众意识	公众对气候变化的态度和公众风险意识水平