中美在东南亚地区的数字经济权力时空格局及竞争态势

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.12.20240942

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

数字经济正在催生“权力的新维度”，并逐渐成为重塑全球竞争格局的重要力量。东南亚因其在地缘政治和数字经济发展潜力等方面具有战略意义，逐渐成为域内外大国数字权力竞争的关键角力场。文章借鉴国际关系学科权力与相互依赖理论，构建了数字经济权力静态比较模型，旨在揭示2009—2021年中美在东南亚地区数字经济权力时空格局及竞争态势。研究发现：①中美在东南亚地区数字经济权力均呈现增长趋势。从增速来看，中国在东南亚地区数字经济权力增速比美国快；从权力大小来看，中国在东南亚地区数字经济权力已超越美国。②中国在东南亚地区数字经济权力主要以权力中能区为主体，权力高能区空间不断拓展；而美国在东南亚地区数字经济权力主要以权力低能区为主体，权力中能区空间不断拓展。③中美在东南亚地区数字经济权力竞争态势主要以中美数字经济权力竞争区和中国数字经济权力区两种态势交替呈现，主要集中在泰国和马来西亚，除新加坡和泰国在个别年份属于美国数字经济权力区外，其余东南亚国家均属于中国数字经济权力区。

关键词: 数字经济权力, 时空格局, 竞争态势, 东南亚, 中国, 美国

Abstract:

The digital economy brings new dimensions of power, and gradually becomes a key force in changing the global competitive landscape. Because of the strategic significance in terms of geopolitical weight and digital economic potential, Southeast Asia has become a key region in digital power competition among great powers. Based on the power interdependence theory in international relations, this paper constructs the evaluation model of digital economic power, and estimates the spatio-temporal evolution and competitive situation of digital economic power between China and the US in Southeast Asia from 2009 to 2021. The results show that: ① The digital economic power between China and the US in Southeast Asia has been rising from 2009 to 2021. What's more, the digital economic power of China grew faster than that of the US, and digital economy power of China in Southeast Asia is larger than that of the US. ② The digital economic power of China in Southeast Asian countries has evolved in the way of mediate power influence zone. On the contrary, the digital economic power of the US in Southeast Asian countries has evolved in the way of low power influence zone. ③ The competitive situation of digital economic power between China and the US in Southeast Asia has presented with two types of the Sino-US digital economic power competition zone and the Chinese digital economic power zone. The competitive situation of digital economic power between China and the US in Southeast Asian countries has concentrated on Thailand and Malaysia. Except for Singapore and Thailand, in some years, they belong to the Sino-US digital economic power competition zone, and other Southeast Asian countries belong to the Chinese digital economic power zone.

Key words: digital economic power, spatio-temporal pattern, competitive situation, Southeast Asia, China, the US

熊琛然, 翟珊, 梁茂林, 孙莉霞, 周紫宣, 詹何宇璐. 中美在东南亚地区的数字经济权力时空格局及竞争态势[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(12): 48-60.

Chenran XIONG, Shan ZHAI, Maolin LIANG, Lixia SUN, Zixuan ZHOU, Heyulu ZHAN. The spatio-temporal pattern and competitive situation of digital economic power between China and the US in Southeast Asia[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(12): 48-60.

图/表 11

表1 A、C两国数字经济权力竞争空间类型划分（A、C国对i国）

Tab.1 Spatial type division of digital economic power between A and C(A and C countries against i country)

i国数字经济权力归属	A国数字经济权力区	C国数字经济权力区	A、C国数字经济权力竞争区
数字经济权力差异值	$D E P A, C → i t$ >50	$D E P A, C → i t$ <-50	-50≤ $D E P A, C → i t$ ≤50

表1 A、C两国数字经济权力竞争空间类型划分（A、C国对i国）

Tab.1 Spatial type division of digital economic power between A and C(A and C countries against i country)

i国数字经济权力归属	A国数字经济权力区	C国数字经济权力区	A、C国数字经济权力竞争区
数字经济权力差异值	$D E P A, C → i t$ >50	$D E P A, C → i t$ <-50	-50≤ $D E P A, C → i t$ ≤50

图1 2009—2021年中美在东南亚数字经济权力指数变化注：虚线代表线性曲线，K值表示斜率，K值越大，代表权力指数增幅越大。

Fig.1 The changes of digital economic power of China and the US in Southeast Asia， 2009-2021

表2 2009—2021年中美在东南亚数字经济权力区国家数量统计 (个)

Tab.2 The number of countries in the digital economic power zones of China and the US in Southeast Asia，2009-2021

年份	国家	权力低能区	权力中能区	权力高能区	权力极度区
2009	中国	0	8	1	1
2009	美国	7	3	0	0
2011	中国	0	6	2	2
2011	美国	7	3	0	0
2013	中国	0	6	2	2
2013	美国	7	3	0	0
2015	中国	0	8	1	1
2015	美国	6	4	0	0
2017	中国	0	6	3	1
2017	美国	6	4	0	0
2019	中国	0	6	3	1
2019	美国	6	4	0	0
2021	中国	0	5	5	0
2021	美国	5	5	0	0

图2 2009—2021年中美与东南亚国家数字经济贸易额注：数据来源于UNCTADstat （https：//unctadstat.unctad.org/）。

Fig.2 Trade of China and the US in digital economy with Southeast Asia， 2009-2021

图3 2009—2021年中国在东南亚数字经济权力区时空演化趋势注：该图基于自然资源部标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为 GS（2023）2752号的标准地图制作，研究期内无权力区国家对于中美两国均不存在，故图例中不标注。图5同。

Fig.3 Spatio-temporal evolution of digital economic power zones of China in Southeast Asia， 2009-2021

表3 2009—2021年中国在东南亚数字经济权力空间类型及分布国家

Tab.3 The number and distribution of different types of digital economic power zones of China in Southeast Asia，2009-2021

年份	权力中能区国家	权力高能区国家	权力极度区国家
2009	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南	老挝	缅甸
2011	文莱、老挝、印尼、新加坡、泰国、越南	马来西亚、菲律宾	柬埔寨、缅甸
2013	文莱、印尼、老挝、新加坡、泰国、越南	马来西亚、菲律宾	柬埔寨、缅甸
2015	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南	马来西亚	缅甸
2017	文莱、印尼、老挝、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国	柬埔寨、马来西亚、越南	缅甸
2019	文莱、印尼、老挝、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国	柬埔寨、马来西亚、越南	缅甸
2021	文莱、印尼、老挝、菲律宾、新加坡	柬埔寨、马来西亚、缅甸、泰国、越南	-

图4 2009—2021年中国对缅甸数字经济贸易额变化注：数据来源于UNCTADstat （https：//unctadstat.unctad.org/）。

Fig.4 China’s trade in digital economy with Myanmar， 2009-2021

图5 2009—2021年美国在东南亚数字经济权力区的时空演化趋势

Fig.5 Spatio-temporal evolution of digital economic power zones of the US in Southeast Asia，2009-2021

表4 2009—2021年美国在东南亚数字经济权力空间类型及分布国家

Tab.4 The distribution of different types of digital economic power zones of the US in Southeast Asia，2009-2021

年份	权力低能区分布国家	权力中能区分布国家
2009	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡、越南	马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国
2011	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡、越南	马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国
2013	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡、越南	马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国
2015	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡	马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南
2017	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡	马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南
2019	文莱、柬埔寨、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡	马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南
2021	文莱、印尼、老挝、缅甸、新加坡	柬埔寨、马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南

表5 2009—2021年中美在东南亚地区数字经济权力竞争态势

Tab.5 Power competition between China and the US in Southeast Asia based on the evaluation model of digital economic power， 2009-2021

国家	2009年	2011年	2013年	2015年	2017年	2019年	2021年
文莱	-50.18	-64.68	-86.09	-60.25	-76.56	-71.86	-78.66
柬埔寨	-96.30	-98.33	-93.96	-93.87	-96.33	-94.18	-54.75
印度尼西亚	-42.39	-60.34	-71.00	-67.01	-75.20	-81.82	-78.14
老挝	-98.39	-98.58	-99.88	-99.68	-69.85	-61.82	-77.35
马来西亚	-17.69	-50.48	-52.70	-32.11	-26.38	-41.51	-43.68
缅甸	-99.80	-99.95	-99.60	-99.61	-97.28	-97.09	-93.65
菲律宾	55.66	-55.19	-56.66	-60.99	-52.66	-57.07	-59.73
新加坡	52.45	51.08	-65.18	-72.64	-73.21	-76.45	-77.03
泰国	-40.87	-46.21	-26.50	-27.36	-25.74	-42.46	-38.53
越南	-60.38	-76.69	-75.50	-47.69	-63.84	-60.74	-56.35

表6 2015—2021年美国在东南亚及亚太地区计算机及电子产品领域投资

Tab.6 The US foreign direct investment in computers and electronic equipment to Southeast Asia and the Asian-Pacific region， 2015-2021

年份	对东南亚计算机及电子产品领域投资额/百万美元	对亚太地区计算机及电子产品领域投资额/百万美元	比重/%
2015	25 960	50 068	51.85
2016	12 155	38 172	31.84
2017	33 290	57 379	58.02
2018	19 659	47 967	40.98
2019	16 718	46 339	36.08
2020	18 503	50 375	36.73
2021	22 062	55 723	39.59

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