关键词: 东盟, 冲突管理, 先锋国, 威胁认知, 大国竞争性介入

Abstract:

ASEAN has adopted different management models for different regional conflicts. There are three modes of conflict management in ASEAN: silent management, normative advocacy management and power intervention management. The choice of conflict management modes in ASEAN is mainly influenced by two factors: the threat perception of vanguard states and the competitive intervention of great powers.When vanguard countries have weak awareness of the threat of conflict and the competitive involvement of major powers outside the region, ASEAN choose the silent management mode. When the threat perception of the vanguard ASEAN countries is strong and the competitive involvement of the major powers outside the region is weak, ASEAN tends to choose the normative and advocacy management model. When the vanguard countries of ASEAN have a strong threat perception and the competitive involvement of major powers outside the region, ASEAN choose the power intervention management mode. On the one hand, the exploration of this issue can enrich the theoretical research of ASEAN conflict management behavior, better analyze and master the model and law of ASEAN conflict management behavior, on the other hand, it helps to understand the laws of ASEAN in depth, so as to manage regional conflicts more effectively. Based on the above theoretical analysis, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the behavioral patterns of ASEAN's conflict management by taking the 1975 East Timor conflict, the 2008 Thailand- Cambodia conflict, and the 1978 Cambodia conflict as examples.

Key words: ASEAN, conflict management, vanguard state, threat perception, great power competitive intervention