考虑东北航线的亚欧LNG运输发展潜力研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.04.2019200

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

北极海冰的加速消融为北极航线的开发利用带来了机遇，北极地区的经济价值凸显。北极东北航线为亚欧间的LNG运输提供了新的运输通道。为使亚欧间的LNG运输更为经济合理，基于海运里程和单船必要运费率两方面比较通过北极东北航线、苏伊士运河航线、好望角航线进行跨亚欧LNG运输的经济性。在此基础上，采用负指数网络配流方法计算不同路径的配流比例，研究东北航线的亚欧间LNG运输发展潜力。结果表明，整体而言，采用东北航线进行跨亚欧LNG运输的海运里程更短，单船必要运费率更低，配流比例更高，其中，日本袖浦使用东北航线的经济性最为显著。将跨亚欧LNG运输通道的经济性分析和交通分配相结合，为亚洲地区更为经济合理地进行LNG运输提供参考。

关键词: 东北航线, LNG运输, 发展潜力, 必要运费率, 负指数网络配流

Abstract:

The accelerated ablation of Arctic sea ice brings opportunities for the utilization of Arctic routes. The Northern Sea Route provides a new transportation route for LNG transportation between Asia and Europe. In order to evaluate the economic advantage of the LNG transportation through the Northern Sea Route between Asia and Europe, this paper compares it with the trans-Asia-Europe LNG transportation through the Suez Canal route and the Cape of Good Hope route based on the shipping mileage and the required freight rate of a single ship. Based on this, the negative exponent network flow assignment is used to calculate the distribution ratio of different paths, and the development potential of LNG transportation between Asia and Europe. The results show that the overall mileage of the trans-Asia-Europe LNG transportation through the Northern Sea Route is shorter, ane the required freight rate is lower for a single ship, and the distribution ratio is higher, compared with the other two traditional routes. Among them, the economy of Japan's Sodegaura is most significant. This study may provide a reference for more rational LNG transport in Asia.

Key words: Northern Sea Route, LNG transportation, development potential, required freight rate, negative exponent network flow assignment

李振福, 陈卓, 韦博文. 考虑东北航线的亚欧LNG运输发展潜力研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(4): 686-696.

Zhenfu LI, Zhuo CHEN, Bowen WEI. Study on development potential of LNG transportation through the Northern Sea Route between Asia and Europe[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(4): 686-696.

图/表 8

参考文献 18

1	Zeeshan R, Halvor S. The commercial potential for LNG shipping between Europe and Asia via the Northern Sea Route, Journal of Maritime Research, 2014, 11(2)： 67-79.
2	北极天然气来了:中国首船亚马尔LNG运抵国内.中国石油企业,2018(07):8.
	Arctic natural gas came: China's first ship Yamal LNG arrived in China. China Petroleum Corporation, 2018(07): 8.
3	尚文琦.“东北航道”全年通航的影响.中国国情国力，2012(05):36-37.
	Shang W. The Influence of the "Northeast Waterway" Year-round Navigation. China National Conditions, 2012(05):36-37.
4	张侠,屠景芳,郭培清,等.北极航线的海运经济潜力评估及其对我国经济发展的战略意义.中国软科学,2009(S2):86-93.
	Zhang X, Tu J, Guo P, et al. The Economic Estimate of Arctic Sea Routes and Its Strategic Significance for the Development of Chinese Economy. China Soft Science, 2009 (S2): 86-93.
5	Liu Y Y, Zhao Q Q, Fan H M, Yao X. The Impacts of Arctic Passages Opening on China's International Shipping. ACSR-Advances in Computer Science Research, 2016, 40:150-154.
6	徐骅,尹志芳.北冰洋东北航道夏季集装箱航运经济性研究.世界地理研究,2013,22(03):10-17.
	Xu H, Yin Z. Cost evaluation of the summertime container shipping on the arctic northeast passage. World Regional Studies, 2013, 22(03):10-17.
7	Liu M J, Kronbak J. The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR)as an alternative route between Asia and Europe. Journal of Transport Geography, 2010, 18： 434-444.
8	Zhang Y R, Meng Q, Szu H N. Shipping efficiency comparison between Northern Sea Route and the conventional Asia-Europe shipping route via Suez Canal. Journal of Transport Geography, 2016, 57： 241-249.
9	王丹,张浩.基于负指数网络配流的东北航道发展潜力分析.国际经贸探索,2017,33(09):14-25.
	Wang D, Zhang H. Development Potential Analysis of Northeast Passage: Based on Negative Exponent Network Flow Assignment. International Economics and Trade Research, 2017, 33(09):14-25.
10	骆巧云,寿建敏.北极东北航道LNG运输经济性与前景分析.大连海事大学学报,2016,42(03):49-55.
	Luo Q, Shou J. Economic viability and prospects of LNG transportation through the Arctic Northeast passage.Journal of Dalian Maritime University,2016,42(03):49-55.
11	杨启生,赵丽丽,戴桂林.东北亚地区油气进口海运成本比较研究——以俄罗斯Yamal LNG为例.价格理论与实践,2017(04):140-143.
	Yang Q, Zhao L, Dai G. Comparative study on marine transportation cost for oil and gas import in northeast Asia——Illustrated by the case of Yamal LNG in Russia. Price，Theory & Practice, 2017(04): 140-143.
12	于淼,戴长雷,张晓红,等,亚马尔LNG项目能源运输通道可行性分析.水利科学与寒区工程,2018,1(04):26-30.
	Yu M, Dai C, Zhang X, et al. Feasibility analysis of energy transportation channel of Yamal LNG project. Hydro Science and Cold Zone Engineering, 2018, 1 (04): 26-30.
13	Michael S, Reinhard M. Impacts of an ice-free Northeast Passage on LNG markets and geopolitics, Energy Policy, 2018, 122： 438-448.
14	Shibasaki R, Usami T, Furuichi M, Teranishi H.How do the new shipping routes affect Asian liquefied natural gas markets and economy? Case of the Northern Sea Route and Panama Canal expansion, Maritime Policy & Management, 2018, 45(4)： 543-566.
15	吴娟,梁承姬.北极LNG运输航线的交通分配问题研究.华中师范大学学报：自然科学版,2017,51(03):364-369.
	Wu J, Liang C. Research on the traffic assignment of the Arctic LNG transport routes.Journal of Central China Normal University： Natural Science,2017,51(03):364-369.
16	Yamal LNG.Main Page>Project>Tankers.2017， .
17	Rokstad E.Email and telephone inteviews with the expert for Newbuilding and LNG group at RS Platou regarding the charter rates & fuel consumption for LNG vessels.2013.
18	Blue gold research.2018，.

海运里程差值	萨贝塔		哈默菲斯特		泽布吕赫		蒙特瓦尔		毕尔巴鄂
海运里程差值	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C
袖浦	8946.0	12755.2	6772.5	10590.4	4122.3	8135.1	3289.6	7225.4	2970.8	6957.6
上海	7400.9	11391.3	5160.0	9144.9	2606.6	6510.8	1737.7	5686.2	1398.8	5373.2
平泽	7784.7	11573.5	5637.0	9443.2	3053.3	6967.4	2183.8	6135.5	1830.3	5838.0
达赫	-2019.3	3202.5	-3938.2	1101.3	-6854.5	-2073.5	-7540.3	-2892.2	-7672.5	-2973.0
永安	6316.2	10141.0	4166.5	7963.9	1560.6	5523.3	729.9	4718.2	394.7	4402.2

海运里程差值	萨贝塔		哈默菲斯特		泽布吕赫		蒙特瓦尔		毕尔巴鄂
海运里程差值	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C
袖浦	8946.0	12755.2	6772.5	10590.4	4122.3	8135.1	3289.6	7225.4	2970.8	6957.6
上海	7400.9	11391.3	5160.0	9144.9	2606.6	6510.8	1737.7	5686.2	1398.8	5373.2
平泽	7784.7	11573.5	5637.0	9443.2	3053.3	6967.4	2183.8	6135.5	1830.3	5838.0
达赫	-2019.3	3202.5	-3938.2	1101.3	-6854.5	-2073.5	-7540.3	-2892.2	-7672.5	-2973.0
永安	6316.2	10141.0	4166.5	7963.9	1560.6	5523.3	729.9	4718.2	394.7	4402.2

序号	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
岗位	船长	大副	二副	三副	轮机长	大管轮	二管轮	电机员	三管轮
人数	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
年薪	123.6	102.0	51.6	36.0	118.8	102.0	48.0	48.0	36.0
序号	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	合计
岗位	水手长	机工长	水手	机工	电工	大厨	服务员	/
人数	1	1	5	3	1	1	1	22
年薪	27.6	27.6	24.0	24.0	30.0	26.4	15.6	841.2

序号	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
岗位	船长	大副	二副	三副	轮机长	大管轮	二管轮	电机员	三管轮
人数	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
年薪	123.6	102.0	51.6	36.0	118.8	102.0	48.0	48.0	36.0
序号	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	合计
岗位	水手长	机工长	水手	机工	电工	大厨	服务员	/
人数	1	1	5	3	1	1	1	22
年薪	27.6	27.6	24.0	24.0	30.0	26.4	15.6	841.2

	进口来源地
	萨贝塔		哈默菲斯特		泽布吕赫		蒙特瓦尔		毕尔巴鄂
	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C	A-B	A-C
袖浦	59.51	70.69	43.50	54.39	24.63	36.84	18.58	30.30	16.34	28.40
上海	48.30	60.71	31.93	43.93	13.81	25.35	7.61	19.45	5.25	17.26
平泽	50.95	62.02	35.27	46.10	16.79	28.37	10.58	22.42	8.13	20.35
达赫	-19.44	1.30	-32.59	-13.56	-53.41	-35.98	-58.42	-41.84	-59.26	-42.34
永安	40.65	52.00	25.10	35.92	6.50	18.44	0.56	12.69	-1.78	10.48