基于地缘政治学视角的缅甸内战与毒品经济相互关系解析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2020574

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国西南地区面临着因缅甸内战和毒品经济产生的跨国影响而形成的恶劣的地缘政治环境。通过文本分析法，本文聚焦缅甸内战和毒品经济，在分析缅甸内战历史和现实致因、缅甸毒品经济起源与发展的基础上，从地缘政治学视角，揭示了缅甸内战与毒品经济之间的相互关联。本文试图回答的问题是：缅甸内战状态下的毒品经济为何在缅甸蔓延？毒品经济又如何加深缅甸内战并阻碍内战的终结？缅甸内战与毒品经济相互纠缠，即缅甸内战不是由毒品经济利益所触发，但缅甸内战刺激了鸦片种植和催生了畸形的毒品经济，而毒品经济重塑了缅甸联邦政府与少数民族地方武装等各方利益，从而为缅甸内战解决蒙上了阴影。

关键词: 缅甸内战, 毒品经济, 地缘政治学, 中国西南地区

Abstract:

Myanmar is one of China's neighboring countries. Southwest China has faced with the bad geopolitical environment created by the Civil War and the transnational impact of the drug economy in Myanmar. Using text analysis, this article focuses on the civil war and the drug economy in Myanmar. Based on the analysis of the history and main causes of the long-term civil war, as well as the origin and development of the drug economy in Myanmar, the paper analyzes the relations between civil war and drug economy through the perspective of geopolitics. The research questions in the article are as follows: Why have drug economy spread in Myanmar under state of civil war? How does the drug economy influence the long-term civil war and hinder the end of the civil war in Myanmar? The study argues that civil war and drug economy in Myanmar are interacted. In other words, civil war results in and is attributed to opium poppy cultivation and drug economy in Myanmar, which reshapes the interests of the parties involved federal government and minority armies, making it difficult to resolve the civil war in Myanmar.

Key words: civil war in Myanmar, drug economy, geopolitics, Southwest China

闫晓燕, 武友德, 曹洪华. 基于地缘政治学视角的缅甸内战与毒品经济相互关系解析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 721-731.

Xiaoyan YAN, Youde WU, Honghua CAO. An analysis of the relationship between Myanmar's civil war and drug economy from the perspective of geopolitics[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 721-731.

图/表 7

图1 2010—2019年缅北武装冲突的趋势图

Fig.1 Conflict of battles in Northern Myanmar， 2010-2019

图2 1986—2017年缅甸鸦片种植规模与产量变化数据来源：UNODC

Fig.2 Opium poppy cultivation and production in Myanmar，1986-2017

表1 2018和2019年缅甸鸦片种植与产量情况

Tab.1 Regional distribution of opium poppy cultivation and production in Myanmar 2018 and 2019

地区	鸦片种植面积/公顷			干鸦片产量/吨
地区	2018年	2019年	2019年占比	2018年	2019年	2019年占比
掸邦	32700	28000	75%	461	442	87%
克钦邦	3400	3900	12%	42	48	9%
钦邦	630	630	2%	8.7	9.6	2%
克耶邦	570	570	1%	8.0	8.8	2%
缅甸	37300	33100	100%	520	508	100%

图3 2019年缅甸生产的鸦片终端市场份额数据来源：UNODC；生鸦片提纯为海洛因的比例大约为10：1

Fig.3 Estimated quantities of the different opiate market′s components in Myanmar

图4 掸邦民众种植鸦片的主要原因归类数据来源：UNODC

Fig.4 The most common reasons for cultivating opium poppy in Shan State

表2 缅族与主要少数民族地缘关系

Tab.2 Geopolitical relations between the Burma nationality and selected minority nationality in Myanmar

族群	地缘关系	经济贫困度	被缅化程度	政治地位	宗教歧视
掸族	压制	与缅族水平相等	中等	中等	无歧视
克钦族	冲突	低于缅族平均水平	较低	低	歧视
孟族	同化	低于缅族平均水平	高	中等	无歧视
克伦族	排斥	低于缅族水平	中等	低	歧视
若开族	压制	严重贫困	中等	中等	无歧视
罗兴亚人	激烈冲突	极端贫困	极低	无公民权	严重歧视

图5 缅甸毒品治理与地缘环境关系

Fig.5 Relations between anti-drug practices and geopolitical setting in Myanmar

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