双循环格局下中国关键有色金属资源贸易格局和竞争力分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.06.2021342

世界地理研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (6): 14-27.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.06.2021342

双循环格局下中国关键有色金属资源贸易格局和竞争力分析

徐美娟¹^,²(), 许礼刚¹^,²^,³(), 袁梦洁¹^,³

^1.江西理工大学，矿业发展研究中心，赣州 341000
^2.江西理工大学，应急管理与安全工程学院，赣州 341000
^3.江西理工大学，经济管理学院，赣州 341000

收稿日期:2021-05-21 修回日期:2021-08-15 出版日期:2023-06-19 发布日期:2023-08-07
通讯作者: 许礼刚
作者简介:徐美娟（1996—），女，硕士研究生，研究方向为矿产资源经济管理，E-mail：236829506@qq.com。
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFB1713700);江西省高校人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(JD20050);江西理工大学应急管理学院科研课题(202106);江西理工大学研究生创新专项资金项目(XS2020-S027)

Trade network and competitiveness of China's critical nonferrous metal resources under dual circulation pattern: A case study of cobalt

Meijuan XU¹^,²(), Ligang XU¹^,²^,³(), Mengjie YUAN¹^,³

^1.Mining Development Research Center, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
^2.School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China
^3.School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi University of Science and Technology, Ganzhou 341000, China

Received:2021-05-21 Revised:2021-08-15 Online:2023-06-19 Published:2023-08-07
Contact: Ligang XU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

关键有色金属作为战略性新兴产业发展的基础资源，可为各国抢占全球经济制高点、提升创新能力提供竞争砝码。为了探究关键有色金属资源产业链贸易格局，明确其在不同阶段的竞争优势，本文以钴为例，根据UNComtrade数据库中钴矿、钴氧化物、电解钴和钴酸锂的贸易数据，构建2002—2020年全球钴产业链各阶段典型产品贸易有向加权网络；使用贸易总额和市场集中度指数，分析全球钴产品贸易总体格局的演化趋势；从典型国家的竞争地位、贸易过程中的国家影响力、贸易渠道结构特征三维度分析中国与其他典型国家在全球钴产业链上的竞争力。结果发现：（1）发达国家（地区）更重视钴产业链下游产品；（2）钴整体贸易有逐渐回暖趋势，钴氧化物和钴酸锂依然是各国贸易的重点；（3）中国较依赖从刚果（金）进口钴矿和钴氧化物，可能面临钴矿和钴氧化物短缺风险，且中国钴产业竞争力仅次于美国；（4）美国、德国等国更重视贸易中介控制能力和出口结构分布。在此基础上，提出应重视供应端的多元化、构建全球钴产品贸易风险评估体系、加快产业链上下游延伸以及政府牵头缓解企业投资压力等建议，以适应内外部环境演变，提高中国在国际和国内市场上对关键有色金属产业链的掌控力。

关键词: 关键有色金属, 钴产业链, 贸易格局, 国际贸易网络, 产业集中度

Abstract:

Critical nonferrous metals are of strategic importance to the development of today's manufacturing industry, especially under sustainable circumstances. To explore the trade patterns of the critical nonferrous metal resource industry chain and analyze its competitive advantages at different stages, this paper takes cobalt as an example, constructs the directional weighted network of the trade of typical products at each stage of the global cobalt industry chain from 2002 to 2020 based on the trade data of cobalt, cobalt oxide, electrolytic cobalt and cobalt acid lithium, uses trade and market concentration index to analyze the evolution pattern of overall global cobalt products trade, analyzes the cobalt competitive situation of China among typical trading parties. The results show: (1) Developed countries or regions attach more importance to the downstream of the cobalt industry chain. (2) The overall trade volume of cobalt has been gradually increasing, cobalt oxide and lithium cobalt oxide still occupied the majority share of trade among countries. (3) China is more dependent on cobalt ore and cobalt oxide from the Democratic Republic of Congo, and may face a shortage of cobalt and cobalt oxide; the competitiveness of China's cobalt industry is second only to the United States. (4) The United States, Germany, and other countries pay more attention to the ability of betweenness centrality and the distribution of export structure. Accordingly, it is proposed to pay attention to the diversification of the supply side, build a global cobalt product trade risk assessment system, accelerate the upstream and downstream extension of the industry chain and take the lead in relieving the investment pressure of enterprises, to adapt to the internal and external environment evolution, to enhance the control of the critical nonferrous metals industry chain, both in the international and domestic market.

Key words: critical nonferrous metals, cobalt industry chain, trade patterns, international trade network, industrial concentration

徐美娟, 许礼刚, 袁梦洁. 双循环格局下中国关键有色金属资源贸易格局和竞争力分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(6): 14-27.

Meijuan XU, Ligang XU, Mengjie YUAN. Trade network and competitiveness of China's critical nonferrous metal resources under dual circulation pattern: A case study of cobalt[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(6): 14-27.

图/表 10

表1 市场集中度划分依据

Tab.1 Market concentration dividing basis

类型		划分依据
竞争型	分散竞争型	$C R i, t 8 ≤ 0.2$
竞争型	低集中竞争型	$0.2 < C R i, t 8 < 0.4$
寡占型	低集中寡占型	$0.4 ≤ C R i, t 8 < 0.7$
寡占型	极高寡占型	$0.7 ≤ C R i, t 8$

表1 市场集中度划分依据

Tab.1 Market concentration dividing basis

类型		划分依据
竞争型	分散竞争型	$C R i, t 8 ≤ 0.2$
竞争型	低集中竞争型	$0.2 < C R i, t 8 < 0.4$
寡占型	低集中寡占型	$0.4 ≤ C R i, t 8 < 0.7$
寡占型	极高寡占型	$0.7 ≤ C R i, t 8$

图1 2002—2020年4种典型钴产品贸易额演化趋势

Fig.1 Annual trade volume of four types of cobalt products，2002-2020

图2 2002—2020年4种典型钴产品市场集中度演化

Fig.2 Market concentration evolution of four types of cobalt products in 2002-2020

图3 2002—2020年全球四种典型钴产品贸易出口C8寡占演变

Fig.3 C8 oligopolistic countries and regions of four types of cobalt products export， 2002-2020

表2 2002—2020年全球钴矿贸易出口C8寡占国家和地区演化趋势

Tab.2 C8 oligopolistic countries and regions of global cobalt ore export，2002-2020

国家（地区）	年份
国家（地区）	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020
爱尔兰	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	4	6	6	5	5
澳大利亚	N/A	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
巴西	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
比利时	N/A	8	5	5	8	5	7	5	3	N/A
波兰	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
德国	N/A	5	N/A	7	6	N/A	3	7	2	N/A
法国	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8	N/A	N/A	N/A
刚果（金）	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	1	1	1
韩国	8	N/A	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8	N/A
荷兰	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	4	N/A	N/A
加拿大	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	2	N/A	N/A	N/A
津巴布韦	7	4	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
马来西亚	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
美国	3	2	3	1	2	6	5	N/A	7	3
摩洛哥	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
南非	2	1	1	4	4	1	1	3	6	8
泰国	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
乌干达	1	N/A	2	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
新喀里多尼亚	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	4	N/A	N/A	N/A
意大利	N/A	N/A	6	N/A	5	7	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
印度	N/A	N/A	N/A	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
印度尼西亚	6	7	7	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
英国	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	8	N/A	4
赞比亚	4	3	4	2	1	3	N/A	2	4	6
中国	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
中国香港	5	N/A	N/A	8	7	2	N/A	N/A	N/A	2

图4 钴矿主要出口国家和地区竞争力演化情况

Fig.4 Competitiveness evolution of main export countries and regions in cobalt ore

图5 钴氧化物主要出口国家和地区竞争力演化情况

Fig.5 Competitiveness evolution of main export countries and regions in cobalt oxide

图6 电解钴主要出口国家和地区竞争力演化情况

Fig.6 Competitiveness evolution of main export countries and regions in electrolytic cobalt

图7 钴酸锂主要出口国家和地区竞争力演化情况

Fig.7 Competitiveness evolution of main export countries and regions in cobalt acid lithium

图8 2019年钴全产业链不同阶段典型国家和地区出口竞争力比较

Fig.8 Export competitiveness of typical countries and regions in cobalt industrial chain in 2019

参考文献 24

1	张艳飞,陈其慎,于汶加,等.2015—2040年全球铁矿石供需趋势分析.资源科学,2015,37(5):921-932.
	ZHANG Y, CHEN Q, YU W, et al. Global iron ore supply and demand trend analysis,2015-2040. Resources Science,2015,37(5):921-932.
2	DEETMAN S, PAULIUK S, VUUREN D, et al. Scenarios for demand growth of metals in electricity generation technologies, cars, and electronic appliances. Environmental Science & Technology, 2018,52(8): 4950-4959.
3	CALVO G, VALERO A. Assessing maximum production peak and resource availability of non-fuel mineral resources: Analyzing the influence of extractable global resources. Resources Conservation & Recycling, 2017,125:208-217.
4	黄健柏, 孙芳, 宋益.清洁能源技术关键金属供应风险评估.资源科学,2020,42(8):1477-1488.
	HUANG J, SUN F, SONG Y. Supply risk assessment of critical metals in clean energy technology. Resources Science,2020,42(8):1477-1488.
5	ZHONG W, TAO D, WANG G, et al. Structure of international iron flow: Based on substance flow analysis and complex network. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2018, 136:345-354.
6	李华姣, 安海忠, 齐亚杰, 等.基于产业链国际贸易网络的中国优势矿产资源全球贸易格局和竞争力——以钨为例.资源科学, 2020, 42(8):1504-1514.
	LI H, AN H, QI Y, et al. Trade and competitiveness structure of China's advantageous mineral resources based on the international trade network of industrial chain: A case study of Tungsten. Resources Science,2020,42(8):1504-1514.
7	朱学红, 彭婷, 谌金宇.战略性关键金属贸易网络特征及其对产业结构升级的影响.资源科学, 2020, 42(8):1489-1503.
	ZHU X, PENG T, CHEN J. Impact of strategic and critical metals trade network characteristics on the upgrading of industrial structures. Resources Science,2020,42(8):1489-1503.
8	DONG D, GAO X, SUN X, et al. Factors affecting the formation of copper international trade community: Based on resource dependence and network theory. Resources Policy, 2018, 57: 167-185.
9	计启迪, 刘卫东, 陈伟, 等.基于产业链的全球铜贸易网络结构研究.地理科学, 2021, 41(1):44-54.
	JI Q, LIU W, CHEN W, et al. Structure of global copper-containing products trade network based on industrial chain perspective. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2021, 41(1): 44-54.
10	梁靓,代涛,王高尚.基于供需视角的中国矿产资源国际贸易格局分析.中国矿业, 2017, 26(9): 53-60.
	LIANG L, DAI T, WANG G. Analysis of China's international trade pattern of mineral resources based on the perspective of supply and demand. China Mining Magazine, 2017, 26(9): 53-60.
11	文博杰, 韩中奎.2015年中国钴物质流研究.中国矿业,2018,27(1):73-77.
	WEN B, HAN Z. Substance flow analysis of cobalt in China in 2015. China Mining Magazine, 2018, 27(1): 73-77.
12	VAN DEN BRINK S, KLEIJN R, SPRECHER B, et al. Identifying supply risks by mapping the cobalt supply chain. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2020, 156: 104743.
13	余慧, 丁颖辉.网络视角下全球钴中间产品贸易时空关联关系研究.中国矿业, 2021, 30(1): 40-47.
	YU H, DING Y. Study on the spatial and temporal correlation of global cobalt global intermediate products trade network. China Mining Magazine, 2021, 30(1): 40-47.
14	余韵, 杨建锋.中国战略性矿产地位和作用的变化——以钴为例.矿业研究与开发, 2020, 40(12): 177-183.
	YU Y, YANG J. Changes in the status and role of strategic minerals in China--A case study of cobalt. Mining Research and Development, 2020, 40(12): 177-183.
15	许明, 杨丹辉.中国稀有矿产资源产业的国际竞争力分析.东南学术, 2019(1): 111-122.
	XU M, YANG D. Analysis of China's international competitiveness of rare mineral resources industry. Southeast Academic Research, 2019(1):111-122.
16	马健诚, 梁工谦, 郭永.我国钼产品国际竞争力分析.国际贸易问题, 2008(9): 27-34.
	MA J, LIANG G, GUO Y. Analysis on the international competitiveness of Chinese molybdenum products. Journal of International Trade, 2008(9):27-34.
17	刘守英, 杨继东.中国产业升级的演进与政策选择——基于产品空间的视角.管理世界, 2019,35(6): 81-94.
	LIU S, YANG J. The evolution and the policy selection in China's industrial upgrading:Based on product space perspective. Management World, 2019, 35(6): 81-94.
18	陈立敏.国际竞争力就等于出口竞争力吗?——基于中国制造业的对比实证分析.世界经济研究, 2010(12): 11-17.
	CHEN L. Is international competitiveness equal to export competitiveness?--A parallel study based on China's manufacturings. World Economy Studies, 2010(12): 11-17.
19	KOOPMAN R, WANG Z, WEI S. How much of Chinese exports is really made in China? Assessing domestic value-added when processing trade is pervasive. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.
20	黄传峰, 储俊, 张炎治,等.基于复杂网络理论的竞争系统分析框架.科学学研究, 2010, 28(11): 1642-1648.
	HUANG C, CHU J, ZHANG Y, et al. An analysis frame of competition system based on complex network. Studies in Science of Science, 2010,28(11):1642-1648.
21	HAO X, AN H, SUN X, et al. The import competition relationship and intensity in the international iron ore trade: From network perspective. Resources Policy, 2018,57:45-54.
22	王东方, 陈伟强.中国铝土矿贸易与供应安全研究.资源科学, 2018, 40(3): 498-506.
	WANG D, CHEN W. Trade and supply security of bauxite in China. Resources Science,2018,40(3):498-506.
23	马佳卉, 贺灿飞.中间产品贸易网络结构及其演化的影响因素探究——基于贸易成本视角.地理科学进展, 2019, 38(10): 1607-1620.
	MA J, HE C. Structure and change of international trade network of intermediate goods: From the perspective of trade costs. Progress in Geography, 2019,38(10):1607-1620.
24	卢宜冠, 郝波, 孙凯,等.钴金属资源概况与资源利用情况分析.地质调查与研究, 2020, 43(1): 72-80.
	LU Y, HAO B, SUN K, et al. General situation of cobalt resource and its utilization analysis. Geological Survey and Research, 2020,43(1):72-80.

[1]	陶蕾, 宋周莺. RCEP自贸区的建立及其成员国间贸易格局演化[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(4): 800-813.
[2]	赵蕾, 王国梁, 吴樱, 韦素琼. “一带一路”背景下中国在南亚的贸易格局分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2019, 28(5): 44-53.

双循环格局下中国关键有色金属资源贸易格局和竞争力分析

Trade network and competitiveness of China's critical nonferrous metal resources under dual circulation pattern: A case study of cobalt

RichHTML

PDF

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

图/表 10

参考文献 24

相关文章 2

编辑推荐

Metrics