Abstract: Much research on the low-carbon city have weakness in systemically and dynamically estimating the low-carbon level of cites in various regions. This study attempts to fill this gap through establishing a comprehensive causal-effect framework analysis framework, which is the interaction of Driving forces-Pressures-State-Impacts- Responses (DPSIR) between human and the environment. The paper used the socioeconomic data, meteorological data, and carbon estimation data from bottom to top, and calculate the low-carbon development level to examine the low-carbon performance and its spatial differentiation. The results reveal that most of the 288 cities at prefecture level and above in China are at a relatively high carbon level. The low-carbon cities display a gradient distribution from the east, the middle to the west. And the low-carbon cities are clustered in Huhuanyong line, the southeast coastal urban agglomeration and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Low-carbon driving forces and low-carbon responses are important factors that determine the low-carbon development level of cities. The cities with higher level of low-carbon driving forces are mainly driven by R&D investment, socio-economic development, clean-energy development and/or urban compact development. The responses from low-carbon technology and low-carbon awareness are much more important to low-carbon city than that form low-carbon institution. Not all the low carbon pilot city have low-carbon performance. Cities with various low-carbon levels should select a local low-carbon development path based on the structural DPSIR inventories.