基于改进突变级数法的河北省养老地产开发适宜性评价与障碍因子诊断

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2020.02.2018363

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前我国已存在的养老地产项目多数处于亏损状态，运营存在众多问题。基于现有问题，从养老地产的开发选址角度出发，对城市在养老地产开发初期的适宜性进行评估。建立包括人口因子、生活舒适度、居民消费能力、房地产市场成熟度和服务业发展程度五个维度的养老地产开发适宜性评价指标体系，并收集了2012—2016年河北省11个地级市的指标数据，运用基于组合赋权法的改进突变级数模型对11个城市的养老地产开发适宜性进行了评价。同时利用改进的障碍因子诊断模型对影响各城市养老地产开发适宜性的主要障碍因子进行诊断。通过分析得出主要

结论

河北省养老地产开发适宜水平在2012年到2016年间整体有所提升，但提升幅度不大；根据评价结果，将11个城市划分为较高水平的养老地产重点发展城市、中间水平的养老地产潜力发展城市和较低水平的发展欠佳城市三类；三类城市养老地产开发适宜性的变化趋势不同，影响各城市养老地产开发适宜性水平的障碍因素表现出明显的差异。最后针对研究结果，提出提升河北省城市养老地产开发适宜性水平的对策建议。

关键词: 养老地产, 适宜性评价, 改进突变级数法, 障碍因子模型, 河北省

Abstract:

Most of the existing projects of pension real estate in China are in the state of loss, and there are many problems in operation. Based on these existing problems, from the perspective of site selection of pension real estate, this paper evaluated the development suitability of the pension real estate in the initial stage of development. This paper established the suitability evaluation indicator system of urban pension real estate development that included the five aspects of population factor, the comfort index of life, the degree of residents' consumption level, the maturity of real estate market and the degree of development of service industry. The indicator data of 11 cities in the Hebei province from 2012 to 2016 were collected to evaluate the suitability of pension real estate development by using improved catastrophe progression model which based on combination weighting. At the same time, the improved obstacle factor diagnosis model was used to diagnose the main obstacle factors that affect the suitability of pension real estate development in various cities. Through the analysis, the main conclusions are drawn: the level of suitability of pension real estate development in the Hebei province improved in the whole from 2012 to 2016, but the increase was not significant; according to the results of the evaluation, 11 cities can be divided into three categories: the prioritized developmental cities, the potential cities and the unsuitable cities. The changing trend of the suitability of the three categories of urban pension real estate development is different, and the obstacle factors affecting the level of suitability of the development of pension real estate in each city show obvious differences. Finally, according to the research results, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to improve the level of suitability of pension real estate development in the Hebei province.

Key words: pension real estate, suitability evaluation, improved catastrophe progression model, obstacle indicators model, Hebei Province

李素红, 方洁, 尹志军, 苗静谦. 基于改进突变级数法的河北省养老地产开发适宜性评价与障碍因子诊断[J]. 世界地理研究, 2020, 29(2): 378-387.

Suhong LI, Jie FANG, Zhijun YIN, Jingqian MIAO. Suitability of pension real estate development and obstacle indicators diagnosis in Hebei Province based on improved catastrophe progression[J]. World Regional Studies, 2020, 29(2): 378-387.

图/表 8

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年份	年末总人口 /万人	0~14岁人口比重/%	15~64岁人口比重/%	65岁及以上人口比重/%	老年抚养比/%
2012	7287.51	17.46	73.86	8.68	12.46
2013	7332.61	17.95	72.96	9.09	12.55
2014	7383.75	17.80	73.03	9.17	12.94
2015	7424.92	17.63	72.18	10.19	14.21
2016	7470.05	18.72	70.59	10.69	15.44

年份	年末总人口 /万人	0~14岁人口比重/%	15~64岁人口比重/%	65岁及以上人口比重/%	老年抚养比/%
2012	7287.51	17.46	73.86	8.68	12.46
2013	7332.61	17.95	72.96	9.09	12.55
2014	7383.75	17.80	73.03	9.17	12.94
2015	7424.92	17.63	72.18	10.19	14.21
2016	7470.05	18.72	70.59	10.69	15.44

一级指标	权重	二级指标	指标类型	权重
人口因子	0.048	人口老龄化率/%	收益型	0.018
		户均人口数/人	成本型	0.011
		城镇化率/%	收益型	0.019
生活舒适度	0.628	AQI好于等于二级的天数/天	收益型	0.194
		人均占有公园绿地面积/m²	收益型	0.098
		一般工业固废综合利用率/%	收益型	0.153
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	收益型	0.044
		每万人拥有公交车数/辆	收益型	0.140
居民消费能力	0.201	恩格尔系数/%	成本型	0.008
		人均地区生产总值/元	收益型	0.139
		城镇登记失业率/%	成本型	0.056
房地产市场成熟度	0.063	城镇居民人均住房面积/m²	收益型	0.017
房地产市场成熟度	0.063	房价收入比	成本型	0.046
服务业发展程度	0.059	第三产业占总产值比重/%	收益型	0.030
服务业发展程度	0.059	每万人拥有医院床位数/张	收益型	0.032

一级指标	权重	二级指标	指标类型	权重
人口因子	0.048	人口老龄化率/%	收益型	0.018
		户均人口数/人	成本型	0.011
		城镇化率/%	收益型	0.019
生活舒适度	0.628	AQI好于等于二级的天数/天	收益型	0.194
		人均占有公园绿地面积/m²	收益型	0.098
		一般工业固废综合利用率/%	收益型	0.153
		生活垃圾无害化处理率/%	收益型	0.044
		每万人拥有公交车数/辆	收益型	0.140
居民消费能力	0.201	恩格尔系数/%	成本型	0.008
		人均地区生产总值/元	收益型	0.139
		城镇登记失业率/%	成本型	0.056
房地产市场成熟度	0.063	城镇居民人均住房面积/m²	收益型	0.017
房地产市场成熟度	0.063	房价收入比	成本型	0.046
服务业发展程度	0.059	第三产业占总产值比重/%	收益型	0.030
服务业发展程度	0.059	每万人拥有医院床位数/张	收益型	0.032

年份	石家庄	承德	张家口	秦皇岛	唐山	廊坊	保定	沧州	衡水	邢台	邯郸
2012	0.740	0.523	0.732	0.946	0.539	0.865	0.812	0.884	0.510	0.702	0.751
2013	0.753	0.506	0.775	0.919	0.826	0.712	0.599	0.926	0.545	0.665	0.943
2014	0.912	0.452	0.909	0.964	0.768	0.491	0.443	0.912	0.470	0.687	0.714
2015	0.821	0.593	0.912	0.910	0.683	0.701	0.501	0.922	0.467	0.683	0.513
2016	0.937	0.369	0.890	0.949	0.686	0.806	0.649	0.922	0.319	0.558	0.810