2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2019549

世界地理研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (4): 813-825.DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2021.04.2019549

2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析

侯婉¹^,²^,³^,⁴^,⁵(), 侯西勇¹^,⁴^,⁵(), 孙敏¹^,⁴^,⁵, 宋百媛¹^,³^,⁴^,⁵

^1.中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所，山东烟台 264003
^2.安徽师范大学地理与旅游学院，安徽芜湖 241002
^3.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
^4.中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室，山东烟台 264003
^5.中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心，山东青岛 266071

收稿日期:2019-10-31 修回日期:2020-01-31 出版日期:2021-07-30 发布日期:2021-08-06
通讯作者: 侯西勇
作者简介:侯婉（1991-），女，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化等，E-mail：whou@ahnu.edu.cn。
基金资助:
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目(XDA19060205);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(31461143032)

Land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and their driving forces from 2000 to 2010

Wan HOU¹^,²^,³^,⁴^,⁵(), Xiyong HOU¹^,⁴^,⁵(), Min SUN¹^,⁴^,⁵, Baiyuan SONG¹^,³^,⁴^,⁵

^1.Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China
^2.School of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241002, China
^3.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
^4.Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China
^5.Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao 266071, China

Received:2019-10-31 Revised:2020-01-31 Online:2021-07-30 Published:2021-08-06
Contact: Xiyong HOU

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

土地利用/覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要问题，而海岸带则是该领域研究的热点区域。以三套土地利用/覆盖数据（MCD12Q1、CCI-LC和GlobeLand30）为基础，采用基于一致性分析和模糊集合理论的数据融合方法，获取2000年和2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖分类信息，进而分析土地利用/覆盖变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明：十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化方式主要以耕地萎缩和林地扩张为主，其次是湿地扩张，再次是草地和裸地萎缩，最后是灌木地和人造地表扩张；土地利用/覆盖类型之间的相互转换面积较小，仅占研究区总面积的4.22%，其中分布面积占优势的变化类型为耕地–林地–草地相互转换、灌木地–裸地相互转换、林地转为湿地以及林地转为灌木地等。地形因素、气候分异等自然驱动力深刻影响着土地利用/覆盖变化的宏观格局，而人口压力增大、经济高速发展、政策的颁布与实施等人文驱动力则是推动十年间亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化的主要原因。

关键词: 土地利用/覆盖变化, 驱动力分析, 多源数据融合, 亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带

Abstract:

Land use/land cover change is an important issue in the study of global change, and the coastal area is a hot spot region in this field. In this paper, three land use/land cover datasets (MCD12Q1, CCI-LC and GlobeLand30) were used as the research object and a fusion method based on agreement analysis and fuzzy-set theory was adopted to obtain the classification information of land use/land cover along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia in 2000 and 2010. Then, the variation characteristics and driving factors of land use/land cover were analyzed. Main findings are as follows: land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia from 2000 to 2010 was shown that, cropland shrinkage and forest expansion ranked top one, followed by wetland expansion, next were grassland and bare land shrinkage, and lastly shrubland and artificial surfaces expansion. The area of interconversion between land use/land cover types was small, accounting for only 4.22% of the total area of the study area; thereinto, the dominant variation types were the interconversion of cropland, forest and grassland, the interconversion of shrubland and bare land, forest that turned into wetland and forest that turned into shrubland. The regional characteristics of land use/land cover change in various subregions along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia were different from each other, and the reasons were mainly related to the vegetation types, soil properties, topography, climatic conditions, social conditions and economic levels of each subregion. Although natural driving forces such as terrain, climate, and so on profoundly affected the macro pattern of land use/land cover change, humanistic driving forces such as population growth, economy development, and policy implementation were the direct causes of land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia from 2000 to 2010. Overall, this paper fills the gap in the study of land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia, and provides information and suggestions for scientific research on man-earth relationship, land resource management, ecological environmental protection and coordinated economic development along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia.

Key words: land use/land cover change, analysis of driving force, multi-source data fusion, low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia

侯婉, 侯西勇, 孙敏, 宋百媛. 2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析[J]. 世界地理研究, 2021, 30(4): 813-825.

Wan HOU, Xiyong HOU, Min SUN, Baiyuan SONG. Land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and their driving forces from 2000 to 2010[J]. World Regional Studies, 2021, 30(4): 813-825.

图/表 7

图1 研究区地理位置、范围及分区注：所有地图基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2016）2948号的地图制作，底图无修改。

Fig.1 The location， extent and subregions of the study area

图2 2000年和2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖基本格局

Fig.2 Land use/land cover along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia in 2000 and 2010

表1 2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带及各子区域土地利用/覆盖变化度量指标

Tab.1 Indicators of land use/land cover change in the low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and in each of the five subregions from 2000 to 2010

区域	指标	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
EuAs （ $D$ =0.0394）	$∆ S i$	-36772.92	25190.64	-6244.56	5461.11	15784.56	1824.75	-5230.44	-13.14
	$K i$	-0.1654	0.0922	-0.3344	0.3919	0.0263	0.1544	-0.0612	-7.2277
	$D i$	0.0300	0.0206	0.0051	0.0045	0.0129	0.0015	0.0043	0.0000
EAs （ $D$ =0.0432）	$∆ S i$	-4176.81	6353.10	-6045.03	-386.64	2419.56	1541.88	293.40	0.54
	$K i$	-0.0925	0.1004	-2.5456	-3.7140	0.0187	0.2986	26.8977	60.0000
	$D i$	0.0170	0.0259	0.0246	0.0016	0.0099	0.0063	0.0012	0.0000
SEA （ $D$ =0.0580）	$∆ S i$	-26251.47	22197.06	-6265.98	-815.49	11461.14	-253.17	-72.00	-0.09
	$K i$	-0.3273	0.1387	-1.6907	-5.4108	0.0342	-0.1367	-2.8041	-10.0000
	$D i$	0.0452	0.0382	0.0108	0.0014	0.0197	0.0004	0.0001	0.0000
SAs （ $D$ =0.1073）	$∆ S i$	2873.34	-1205.64	2587.68	5600.43	2326.05	-75.15	-12106.71	0.00
	$K i$	0.0686	-0.0725	1.3306	8.8591	0.0418	-0.0980	-1.6701	0.0000
	$D i$	0.0230	0.0097	0.0207	0.0449	0.0186	0.0006	0.0970	0.0000
WAs （ $D$ =0.0659）	$∆ S i$	-4408.74	-934.38	3855.78	-4529.88	-543.51	8.64	6552.09	0.00
	$K i$	-0.3144	-0.1809	0.6079	-0.6885	-0.0116	0.0066	0.0842	0.0000
	$D i$	0.0279	0.0059	0.0244	0.0287	0.0034	0.0001	0.0415	0.0000
SEu （ $D$ =0.0552）	$∆ S i$	-4809.24	-1219.50	-377.01	5592.69	121.32	602.55	102.78	-13.59
	$K i$	-0.1171	-0.0433	-0.0876	0.8646	0.0036	0.2207	0.2942	0.0000
	$D i$	0.0413	0.0105	0.0032	0.0481	0.0010	0.0052	0.0009	0.0001

表1 2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带及各子区域土地利用/覆盖变化度量指标

Tab.1 Indicators of land use/land cover change in the low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and in each of the five subregions from 2000 to 2010

区域	指标	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
EuAs （ $D$ =0.0394）	$∆ S i$	-36772.92	25190.64	-6244.56	5461.11	15784.56	1824.75	-5230.44	-13.14
	$K i$	-0.1654	0.0922	-0.3344	0.3919	0.0263	0.1544	-0.0612	-7.2277
	$D i$	0.0300	0.0206	0.0051	0.0045	0.0129	0.0015	0.0043	0.0000
EAs （ $D$ =0.0432）	$∆ S i$	-4176.81	6353.10	-6045.03	-386.64	2419.56	1541.88	293.40	0.54
	$K i$	-0.0925	0.1004	-2.5456	-3.7140	0.0187	0.2986	26.8977	60.0000
	$D i$	0.0170	0.0259	0.0246	0.0016	0.0099	0.0063	0.0012	0.0000
SEA （ $D$ =0.0580）	$∆ S i$	-26251.47	22197.06	-6265.98	-815.49	11461.14	-253.17	-72.00	-0.09
	$K i$	-0.3273	0.1387	-1.6907	-5.4108	0.0342	-0.1367	-2.8041	-10.0000
	$D i$	0.0452	0.0382	0.0108	0.0014	0.0197	0.0004	0.0001	0.0000
SAs （ $D$ =0.1073）	$∆ S i$	2873.34	-1205.64	2587.68	5600.43	2326.05	-75.15	-12106.71	0.00
	$K i$	0.0686	-0.0725	1.3306	8.8591	0.0418	-0.0980	-1.6701	0.0000
	$D i$	0.0230	0.0097	0.0207	0.0449	0.0186	0.0006	0.0970	0.0000
WAs （ $D$ =0.0659）	$∆ S i$	-4408.74	-934.38	3855.78	-4529.88	-543.51	8.64	6552.09	0.00
	$K i$	-0.3144	-0.1809	0.6079	-0.6885	-0.0116	0.0066	0.0842	0.0000
	$D i$	0.0279	0.0059	0.0244	0.0287	0.0034	0.0001	0.0415	0.0000
SEu （ $D$ =0.0552）	$∆ S i$	-4809.24	-1219.50	-377.01	5592.69	121.32	602.55	102.78	-13.59
	$K i$	-0.1171	-0.0433	-0.0876	0.8646	0.0036	0.2207	0.2942	0.0000
	$D i$	0.0413	0.0105	0.0032	0.0481	0.0010	0.0052	0.0009	0.0001

表2 2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带及各子区域土地利用/覆盖类型转移度量指标

Tab.2 Indicators of land use/land cover transfer in the low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and in each of the five subregions from 2000 to 2010

前10 变化类型	EuAs		EAs		SEA		SAs		WAs		SEu
前10 变化类型	变化类型	面积 /km²	变化类型	面积/km²	变化类型	面积 /km²	变化类型	面积/km²	变化类型	面积/km²	变化类型	面积/km²
1	1→2	154436.31	1→2	18062.82	1→2	107257.05	2→1	7688.70	4→7	11943.72	1→2	19460.07
2	2→1	118484.01	2→1	12674.79	2→1	82695.51	1→2	7198.29	2→3	7392.60	2→1	13785.75
3	3→1	30908.88	3→1	8327.70	2→5	11473.29	7→4	6553.53	7→4	7027.83	2→4	11947.59
4	1→3	25056.36	1→3	4825.71	3→2	7662.96	7→3	3742.20	3→2	6195.06	3→1	9398.97
5	3→2	20771.91	1→6	3634.02	1→5	5305.41	3→1	3629.61	1→3	5680.62	1→3	8260.92
6	2→3	16920.00	1→5	2471.67	3→1	4560.03	1→3	2675.16	3→1	4992.57	4→2	4853.97
7	2→5	13826.70	3→2	2419.11	5→2	4335.84	1→5	2024.01	4→3	3549.51	4→1	4611.33
8	7→4	13681.08	6→1	2218.14	1→3	3613.95	4→1	1617.39	1→4	3279.15	1→4	4300.74
9	2→4	13127.76	3→5	1889.10	2→3	3293.64	5→1	1280.34	1→2	2458.08	3→2	3918.69
10	4→7	12254.22	2→3	1661.40	5→1	2184.39	7→1	1240.20	1→7	2017.08	2→3	3647.34
A	419467.23		58184.46		232382.07		37649.43		54536.22		84185.37
B	81.08		89.22		97.66		82.35		80.61		83.52
C	3.42		2.37		4.00		3.02		3.45		7.23

表3 土地利用/覆盖变化与地形因素(海拔高度)的空间分析结果

Tab.3 Results of spatial analysis between land use/land cover change and terrain factor

百分比	海拔高度/m	1→	2→	3→	4→	5→	6→	7→	8→
各类型面积转出量占各自转出总量的百分比/%	< 0	7.17	6.83	9.95	7.62	43.45	18.18	5.15	0.00
	0~200	63.46	68.81	50.96	28.54	53.29	68.32	49.56	1.25
	200~500	17.61	13.03	17.19	20.75	1.52	8.64	24.76	32.50
	500~1000	9.63	8.50	14.19	30.68	1.44	4.01	14.62	23.12
	> 1000	2.13	2.83	7.71	12.41	0.30	0.85	5.91	43.13
各类型面积转入量占各自转入总量的百分比/%	< 0	6.56	6.43	9.19	4.74	34.34	16.57	8.61	0.00
	0~200	71.16	62.38	40.29	41.11	63.30	71.57	31.00	50.00
	200~500	12.08	18.14	22.05	27.80	1.01	7.86	17.58	7.14
	500~1000	8.02	10.36	18.66	18.05	1.12	3.41	32.14	28.57
	> 1000	2.18	2.69	9.81	8.30	0.23	0.59	10.67	14.29

表4 土地利用/覆盖变化与气候分异(气候类型)的空间分析结果

Tab.4 Results of spatial analysis between land use/land cover change and climate factor

气候分异	各类型面积转出量占各自转出总量的百分比/%								各类型面积转入量占各自转入总量的百分比/%
气候分异	1→	2→	3→	4→	5→	6→	7→	8→	→1	→2	→3	→4	→5	→6	→7	→8
Ⅰ	22.46	24.73	45.90	50.90	14.95	45.74	6.13	98.74	22.88	20.30	56.77	57.53	8.19	44.34	10.76	50.00
Ⅱ	1.39	0.04	1.75	36.83	7.31	4.37	42.37	0.00	0.77	0.03	4.58	20.82	1.49	3.15	83.91	0.00
Ⅲ	11.08	12.84	15.97	9.07	24.56	8.44	51.20	0.00	16.59	8.99	17.37	20.67	27.12	7.51	3.23	0.00
Ⅳ	51.00	52.65	14.61	1.08	32.11	10.42	0.10	0.63	45.19	58.79	8.05	0.12	44.94	5.51	0.19	0.00
Ⅴ	7.50	6.79	8.87	2.07	12.57	23.04	0.08	0.00	8.33	7.53	4.20	0.84	10.76	22.14	0.14	0.00
Ⅵ	6.57	2.95	12.90	0.05	8.50	7.99	0.12	0.63	6.24	4.36	9.03	0.02	7.50	17.35	1.77	50.00

图3 2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度国家人口及GDP趋势注：人口和GDP数据源自https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/；梵蒂冈数据缺失。

Fig.3 Variation of population and gross domestic product in countries along low-middle latitude of Eurasia from 2000 to 2010

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2000—2010年亚欧大陆中低纬度海岸带土地利用/覆盖变化及驱动力分析

Land use/land cover change along low-middle latitude coastal areas of Eurasia and their driving forces from 2000 to 2010

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