我国非洲猪瘟疫情时空变化及其传播风险

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.02.2021047

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

非洲猪瘟（African swine fever，ASF）是一种不感染人的针对猪的强传染病，对养猪业有着致命打击，研究ASF的时空变化特征及其传播风险分析，便于ASF的预防和控制。从地理学的视角，在对我国ASF疫情时空变化及传播方向分析的基础上，利用最大熵模型对ASF疫情传播风险进行研究。结果表明：我国ASF疫情呈现先增长后快速减少并趋于平稳的趋势，暴发疫情最多的是西南、东北地区，最为集聚的区域为东北地区，传播方向呈现东北方向向东部、南部方向，西南方向向西北方向传播的特征；影响ASF发病的主要因素有公路、河流、人口、养殖密度和第一产业GDP，据此构建ASF疫情风险传播模型，预测出高风险区主要聚集在东北、西南和东南地区。在上述分析基础上，提出了ASF疫情防控的措施建议。

关键词: 非洲猪瘟, 时空变化, 传播风险

Abstract:

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a strong infectious disease against pigs that does not infect humans and has a fatal impact on the pig industry. It is convenient to prevent and control ASF by studying the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of ASF and carrying out transmission risk analysis. From the perspective of geography, based on the analysis of the spatiotemporal variation and transmission direction of ASF epidemic in China, the maximum entropy model was used to study the transmission risk of ASF epidemic in China.The results showed that the prevalence of ASF in China increased at first and then decreased rapidly and tended to be stable. The largest number of ASF outbreaks occurred in southwest and northeast China, and the most concentrated region was northeast China. The direction of ASF transmission was northeast to east and south, and southwest to northwest.The main factors affecting the incidence of ASF are roads, rivers, population, breeding density and GDP of the primary industry. Based on this, the risk transmission model of ASF epidemic was constructed, and it was predicted that the high risk areas were mainly concentrated in the northeast, southwest and southeast regions.On the basis of the above analysis, the measures for ASF epidemic prevention and control were put forward.Key words: African swine fever; spatio-temporal variation; transmission risk

刘海, 安泽禹, 黄跃飞, 贾鹏, 朱运海. 我国非洲猪瘟疫情时空变化及其传播风险[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(2): 410-417.

Hai LIU, Zeyu AN, Yuefei HUANG, Peng JIA, Yunhai ZHU. Spatio-temporal variation of African swine fever epidemic and its transmission risk in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(2): 410-417.

图/表 7

图1 我国各月ASF疫情统计折线图

Fig.1 Line chart of ASF epidemic statistics in China every month

图2 我国ASF疫情各市分级图注：基于国家测绘地理信息局标准地图服务网站下载的审图号为GS（2020）4624号的标准地图制作，底图边界无修改，下同。

Fig.2 ASF epidemic classification map of Chinese provinces

图3 我国ASF疫情聚类分析图

Fig.3 Cluster analysis chart of ASF epidemic situation in China

图4 中国ASF疫情传播方向分析图

Fig.4 Analysis chart of ASF epidemic transmission direction in China

表1 OLS参数估计结果

Tab.1 OLS parameter estimation result

自变量	回归系数	P
河流	0.286 730	0.000 000
公路	-0.087 386	0.006 589
铁路	-0.000 054	0.988 717
人口密度	-0.000 295	0.000 010
养殖密度	0.002 899	0.000 000
第一产业GDP	-0.000 042	0.001 686

图5 我国ASF疫情风险预测分布

Fig.5 Risk forecast distribution of ASF epidemic in China

图6 我国ASF疫情分布预测精度

Fig.6 Accuracy of ASF epidemic distribution prediction in China

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