基于事件数据分析法的两岸关系测度及影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2022.03.2020714

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

海峡两岸同根同源，发展两岸关系、推进祖国统一是实现中华民族伟大复兴的必然要求。从政治互动、经贸往来和文旅交流3个维度构建两岸关系综合评价指标体系，利用事件数据分析法和熵值法，对2000—2018年的两岸关系进行定量测度、演化阶段划分及影响因素分析，进而对两岸关系的良性发展提出建议。结果表明：①21世纪以来，两岸关系经历了低谷波动期（2000年1月—2008年5月）、全面发展期（2008年6月—2016年5月）和冷却回落期（2016年6月—2018年12月），呈现整体周期性、局部突变性的演化特征；②两岸关系主要受区域地缘环境、大陆综合实力、台湾政党轮替以及非传统安全因素等4个方面的影响；③大陆应当持续优化两岸关系地缘环境、继续提升综合实力、推进两岸社会融合以及建立防范非传统安全风险的机制。

关键词: 事件数据分析, 两岸关系, 定量测度, 演变机理, 中国台湾

Abstract:

Chinese Taiwan and Chinese mainland have the same race and culture. Promoting the integration of the two sides and the process of reunification across the Taiwan straits is an inevitable requirement to realize the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This paper constructed the comprehensive index evaluation system of cross-strait relations from three dimensions, including the official interaction, economic and trade exchanges and cultural and tourism exchanges. Using event data analysis method and entropy method, this paper conducted the quantitative index measurement, evolution stage division and influencing factors analysis of cross-strait relations from 2000 to 2018, and then put forward suggestions for the development of cross-strait relations. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Since the 21st century, cross-strait relations have experienced a period of low fluctuation (2000.1-2008.5), a period of comprehensive development (2008.6-2016.5) and a cooling down period (2016.6-2018.12); (2) Cross-strait relations have been mainly affected by the geographical environment, the comprehensive strength of Chinese mainland, the political party rotation of Taiwan, and non-traditional security factors; (3) Chinese mainland should continue to improve the geographical environment of cross-strait relations, enhance its comprehensive strength, promote social integration across the Taiwan strait, and establish mechanisms to prevent non-traditional security incidents.

Key words: event data analysis, cross-strait relations, quantitative measurement, evolution mechanism, Taiwan, China

李祺祥, 游小珺, 韦素琼. 基于事件数据分析法的两岸关系测度及影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2022, 31(3): 514-526.

Qixiang LI, Xiaojun YOU, Suqiong WEI. Study on the measurement and influencing factors of cross-strait relations——Based on event data analysis[J]. World Regional Studies, 2022, 31(3): 514-526.

图/表 6

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一级指标/权重	二级指标/权重	三级指标/权重
A 政治互动/53.49%	A1 官方互动/15.68%	A1.1 两岸高层交流/3.29%
		A1.2 两岸执政党交流/2.29%
		A1.3 两岸地方政府交流/3.86%
		A1.4 两岸司法、警务合作/0.89%
		A1.5 两岸军事合作/0.47%
		A1.6 两岸涉外事务合作/1.85%
		A1.7 国台办/“陆委会”等机构的发言/1.45%
		A1.8 两岸在突发灾难事件中的合作/1.60%
	A2 官方政策/24.38%	A2.1 两岸政治协商/0.00%
		A2.2 两岸经贸谈判/8.69%
		A2.3 海协会、海基会签订协议/8.36%
		A2.4 两岸相关立法/1.05%
		A2.5 两岸行政机构政策/2.58%
		A2.6 两岸直接通邮、通商与通航/3.70%
	A3 非官方互/13.43%	A3.1 中国共产党与台湾在野党交流/5.50%
		A3.2海协会与海基会交流/4.81%
		A3.3 建立非官方的对话、交流平台/2.57%
		A3.4 美、日等国对台湾问题的干涉/0.55%
B 经贸往来/26.27%	B1 两岸贸易/5.71%	B1.1 两岸经贸互动事件/1.69%
		B1.2 台湾对大陆出口贸易额/1.78%
		B1.3 大陆对台湾出口贸易额/2.24%
	B2 两岸投资/20.56%	B2.1 两岸金融合作事件/9.50%
		B2.2 大陆实际利用台商直接投资额/1.97%
		B2.3 大陆对台湾直接投资净额/6.30%
		B2.4 大陆对台湾承包工程完成营业额/2.79%
C 文旅交流/20.24%	C1 文化交流/7.44%	C1.1 两岸媒体互动事件/0.48%
		C1.2 两岸文化、学术交流活动/3.25%
		C1.3 从台湾引进图书版权总数/1.93%
		C1.4 向台湾输出图书版权总数/1.78%
	C2 旅游交流/12.80%	C2.1 台湾同胞入境游客数/1.25%
		C2.2 两岸直航航线数/5.81%
		C2.3 两岸直航乘客数/5.74%

一级指标/权重	二级指标/权重	三级指标/权重
A 政治互动/53.49%	A1 官方互动/15.68%	A1.1 两岸高层交流/3.29%
		A1.2 两岸执政党交流/2.29%
		A1.3 两岸地方政府交流/3.86%
		A1.4 两岸司法、警务合作/0.89%
		A1.5 两岸军事合作/0.47%
		A1.6 两岸涉外事务合作/1.85%
		A1.7 国台办/“陆委会”等机构的发言/1.45%
		A1.8 两岸在突发灾难事件中的合作/1.60%
	A2 官方政策/24.38%	A2.1 两岸政治协商/0.00%
		A2.2 两岸经贸谈判/8.69%
		A2.3 海协会、海基会签订协议/8.36%
		A2.4 两岸相关立法/1.05%
		A2.5 两岸行政机构政策/2.58%
		A2.6 两岸直接通邮、通商与通航/3.70%
	A3 非官方互/13.43%	A3.1 中国共产党与台湾在野党交流/5.50%
		A3.2海协会与海基会交流/4.81%
		A3.3 建立非官方的对话、交流平台/2.57%
		A3.4 美、日等国对台湾问题的干涉/0.55%
B 经贸往来/26.27%	B1 两岸贸易/5.71%	B1.1 两岸经贸互动事件/1.69%
		B1.2 台湾对大陆出口贸易额/1.78%
		B1.3 大陆对台湾出口贸易额/2.24%
	B2 两岸投资/20.56%	B2.1 两岸金融合作事件/9.50%
		B2.2 大陆实际利用台商直接投资额/1.97%
		B2.3 大陆对台湾直接投资净额/6.30%
		B2.4 大陆对台湾承包工程完成营业额/2.79%
C 文旅交流/20.24%	C1 文化交流/7.44%	C1.1 两岸媒体互动事件/0.48%
		C1.2 两岸文化、学术交流活动/3.25%
		C1.3 从台湾引进图书版权总数/1.93%
		C1.4 向台湾输出图书版权总数/1.78%
	C2 旅游交流/12.80%	C2.1 台湾同胞入境游客数/1.25%
		C2.2 两岸直航航线数/5.81%
		C2.3 两岸直航乘客数/5.74%