朝鲜粮食生产能力及增产潜力影响因素研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.05.2021397

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

以朝鲜为研究区，综合利用统计数据、卫星遥感数据、数字高程数据和气候数据，通过时间序列分析、地理区域对比分析、GIS空间分析等方法，研究了朝鲜的粮食生产能力。在此基础上，将朝鲜粮食生产能力与中国、韩国两个主要邻国，以及自然条件近似的中国辽宁省、河北省相关指标开展对比分析，研判了朝鲜粮食生产的相对水平与发展阶段。研究表明：①朝鲜现状粮食生产能力较低，与中国和韩国有较大差距，2019年朝鲜粮食单产为3 800 kg/hm²，相当于中国1990年的单产水平，或韩国1970年单产水平；②朝鲜播种面积最大的粮食作物为水稻、玉米和大豆（合计83.6%），这与中国玉米、水稻、小麦并重（合计占比80.6%）及韩国水稻一枝独秀（占比82.6%）的种植结构差异明显；③朝鲜粮食生产能力波动明显，可以划分为稳定上涨期（1961—1991）、剧烈下降期（1992—1997）、逐步恢复期（1998年以来）三个阶段；④朝鲜的化肥产量和施用量虽然较低，但通过化肥、有机肥的综合施用，可以接近中国现阶段的农田肥料水平，保证耕地维持粮食生产能力的需要；⑤朝鲜当前具备灌溉条件的耕地面积占比达67%，灌溉能力与我国辽宁省、河北省基本相当；⑥朝鲜南部水热条件较为充足，可探索实行两年三熟或一年两熟耕作制度，通过提升复种指数进而提高粮食产量。假设实行一年两熟的耕作制度，朝鲜至少可增加83.14万吨粮食产量，至少保证319万人的粮食供给，增产潜力巨大。

关键词: 朝鲜, 粮食生产, 多源信息, 增产潜力, 比较研究

Abstract:

Taking DPRK as the study area, we comprehensively used statistical data, satellite remote sensing data, Digital Elevation Model data and climate data to study the grain production capacity through time series analysis, geographical area comparison analysis and GIS spatial analysis. On this basis, we compared the grain production capacity of the DPRK with that of China, the Republic of Korea, Liaoning Province and Hebei Province with similar natural conditions, and judged the relative level and development stage of grain production in the DPRK. The results show that: ①DPRK's current grain production capacity is low, and there is a big gap between China and DPRK. In 2019, DPRK's grain yield per unit area is 3 800 kg/hm², which is equivalent to that of China in 1990 or that of the Republic of Korea in 1970. ②Rice, maize and soybean (83.6%) are the largest grain crops sown in DPRK, which is significantly different from the planting structure of rice, wheat and Maize in China (80.6%) and rice in the Republic of Korea (82.6%). ③The fluctuation of grain production capacity in DPRK is obvious, which can be divided into three stages: stable rising period (1961-1991), drastic decline period (1992-1997), and gradual recovery period (since 1998). ④Although the fertilizer output and application rate in DPRK are relatively low, the comprehensive application of chemical fertilizer and organic fertilizer can approach the current level of fertilizer application in China. ⑤At present, the area of cultivated land with irrigation conditions in DPRK accounts for 67%. Its irrigation capacity is the same as that of the Liaoning and Hebei Provinces in China. ⑥The southern part of DPRK has sufficient water and heat conditions, and the farming system of three crops in two years or two-crops in one year can be implemented to improve grain production. Assuming the implementation of two crops in one year, it can increase grain production by at least 0.83 million tons and guarantee grain supply for 3.19 million people.

Key words: Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK), grain production, multi-source information, production potential, comparative study

姜鲁光, 刘晔. 朝鲜粮食生产能力及增产潜力影响因素研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(5): 67-78.

Luguang JIANG, Ye LIU. Study on grain production capacity and the influencing factors of production potential in Democratic People's Republic of Korea[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(5): 67-78.

图/表 11

参考文献 23

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轨道号	成像时间	云量	影像ID
115-30	2020-09-28	3.07%	LC81150302020272LGN00
115-31	2019-09-26	0.22%	LC81150312019269LGN00
115-32	2019-09-26	0.07%	LC81150322019269LGN00
115-33	2020-09-28	6.34%	LC81150332020272LGN00
116-31	2017-08-26	0.00%	LC81160312017238LGN00
116-32	2017-08-26	0.06%	LC81160322017238LGN00
116-33	2020-10-05	2.81%	LC81160332020279LGN00
116-34	2016-09-24	1.48%	LC81160342016268LGN02
117-31	2017-10-04	0.00%	LC81170312017277LGN00
117-32	2017-10-01	0.00%	LC81170322017277LGN00
117-33	2019-09-24	0.23%	LC81170332019267LGN00
117-34	2019-09-23	0.04%	LC81170342019267LGN00
118-32	2020-10-19	1.88%	LC81180322020293LGN00

轨道号	成像时间	云量	影像ID
115-30	2020-09-28	3.07%	LC81150302020272LGN00
115-31	2019-09-26	0.22%	LC81150312019269LGN00
115-32	2019-09-26	0.07%	LC81150322019269LGN00
115-33	2020-09-28	6.34%	LC81150332020272LGN00
116-31	2017-08-26	0.00%	LC81160312017238LGN00
116-32	2017-08-26	0.06%	LC81160322017238LGN00
116-33	2020-10-05	2.81%	LC81160332020279LGN00
116-34	2016-09-24	1.48%	LC81160342016268LGN02
117-31	2017-10-04	0.00%	LC81170312017277LGN00
117-32	2017-10-01	0.00%	LC81170322017277LGN00
117-33	2019-09-24	0.23%	LC81170332019267LGN00
117-34	2019-09-23	0.04%	LC81170342019267LGN00
118-32	2020-10-19	1.88%	LC81180322020293LGN00

行政区名称	1961年	1991年	1997年	2019年
慈江道	28.87	64.30	24.93	41.55
咸镜北道	44.67	99.50	38.58	64.30
咸镜南道	47.05	104.80	40.64	67.73
黄海北道	56.11	124.98	48.46	80.77
黄海南道	59.11	131.66	51.05	85.09
江原道	33.43	74.46	28.87	48.12
平安北道	58.83	131.03	50.81	84.68
平安南道	61.37	136.69	53.00	88.34
平壤直辖市	16.13	35.92	13.93	23.21
两江道	17.29	38.52	14.93	24.89
总计	422.88	941.86	365.21	608.69

行政区名称	1961年	1991年	1997年	2019年
慈江道	28.87	64.30	24.93	41.55
咸镜北道	44.67	99.50	38.58	64.30
咸镜南道	47.05	104.80	40.64	67.73
黄海北道	56.11	124.98	48.46	80.77
黄海南道	59.11	131.66	51.05	85.09
江原道	33.43	74.46	28.87	48.12
平安北道	58.83	131.03	50.81	84.68
平安南道	61.37	136.69	53.00	88.34
平壤直辖市	16.13	35.92	13.93	23.21
两江道	17.29	38.52	14.93	24.89
总计	422.88	941.86	365.21	608.69

地区	面积/km²	年日照时间/h	年平均气温/℃	≥10℃积温/℃	年降水量/mm	地带性土壤类型
朝鲜	12.27	2 000～2 500	8～12	3 300～3 600	580～950	棕壤、褐土
辽宁省	14.80	2 100～2 600	7～11	2 700～3 700	600～1 100	棕壤、褐土
河北省	18.88	2 400～3 100	8～13	2 300～4 700	300～800	棕壤、褐土