区域失衡测度和联动发展机制比较研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.05.2021356

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

构建联动中的、相对的、人均意义上的区域失衡的动态测度指标，测算依附于济南、青岛和广州、深圳的两个城市网络的动态失衡程度，比较两个区域中城市联动机制的差异性，剖析区域失衡的演变路径和演变向度。结果发现：济南、青岛之间和广州、深圳之间，分别表现为强竞争关系和弱合作关系，不同层级、向度的作用力推拉区域发展的平衡和失衡；依附于济青和广深的两个城市网络中，个体城市受中心城市辐射力大小分别正相关于城市自身的经济发展水平和经济吸附力，联动参与度低的城市可能面临失衡加剧的挑战；在局部区域内，腹地城市受中心城市辐射力的距离衰减趋势不明显，时空压缩提升了城市联动的广泛性和指向性；城市联动可能加剧局部区域内部的绝对失衡，却能够推动区域自发强化联动结构，走向动态平衡。因此，不同体量、层级和发展阶段的区域，空间联动结构和联动机制差异巨大，实现高质量发展亟须构建动态评价区域失衡的多维度体系，在联动发展中兼顾效率和公平，避免打起混战，内耗经济和政策资源。

关键词: 失衡, 区域, 依附指数, 联动机制, 比较研究

Abstract:

This study constructed a dynamic measurement index of regional imbalance, calculated the dynamic imbalance degree of two urban networks attached to Jinan, Qingdao, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, compared the differences of urban linkage mechanism in the two regions, and analyzed the evolution path and direction of regional imbalance. Results show that: The relationship between Jinan and Qingdao is a strong competition, which is a weak cooperation between Guangzhou and Shenzhen instead; The forces of different levels and dimensions push and pull the balance and imbalance of regional development; Secondly, depending on the two urban networks of Jinan, Qingdao, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the radiation power of individual cities by central cities is positively related to their own economic development level and economic adsorption power, and cities with low linkage participation may face the challenge of increasing imbalance; Thirdly, in some regions, the distance attenuation trend of hinterland cities affected by central city radiation force is not obvious, and space-time compression improves the universality and directivity of urban linkage; Finally, urban linkage may aggravate the absolute imbalance within the local region, but it can promote the spontaneous strengthening of regional linkage structure and move towards dynamic balance. Research enlightenment: the spatial linkage structure and linkage mechanism of regions with different volumes, levels and development stages are greatly different. It is urgent to build a multi-dimensional system of dynamic evaluation of regional imbalance, consider efficiency and fairness in the linkage development, and avoid internal consumption of economic and policy resources caused by vicious competition.

Key words: imbalance, area, attachment index, linkage mechanism, comparative study

王鹏林, 周素杰, 冯兴华. 区域失衡测度和联动发展机制比较研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(5): 102-112.

Penglin WANG, Sujie ZHOU, Xinghua FENG. A comparative study of regional imbalance measurement and linkage development mechanism:[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(5): 102-112.

图/表 5

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变量	注释	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准差	样本量
ad_a	城市吸附指数	188.25	1.80	48.93	48.22	69
de_jn	对济南的依附力	125.41	0.60	30.83	40.72	69
de_qd	对青岛的依附力	111.74	0.30	25.35	45.72	69
longi_a	经度	122.48	113.65	117.61	2.23	69
lati_a	纬度	38.71	33.93	36.11	1.62	69
gdp_a	GDP	2 034.22	180.14	388.84	472.88	69
dis_a	空间距离	526.16	34.48	235.11	132.64	69
imb_a	动态失衡指数	9.24	－11.95	－5.87	4.16	69
ad_b	城市吸附指数	340.14	1.80	60.67	54.27	72
de_gz	对广州的依附力	184.73	0.70	45.21	55.33	72
de_sz	对深圳的依附力	134.66	0.30	30.45	46.14	72
longi_b	经度	117.81	109.11	112.70	2.79	72
lati_b	纬度	26.70	20.32	23.32	1.61	72
dis_b	空间距离	537.92	18.74	249.95	115.43	72
gdp_b	GDP	3 550.71	200.27	422.77	517.69	72
imb_b	动态失衡指数	6.13	－19.98	－7.42	5.40	72

变量	注释	最大值	最小值	平均值	标准差	样本量
ad_a	城市吸附指数	188.25	1.80	48.93	48.22	69
de_jn	对济南的依附力	125.41	0.60	30.83	40.72	69
de_qd	对青岛的依附力	111.74	0.30	25.35	45.72	69
longi_a	经度	122.48	113.65	117.61	2.23	69
lati_a	纬度	38.71	33.93	36.11	1.62	69
gdp_a	GDP	2 034.22	180.14	388.84	472.88	69
dis_a	空间距离	526.16	34.48	235.11	132.64	69
imb_a	动态失衡指数	9.24	－11.95	－5.87	4.16	69
ad_b	城市吸附指数	340.14	1.80	60.67	54.27	72
de_gz	对广州的依附力	184.73	0.70	45.21	55.33	72
de_sz	对深圳的依附力	134.66	0.30	30.45	46.14	72
longi_b	经度	117.81	109.11	112.70	2.79	72
lati_b	纬度	26.70	20.32	23.32	1.61	72
dis_b	空间距离	537.92	18.74	249.95	115.43	72
gdp_b	GDP	3 550.71	200.27	422.77	517.69	72
imb_b	动态失衡指数	6.13	－19.98	－7.42	5.40	72

参数	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6
变量	de_qd	de_qd	de_qd	de_jn	de_jn	de_jn
de_jn	0.139^***(0.04)	0.111^***(0.03)	0.137^***(0.03)
de_qd				1.221^***(0.27)	0.902^***(0.29)	1.032^***(0.31)
ad	0.003(0.01)			0.026(0.02)
ad_sd		0.088^***(0.01)	0.103^***(0.01)		0.150^***(0.05)	0.230^***(0.06)
longi	－3.032(1.96)	－0.834(1.44)	－0.162(1.44)	4.199(2.75)	1.132(2.63)	3.547(3.43)
lati	3.088^*(1.75)	0.570(1.26)	0.542(1.30)	－8.008^**(3.77)	－9.320^**(3.59)	－10.390^**(3.92)
dis	－0.078^***(0.02)	－0.033(0.02)	－0.029(0.02)	－0.096^*(0.05)	－0.031(0.05)	－0.043(0.06)
gdp	0.005^***(0.00)	0.002^**(0.00)		0.010^***(0.00)	0.011^***(0.00)
imb			0.475^*(0.27)			2.067^**(0.98)
常数项	272.400(253.30)	87.440(185.00)	14.540(186.80)	－180.900(305.50)	206.200(287.70)	－7.182(376.50)
拟合优度	0.481	0.727	0.711	0.564	0.597	0.515

参数	模型1	模型2	模型3	模型4	模型5	模型6
变量	de_qd	de_qd	de_qd	de_jn	de_jn	de_jn
de_jn	0.139^***(0.04)	0.111^***(0.03)	0.137^***(0.03)
de_qd				1.221^***(0.27)	0.902^***(0.29)	1.032^***(0.31)
ad	0.003(0.01)			0.026(0.02)
ad_sd		0.088^***(0.01)	0.103^***(0.01)		0.150^***(0.05)	0.230^***(0.06)
longi	－3.032(1.96)	－0.834(1.44)	－0.162(1.44)	4.199(2.75)	1.132(2.63)	3.547(3.43)
lati	3.088^*(1.75)	0.570(1.26)	0.542(1.30)	－8.008^**(3.77)	－9.320^**(3.59)	－10.390^**(3.92)
dis	－0.078^***(0.02)	－0.033(0.02)	－0.029(0.02)	－0.096^*(0.05)	－0.031(0.05)	－0.043(0.06)
gdp	0.005^***(0.00)	0.002^**(0.00)		0.010^***(0.00)	0.011^***(0.00)
imb			0.475^*(0.27)			2.067^**(0.98)
常数项	272.400(253.30)	87.440(185.00)	14.540(186.80)	－180.900(305.50)	206.200(287.70)	－7.182(376.50)
拟合优度	0.481	0.727	0.711	0.564	0.597	0.515

参数	模型7	模型8	模型9	模型10	模型11	模型12
变量	de_gz	de_gz	de_gz	de_sz	de_sz	de_sz
de_sz	－0.559^*(0.28)	0.137(0.36)	0.135(0.37)
de_gz				－0.098^*(0.05)	0.015(0.04)	0.009(0.03)
ad	14.700^***(2.81)			6.034^***(1.19)
ad_gd		1.084(4.79)	1.176(4.86)		7.654^***(1.30)	7.344^***(1.32)
longi	4.349(6.86)	－4.125(7.94)	－4.483(8.28)	6.645^**(2.76)	3.118(2.64)	3.144(2.61)
lati	－12.360(10.12)	5.829(11.31)	6.318(11.76)	－12.620^**(3.99)	－5.871(3.73)	－6.513(3.74)
dis	－0.057(0.09)	－0.008(0.13)	－0.010(0.13)	－0.023^*(0.01)	－0.094^**(0.04)	－0.088^**(0.04)
gdp	0.007(0.00)	0.039^***(0.00)		－0.008(0.00)	0.000(0.00)
imb			－0.070(0.41)			0.315^*(0.19)
常数项	－183.300(705.30)	341.100(831.10)	368.900(853.5)	－425.900(290.80)	－226.500(277.90)	－203.500(275.80)
拟合优度	0.580	0.404	0.405	0.349	0.407	0.418