长三角民营上市企业时空发展特征与驱动因素效应分异研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.09.2021473

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于长三角民营上市企业数据，依据熵权法测度民营上市企业发展指数，结合探索性空间数据分析法解析其时空发展特征，并运用空间计量模型估计驱动因素的空间分异。结果表明：①2003—2018年，无论从企业数量还是从主营收入来看，长三角民营上市企业行业前十位的占比均超过五成。前十行业以制造业为主服务业为辅，主营收入中以批发零售业及制造业为主；②长三角民营上市企业呈现“西北-东南”发展格局，变化特征为“先扩散后集聚，类Z字形偏移”，其蔓延区域空间异质性显著且呈“多中心半环绕型”蔓延；③民营上市企业发展的驱动因素空间分异沿单方向梯度变化，驱动效应维持正向的因素有技术创新环境、市场规模，由正向驱动转为负向驱动的因素有交通可达性、城市政策环境，由负向驱动转向正向驱动的因素有生产成本、对外开放程度。

关键词: 民营上市企业, 时空格局, 驱动因素, 长三角

Abstract:

Based on the data of private listed enterprises in Yangtze River Delta, we measure the development index of private listed enterprises based on the entropy method, analyze their spatial and temporal development characteristics by combining the exploratory spatial data analysis method, and quantitatively estimate the spatial variation of driving factors by using the econometric model. The results show that: ① During 2003-2018,the top 10 industries occupied by private listed enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta had been mainly manufacturings and services, no matter measured by numbers of enterprises or by revenue, the share of these two industries exceeded 50 percent; ② The private listed enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta show a "northwest-southeast" development pattern, characterized by "diffusion followed by agglomeration and Z-shaped shift", with significant spatial heterogeneity and "polycentric semi The spatial heterogeneity of its spreading area is significant and "polycentric and semi-circular"; ③ The spatial differentiation of driving factors is not significant, and its spatial differentiation changes along a unidirectional gradient, the driving effect is maintained in the positive driving environment of technological innovation, market scale, from positive driving to negative driving traffic accessibility, urban policy environment, from negative driving to positive driving. The driving effects are maintained in the positive direction by technological innovation environment and market scale, in the negative direction by traffic accessibility and urban policy environment, and in the negative direction by production cost and openness to the outside world.

Key words: private listed companies, spatial and temporal patterns, driving factors, Yangtze River Delta

陶杰, 曹卫东, 吴娟. 长三角民营上市企业时空发展特征与驱动因素效应分异研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(9): 120-132.

Jie TAO, Weidong CAO, Juan WU. Spatio-temporal development characteristics and driving effects of private listed enterprises in Yangtze River Delta[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(9): 120-132.

图/表 8

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变量	年份
变量	2003	2008	2013	2018
所属城市数	27	30	35	35
民营上市企业数	142	240	525	924
所属门类	13	14	17	15
行业大类	35	40	56	63
营业收入/亿元	1 483.00	4 729.01	14 302.02	38 395.78
分行业企业数变异系数	0.95	0.97	1.35	1.44
分行业企业营收变异系数	1.30	1.25	1.51	1.47

变量	年份
变量	2003	2008	2013	2018
所属城市数	27	30	35	35
民营上市企业数	142	240	525	924
所属门类	13	14	17	15
行业大类	35	40	56	63
营业收入/亿元	1 483.00	4 729.01	14 302.02	38 395.78
分行业企业数变异系数	0.95	0.97	1.35	1.44
分行业企业营收变异系数	1.30	1.25	1.51	1.47

年份	标准差椭圆参数
年份	中心点经度	中心点纬度	长轴标准差	短轴标准差	转角 /°	周长/km	面积/ km²
2003	120.471	31.157	3.768	2.479	127.897	19.831	29.333
2008	120.431	30.886	3.799	2.570	139.472	20.195	30.670
2013	120.372	30.910	3.863	2.555	142.044	20.372	31.008
2018	120.378	30.879	3.739	2.460	140.685	19.684	28.900

年份	标准差椭圆参数
年份	中心点经度	中心点纬度	长轴标准差	短轴标准差	转角 /°	周长/km	面积/ km²
2003	120.471	31.157	3.768	2.479	127.897	19.831	29.333
2008	120.431	30.886	3.799	2.570	139.472	20.195	30.670
2013	120.372	30.910	3.863	2.555	142.044	20.372	31.008
2018	120.378	30.879	3.739	2.460	140.685	19.684	28.900

变量	2003年				2018年
变量	系数	t 统计量	概率	VIF	系数	t 统计量	概率	VIF
截距	－0.0758	－1.8504	0.0791	—	－0.6568	－3.6471	0.0011^*	—
OD	－1.0724	－3.1735	0.0048^*	3.3492	0.8848	0.5343	0.5974	1.5340
MS	0.0000	4.2891	0.0004^*	6.8746	0.0000	0.9276	0.3615	4.5431
TA	0.1116	2.2483	0.0360^*	1.3566	－0.0179	－0.2255	0.8233	1.3952
UPE	0.1919	2.8258	0.0104^*	3.3492	－0.5765	-0.8464	0.4045	3.3863
TIE	8.6061	1.4637	0.1588	2.3423	1.1405	0.8690	0.3922	1.6950
COP	－0.0550	－1.5216	0.1438	5.1014	0.0905	3.6238	0.0011^*	2.8052
卡方统计量	33.0698^*				61.2658^*
校正R²	0.6789				0.6243
AICc	－77.1159				25.8913
Koenker(BP)统计量	14.4257^*				20.1373^*
Jarque-Bera 统计量	1.5584				0.1030