贵州县域人口收缩空间特征及影响因素的MGWR探测

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2023.12.2021627

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

人口是一种重要的社会经济资源，其收缩态势关系着区域社会经济的可持续发展性和平稳性。基于2008—2017年贵州县域人口数据，利用年均人口变化率公式测算人口收缩的空间态势，并选用多尺度地理加权回归模型（MGWR）定量探讨贵州县域人口变化特征的影响因素。研究发现：（1） 2008—2012年，贵州县域人口收缩区域增长显著，尤其西部与南部地带；2013—2017年，贵州县域人口收缩区域锐减，且主要集中在西南部重度石漠化区域。（2）2008—2017年，贵州县域人口收缩类型以阶段收缩为主，持续增长次之，持续收缩最少。（3）社会经济和自然环境各因素对贵州县域人口收缩的影响具有显著差别，政府财政支出是人口收缩的主要驱动因素，地形起伏度次之，到地级市中心距离和到省会距离影响较大，非石漠化地域占比、人均GDP和二三产值占比影响相对较小。

关键词: 人口收缩, MGWR, 人口分布, 人口增长率, 贵州

Abstract:

Nowadays, many countries and regions in the world have experienced the problem of population shrinkage brought about by the decline in permanent population. With the development of economic transformation and the construction of new-type urbanization, the urban-rural and inter-regional flow of population has accelerated, and the shrinkage of regional population has become a common problem. Based on this, this paper selects the population data of Guizhou counties from 2008 to 2017, using the annual average population change rate to measure the spatial trend of population shrinkage. A Multi-Scale Geographic Weighted Regression Model (MGWR) is chosen to explore the influencing factors of the characteristics of the population change in Guizhou counties. We have found that:(1) From 2008 to 2012, the population shrinkage of Guizhou counties increased significantly, especially in the western and southern regions. Between 2013 and 2017, the population shrinkage counties in Guizhou decreased sharply, and it was mainly concentrated in the severe rocky desertification area in the southwest. (2) From 2008 to 2017, the main types of population shrinkage in Guizhou counties were phased shrinkage, followed by continuous growth, while continuous contraction was the least prevalent. (3) Social economic and natural environmental factors have significantly different impact on the population shrinkage of Guizhou counties. The primary driving factor for population shrinkage in Guizhou counties is government fiscal expenditure, followed by topographical fluctuations. Factors such as the distance to prefecture-level cities and provincial capitals have a greater impact, while the proportion of non-rocky desertification areas, per capita GDP, and the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries had a relatively smaller influence.

Key words: population shrinkage, MGWR, population distribution, population growth rate, Guizhou

应奎, 丁金宏, 陈益豪, 黄小丽. 贵州县域人口收缩空间特征及影响因素的MGWR探测[J]. 世界地理研究, 2023, 32(12): 172-184.

Kui YING, Jinhong DING, Yihao CHEN, Xiaoli HUANG. Spatial characteristics of population shrinkage and influencing factors detected by MGWR model in Guizhou County[J]. World Regional Studies, 2023, 32(12): 172-184.

图/表 12

表1 贵州县域人口收缩指标选择及解释

Tab.1 Selection and interpretation of population shrinkage indicators in Guizhou counties

分类	指标选取	解释与说明
经济水平	人均GDP/元	可反映区域富裕水平和人口吸引力
产业结构	二三产值占比/%	可在一定程度上反映地区非农就业状况和就业机会
公共投入	政府财政支出/万元	表示政府投入社会服务的支持力度
经济区位	到省会距离/km	显示研究区到省会的两点距离，越近越有机会获得省会产业转移
经济区位	到地级市距离/km	显示研究区到所属地级市的两点距离，越近越有机会获得地级市产业转移
地形因素	地形起伏度	反映区域海拔高差与地表切割状态，值越大越不利于资源开发和经济建设
环境胁迫	非石漠化地域占比/%	反映区域人口生存的胁迫性因素，石漠化占比越小越利于人口生产建设

表2 贵州县域分时段人口收缩数量特征

Tab.2 Population shrink age of Guizhou counties in different periods

特征	2008—2012年		2013—2017年		两时段变化统计
特征	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	占比/%	数量/个	变幅/%
收缩	74	84.09	6	6.82	－68	－91.9
非收缩	14	15.91	82	93.18	68	485.71

图1 贵州县域人口收缩空间分布

Fig.1 The spatial distribution of population shrinkage in Guizhou counties

图2 贵州县域人口收缩类型特征

Fig.2 Characteristics of population shrinkage types in Guizhou counties

表3 MGWR与GWR模型拟合参数比较

Tab.3 Comparison of fitting parameters of MGWR and GWR models from 2008 to 2017

模型参数	2008—2012年		2013—2017年
模型参数	MGWR	GWR	MGWR	GWR
拟合优度R²	0.944	0.940	0.908	0.905
调整R²	0.928	0.925	0.879	0.873
AICc值	49.673	49.565	99.058	103.953
残差平方和	4.834	5.244	7.962	8.258
Sigma估计值	0.267	0.274	0.348	0.355

表4 影响因素的GWR和MGWR模型带宽比较

Tab.4 Comparison of bandwidth of GWR and MGWR models for influencing factors

变量带宽	2008—2012年		2013—2017年
变量带宽	MGWR	GWR	MGWR	GWR
人均GDP	85	71	85	70
二三产值占比	85	71	85	70
政府财政支出	44	71	44	70
到省会距离	85	71	85	70
到地级市距离	79	71	70	70
地形起伏度	48	71	44	70
非石漠化地域占比	85	71	83	70

图3 2008—2017年MGWR模型经济水平回归系数空间分布

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of economic level of MGWR model from 2008 to 2017

图4 2008—2017年MGWR模型产业结构回归系数空间分布

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of industrial structure of MGWR model from 2008 to 2017

图5 2008—2017年MGWR模型公共投入回归系数空间分布

Fig.5 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of public input of MGWR model from 2008 to 2017

图6 2008—2017年MGWR模型经济区位回归系数空间分布

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of economic location of MGWR model from 2008 to 2017

图7 2008—2017年MGWR模型地形因素回归系数空间分布

Fig.7 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of topographical factors of MGWR model from 2008 to 2017

图8 2008—2017年MGWR模型环境胁迫回归系数空间分布

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of regression coefficients of environmental stress of MGWR model from 2008 to 2017

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