中国工业天然气补贴的空间差异及变动影响研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2024.06.20222042

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于2010—2017年中国工业天然气消费数据，从补贴规模和补贴水平两个维度分析了中国工业天然气补贴的时空格局，并测度了补贴的空间差异，进一步基于能源需求价格弹性，从空间视角分析工业天然气补贴变动的影响。研究发现：①非居民部门天然气价格改革有效减少了工业天然气补贴；补贴分布呈现出西高东低的空间格局，省区之间的补贴存在显著差异；2014年后，补贴重心进一步向西部迁移，负补贴省区增多且主要出现在东北、华中、华东和华南地区。②东北、华中、华东以及华南地区部分省份在2015—2017年过低的补贴水平，加剧了该时期补贴的空间差异；华东、华南以及西北地区是区域间补贴空间差异的主要来源，而区域内补贴空间差异主要受华东和华南地区影响。③产业结构和工业能源强度的空间差异与补贴空间差异存在较强正向关联；此外，非居民部门天然气价格市场化改革向全国推广后，补贴空间差异受到了更多市场力量的影响。④调整工业天然气补贴的空间分配格局，能够大幅降低补贴的空间差异程度，并提升补贴的总体效益，特别是取消负补贴带来的总体效益提升最大。

关键词: 工业天然气补贴, 空间差异, 价差法, 泰尔指数, 灰色关联分析

Abstract:

Based on China's industrial natural gas consumption data from 2010 to 2017, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of China's industrial natural gas subsidies from the two dimensions of subsidy scale and subsidy level, measured the spatial disparities of subsidies, and further analyzed the impact of industrial natural gas subsidy alteration from a spatial perspective based on the price elasticity of energy demand. The research finds that: ① the natural gas price reform in non-residential sectors has effectively reduced industrial natural gas subsidies; The distribution of subsidies shows a spatial pattern of high in the west and low in the east, and there are significant disparities in subsidies between provinces and regions; After the price reform was basically completed, the focus of subsidies further shifted to the west. Besides, provinces with negative subsidies increased and mainly appeared in the Northeast China, Central China, East China and South China. ② The subsidy level of some provinces in Northeast China, central China, East China and South China was too low from 2015 to 2017, which led to the expansion of the spatial disparities of subsidies during this period; East China, South China and Northwest China are the main sources of inter-regional disparities of subsidies, and the spatial differences in subsidies within regions are mainly affected by East China and South China. ③There is a strong positive correlation between the spatial disparities of industrial structure and industrial energy intensity and the spatial disparities of industrial natural gas subsidy. In addition, after the marketization reform of natural gas prices in the non-residential sector was introduced nationwide, the spatial disparities of industrial natural gas subsidy have been more affected by market forces. ④Adjusting the spatial allocation of industrial natural gas subsidies can significantly reduce the spatial disparities of subsidies and improve the overall benefits of subsidies. Specifically, the elimination of negative subsidies will bring the greatest overall benefits.

Key words: industrial natural gas subsidy, spatial disparities, price-gap approach, Theil index, grey relation analysis

龚利, 祝磊皓, 马璐. 中国工业天然气补贴的空间差异及变动影响研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2024, 33(6): 89-101.

Li GONG, Leihao ZHU, Lu MA. Research on spatial disparities of industrial natural gas subsidy and impact of alteration in China[J]. World Regional Studies, 2024, 33(6): 89-101.

图/表 12

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项目	年份	最小值	第一四分位数	第二四分位数	第三四分位数	最大值	平均值	极差
补贴规模/亿元	2010	－22.42	4.16	12.89	32.02	195.76	25.54	218.18
	2011	－5.34	12.12	29.69	60.45	206.98	43.75	212.32
	2012	－24.55	16.83	39.70	87.78	227.44	52.78	251.99
	2013	－39.25	7.59	30.65	70.04	246.61	48.17	285.86
	2014	－54.79	5.68	18.53	43.41	311.52	36.13	366.32
	2015	－92.39	－7.02	－1.25	13.44	189.68	6.96	282.07
	2016	－94.32	－7.85	4.06	13.83	117.22	9.21	211.55
	2017	－104.74	－4.98	3.93	17.50	165.85	13.03	270.59
补贴水平/（元/m³）	2010	－0.45	0.29	0.78	1.53	2.05	0.86	2.50
	2011	－0.28	0.88	1.37	2.04	3.02	1.39	3.30
	2012	－0.43	0.90	1.56	2.25	2.88	1.47	3.30
	2013	－0.64	0.34	1.15	1.55	2.60	1.11	3.24
	2014	－0.74	0.21	0.63	1.19	2.42	0.73	3.17
	2015	－1.07	－0.26	－0.03	0.64	1.60	0.12	2.67
	2016	－1.29	－0.19	0.21	0.44	1.53	0.17	2.82
	2017	－1.43	－0.17	0.27	0.66	1.62	0.23	3.05

项目	年份	最小值	第一四分位数	第二四分位数	第三四分位数	最大值	平均值	极差
补贴规模/亿元	2010	－22.42	4.16	12.89	32.02	195.76	25.54	218.18
	2011	－5.34	12.12	29.69	60.45	206.98	43.75	212.32
	2012	－24.55	16.83	39.70	87.78	227.44	52.78	251.99
	2013	－39.25	7.59	30.65	70.04	246.61	48.17	285.86
	2014	－54.79	5.68	18.53	43.41	311.52	36.13	366.32
	2015	－92.39	－7.02	－1.25	13.44	189.68	6.96	282.07
	2016	－94.32	－7.85	4.06	13.83	117.22	9.21	211.55
	2017	－104.74	－4.98	3.93	17.50	165.85	13.03	270.59
补贴水平/（元/m³）	2010	－0.45	0.29	0.78	1.53	2.05	0.86	2.50
	2011	－0.28	0.88	1.37	2.04	3.02	1.39	3.30
	2012	－0.43	0.90	1.56	2.25	2.88	1.47	3.30
	2013	－0.64	0.34	1.15	1.55	2.60	1.11	3.24
	2014	－0.74	0.21	0.63	1.19	2.42	0.73	3.17
	2015	－1.07	－0.26	－0.03	0.64	1.60	0.12	2.67
	2016	－1.29	－0.19	0.21	0.44	1.53	0.17	2.82
	2017	－1.43	－0.17	0.27	0.66	1.62	0.23	3.05

年份	省区
2010	辽宁、广东
2011	广东、广西
2012	广东、广西
2013	广东、广西
2014	黑龙江、浙江、福建、山东
2015	辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、四川、贵州
2016	辽宁、黑龙江、上海、浙江、福建、山东、河南、湖北、广东、广西、海南
2017	辽宁、黑龙江、上海、浙江、安徽、福建、山东、湖北、广东、广西、海南

年份	省区
2010	辽宁、广东
2011	广东、广西
2012	广东、广西
2013	广东、广西
2014	黑龙江、浙江、福建、山东
2015	辽宁、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、安徽、福建、江西、山东、湖北、湖南、广东、广西、四川、贵州
2016	辽宁、黑龙江、上海、浙江、福建、山东、河南、湖北、广东、广西、海南
2017	辽宁、黑龙江、上海、浙江、安徽、福建、山东、湖北、广东、广西、海南

因素	内涵
产业结构	工业GDP占总GDP比重，反映工业对经济的贡献
工业能源结构	工业天然气消费占工业化石能源消费比重，反映工业天然气的消费需求
工业能源强度	单位工业GDP所消耗的化石能源，反映工业能源利用效率
人均GDP	单位人口所创造的GDP，反映经济发展水平
地方市场化程度	反映地方市场化进程
工业天然气市场价格	反映天然气市场的冲击