自由贸易试验区对减污降碳的影响效应研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-9479.2025.02.20230885

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

自由贸易试验区是新时代全面深化改革和扩大开放的重要举措，在“双碳”目标约束下，生态环境成为自由贸易试验区的竞争力和发展基础。基于2007—2021年中国282个城市的面板数据，通过构建多期DID和空间DID模型，系统考察了自由贸易试验区设立对大气污染和碳排放的影响、作用机制及空间溢出效应。研究发现：①自贸区的设立促进了城市减污降碳，且经过一系列稳健性检验后该结论依然成立；②机制分析结果表明，自贸区能够通过技术创新和外商直接投资来降低大气污染与碳排放水平，但通过“去工业化”仅能降低碳排放；③异质性分析发现自贸区的减污降碳效果在东部地区、环保型自贸区更为明显；④自贸区的设立对邻近非试点城市的大气污染状况具有显著的改善作用，且最佳政策溢出效应为50~150 km。因此，未来应持续完善自贸区的顶层设计，将生态环境要求纳入其中，以充分发挥其对城市绿色、可持续发展的驱动作用。

关键词: 自贸区, 减污降碳, 多期DID模型, 空间DID模型

Abstract:

Pilot free trade zone is an important initiative for comprehensively deepening reform and expanding opening up in the new era, and under the constraint of the "double carbon" target, the ecological environment becomes the competitiveness and development foundation of the pilot free trade zone. Based on the panel data of 282 cities in China from 2007 to 2021, the impacts, mechanisms and spatial spillover effects of the establishment of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on air pollution and carbon emissions are systematically investigated by constructing multi-period DID and spatial DID models. The study finds that: ① The establishment of FTZs promotes the reduction of pollution and carbon emissions in cities, and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests; ② The results of the mechanism analysis show that FTZs can reduce the levels of air pollution and carbon emissions through technological innovations and foreign direct investment, but only reduce carbon emissions through "de-industrialization"; ③ Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the pollution and carbon reduction effect of FTZs will be more obvious in the eastern region and environmentally friendly FTZs; ④ The establishment of FTZs has a significant effect on improving the air pollution situation of neighboring non-pilot cities, and the optimal policy spillover effect scope is 50-150km. Therefore, the top-level design of FTZs should be improved in the future, and the ecological requirements should be incorporated into them, in order to give full play to the role of driving green and sustainable development of the cities. and sustainable development of the city.

Key words: Free Trade Zone, air pollution and carbon emission reduction, multi-period DID model, spatial DID model

肖黎明, 张颖. 自由贸易试验区对减污降碳的影响效应研究[J]. 世界地理研究, 2025, 34(2): 98-113.

Liming XIAO, Ying ZHANG. Research on the impact of free trade pilot zones on pollution reduction and carbon reduction[J]. World Regional Studies, 2025, 34(2): 98-113.

图/表 14

参考文献 47

1	李红霞,郑石明,要蓉蓉.环境与经济目标设置何以影响减污降碳协同管理绩效?中国人口·资源与环境,2022,32(11):109-120.
	LI H, ZHENG S, YAO R. How do environmental and economic goal-settings affect the synergistic performance of air pollution and carbon reduction?China Population, Resources and Environment,2022,32(11):109-120.
2	陆敏,徐好,陈福兴."双碳"背景下碳排放交易机制的减污降碳效应.中国人口·资源与环境, 2022,32(11):121-133.
	LU M, XU H, CHEN F. Pollution and carbon reduction effects of the carbon emissions trading mechanism in the context of the 'dual carbon' goals. China Population, Resources and Environment,2022,32(11):121-133.
3	CHEN J, LUO W, REN X, et al. The local-neighborhood effects of low-carbon city pilots program on PM2.5 in China: A spatial difference-in-differences analysis. Science of the Total Environment,2023,857:159511.
4	易兰,赵万里,杨历.大气污染与气候变化协同治理机制创新.科研管理,2020,41(10):134-144.
	YI L, ZHAO W, YANG L. Innovation of collaborative governance mechanism on air pollution and climate change control. Science Research Management,2020,41(10):134-144.
5	XUE F, ZHOU M, WANG L. The effect of the pilot free trade zone policy on carbon emissions: Evidence from China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research international,2023,30(38):89510-89520.
6	WANG A, HU Y, LI Y, et al. Do pilot free trade zones improve the green total factor productivity?Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022, 29(50):75307-75321.
7	陈珏颖,齐心,武舜臣,等.建立中印俄自贸区对区域宏观经济及农产品贸易的影响评估.农业经济问题,2023(7):116-130.
	CHEN J, QI X, WU S, et al. Assessment of the impact of establishing China-India-Russia FTA on regional macroeconomics and agricultural trade. Issues in Agricultural Economy, 2023(7):116-130.
8	BAYALE N, IBRAHIM M, ATTA-MENSAH J. Potential trade, welfare and revenue implications of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for Ghana: An application of partial equilibrium model. Journal of Public Affairs, 2020, 22(1): e2385.
9	CAI J, XIN K, ZHOU Y. A dynamic panel data approach and HCW's method: Assessing the effect of China (Shanghai) free trade zone on local GDP. Journal of Management Science and Engineering,2021,6(3):249-267.
10	LIU X, WANG Z, CUI X. Scenario simulation of the impact of China's free-trade zone construction on regional sustainable development: A case study of the pearl river delta urban agglomeration. Sustainability,2021,13(14):8083.
11	崔日明,陈永胜.自贸区设立、经济集聚与城市创新.经济理论与经济管理,2022,42(11):97-112.
	CUI R, CHEN Y. Free trade zone establishment, economic agglomeration and urban innovation. Economic Theory and Business Management,2022,42(11):97-112.
12	胡宗义,周积琨,李毅.自贸区设立改善了大气环境状况吗?中国人口·资源与环境,2022,32(2):37-50.
	HU Z, ZHOU J, LI Y. Has the establishment of free trade zones improved the atmospheric conditions?China Population, Resources and Environment, 2022,32(2):37-50.
13	ZHUO C, MAO Y, RONG J. Policy dividend or 'policy trap': environmental welfare of establishing free trade zone in China. Science of the Total Environment,2021,756:143856.
14	俞珊,韩玉花,牟洁等.北京市制造业减污降碳协同效应分析和驱动因素.环境科学,2024,45(4):1917-1925.
	YU S, HAN Y, MU J, et al. Synergy effects and driving factors of pollution and carbon emissions reduction of manufacturing industries in Beijing. Environmental Science,2024,45(4):1917-1925.
15	赵彦云,陆香怡,王汶.低碳城市的CO₂与 PM_2.5减排协同效应分析.中国环境科学,2023,43(1):465-476.
	ZHAO Y, LU X, WANG W. Assessment for co-benefits of low-carbon on CO₂ and PM_2.5 in China. China Environmental Science,2023,43(1):465-476.
16	狄乾斌,陈小龙,侯智文."双碳"目标下中国三大城市群减污降碳协同治理区域差异及关键路径识别.资源科学,2022,44(6):1155-1167.
	DI Q, CHEN X, HOU Z. Regional differences and key pathway identification of the coordinated governance of pollution control and carbon emission reduction in the three major urban agglomerations of China under the "Double-Carbon" targets. Resources Science,2022,44(6):1155-1167.
17	JIANG Y, WANG H, LIU Z. The impact of the free trade zone on green total productivity-evidence from the Shanghai pilot free trade zone. Energy Policy,2021,148:112000.
18	WANG L, WANG Z, MA Y. Environmental effects of trade liberalization-evidence from China's pilot free trade zone. Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy,2021,12(3):1-24.
19	ZHOU G, ZHANG Z, FEI Y. How to evaluate the green and high-quality development path?An FsQCA approach on the China pilot free trade zone. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2022,19(1):547.
20	WU H, REN S, YAN G, et al. Does China's outward direct investment improve green total factor productivity in the "Belt and Road" countries?Evidence from dynamic threshold panel model analysis. Journal of Environmental Management,2020,275:111295.
21	CHANG Y, LAI L. Effects and mechanisms of China's pilot free trade zones on green and high-quality development from the dual-circulation perspective. Sustainability,2023,15:947.
22	胡兆廉,石大千."溢出效应"抑或"污染效应"?——贸易自由化对工业二氧化硫排放的新视角与再测算.统计研究,2019,36(12):94-105.
	HU Z, SHI D. "Spillover Effect" or "Pollution Effect"?: A new perspective and remeasurement of the impact of trade liberalization on industrial sulfur dioxide emissions. Statistical Research,2019,36(12):94-105.
23	杨灵,唐晓华,尹博,等.自贸区对城市绿色全要素生产率的影响效应研究.软科学,2024,38(1):37-44.
	YANG L, TANG X, YIN B, et al. The effect of free trade zones on urban green total factor productivity. Soft Science,2024,38(1):37-44.
24	康继军,郑维伟.中国内陆型自贸区的贸易创造效应:扩大进口还是刺激出口.国际贸易问题,2021(2):16-31.
	KANG J, ZHENG W. The trade creation effect of China Inland Pilot Free Trade Zone: Expanding imports or increasing exports. Journal of International Trade,2021(2):16-31.
25	陈登科.贸易壁垒下降与环境污染改善——来自中国企业污染数据的新证据.经济研究,2020,55(12):98-114.
	CHEN D. Trade barrier reduction and environmental pollution improvement: New evidence from firm-level pollution data in China. Economic Research Journal,2020,55(12):98-114.
26	WANG H, ZHANG Y, LIU Z, et al. The impact and mechanisms of the Shanghai pilot free-trade zone on the green total factor productivity of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2022,29:40997-41011.
27	王亚飞,石铭,张毅.自贸区设立促进了城市经济高质量发展吗?——基于中国268个城市的准自然实验.当代经济研究,2023(6):102-118.
	WANG Y, SHI M, ZHANG Y. Has the establishment of free trade zones promoted high-quality development of urban economy?Quasi-natural experiments based on 268 cities in China. Contemporary Economic Research, 2023(6):102-118.
28	GUAN C, HUANG J, JIANG R, et al. The impact of pilot free trade zone on service industry structure upgrading. Economic Analysis and Policy,2023,78:472-491.
29	翁智雄,马忠玉,葛察忠,等.多因素驱动下的中国城市环境效应分析——基于285个地级及以上城市面板数据.中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(3):63-73.
	WENG Z, MA Z, GE C, et al. Analysis on urban environmental effect driven by multi-factors of China: Based on panel data of 285 prefecture level cities. China Population, Resources and Environment, 2017,27(3):63-73.
30	司春晓,孙诗怡,罗长远.自贸区的外资创造和外资转移效应:基于倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)的研究.世界经济研究,2021(5):9-23.
	SI C, SUN S, LUO C. The impact of free trade zone on FDI inflows: Evidence based on PSM-DID. World Economy Studies, 2021(5):9-23.
31	ZHU S, TANG Y, QIAO X, et al. The spillover effects of China's regional environmental markets to local listed firms: A risk Granger causality approach. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020,27:44123-44136.
32	LI X, XU Q, WANG H. Environmental effects of the establishment of pilot free trade zones: Evidence from Chinese resource‑based enterprises. Environmental Science and Pollution Research,2023,30:21384-21403.
33	WU C, SU N, GUO W, et al. Import competition and the improvement in pollutant discharge from heterogeneous enterprises: Evidence from China. Journal of Environmental Management,2022,310:114809.
34	邓仲良,张可云.中国经济增长的空间分异为何存在?——一个空间经济学的解释.经济研究,2020,55(4):20-36.
	DENG Z, ZHANG K. Why does the spatial differentiation of China's economic growth exist?An interpretation of spatial economics. Economic Research Journal,2020,55(4):20-36.
35	马秉鑫,金哲松,杨军.设立自贸试验区改善城市碳排放了吗?求是学刊,2023,50(3):82-95.
	MA B, JIN Z, YANG J. Has the establishment of the pilot free trade zone improved urban carbon emission?Seeking Truth, 2023,50(3):82-95.
36	张兵兵,周君婷,闫志俊.低碳城市试点政策与全要素能源效率提升——来自三批次试点政策实施的准自然实验.经济评论,2021(5):32-49.
	ZHANG B, ZHOU J, YAN Z. Low-carbon city policies and total factor energy efficiency improvement: Quasi-natural experiment from the implementation of three batches of pilot policies. Economic Review, 2021(5):32-49.
37	毛显强,邢有凯,高玉冰,等.温室气体与大气污染物协同控制效应评估与规划.中国环境科学,2021,41(7):3390-3398.
	MAO X, XING Y, GAO Y. Study on GHGs and air pollutants co-control: Assessment and planning. China Environmental Science, 2021,41(7):3390-3398.
38	吴建新,郭智勇.基于连续性动态分布方法的中国碳排放收敛分析.统计研究,2016,33(1):54-60.
	WU J, GUO Z. Research on the convergence of carbon dioxide emissions in China: A continuous dynamic distribution approach. Statistical Research,2016,33(1):54-60.
39	杜传忠,侯佳妮."去工业化"对中国地区经济增长的影响——基于门槛效应的分析.现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2021,41(9):3-19.
	DU C, HOU J. Impact of deindustrialization on China's regional economic growth: Analysis based on threshold effect. Modern Finance and Economics-Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, 2021,41(9):3-19.
40	LI T, WANG Y, ZHAO D. Environmental Kuznets Curve in China: new evidence from dynamic panel analysis. Energy policy,2016,91:138-147.
41	宋弘,孙雅洁,陈登科.政府空气污染治理效应评估——来自中国"低碳城市"建设的经验研究.管理世界,2019,35(6):95-108.
	SONG H, SUN Y, CHEN D. Assessment for the government air pollution control policy: Empirical evidence from "Low-carbon City" construction in China. Journal of Management World, 2019,35(6):95-108.
42	张军,闫东升,冯宗宪,等.自贸区设立能够有效促进经济增长吗?——基于双重差分方法的动态视角研究.经济问题探索,2018(11):125-133.
	ZHANG J, YAN D, FENG Z. Can free trade zone effectively promote economic growth?: A DID model dynamic analysis perspective. Inquiry into Economic Issues,2018(11):125-133.
43	LI S, LIU J, KONG Y. Pilot free trade zones and Chinese port-listed companies performance: An empirical research based on quasi-natural experiment. Transport Policy,2021,111:125-137.
44	郭丰,杨上广,柴泽阳.知识产权示范城市、知识产权保护与企业创新——基于中国工业企业的微观证据. 审计与经济研究,2022,37(5):117-127.
	GUO F, YANG S, CHAI Z. Intellectual property model city, intellectual property protection and enterprise innovation: Based on the micro-evidence of Chinese industrial enterprises. Journal of Audit & Economics,2022,37(5):117-127.
45	CHAGAS A, AZZONI C, ALMEIDA A. A spatial differences-in-differences analysis of the impact of sugarcane production on respiratory diseases. Regional Science and Urban Economics,2016,59:24-36.
46	张明,王巧瑜,张鹭,等.国家高新区提升了城市绿色全要素生产率了吗?——基于空间DID方法.系统工程理论与实践,2023,43(9):2467-2483.
	ZHANG M, WANG Q, ZHANG L. Has the national high-tech zones increased the urban green total factor productivity?: Based on the spatial DID analysis. Systems Engineering-Theory Practice, 2023,43(9):2467-2483.
47	曹清峰.国家级新区对区域经济增长的带动效应——基于70大中城市的经验证据. 中国工业经济, 2020(7): 43-60.
	CAO Q. Driving effects of national new zone on regional economic growth: Evidence from 70 cities of China. China Industrial Economics, 2020(7): 43-60.

变量分类	符号	观测值	单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	lnCO₂	4 230	万吨	6.075 7	1.160 6	2.116 8	10.798 8
被解释变量	lnE	4 230	吨	10.826 0	1.114 4	5.904 7	14.724 4
解释变量	DID	4 230	—	0.044 9	0.207 1	0.000 0	1.000 0
控制变量	lnpgdp	4 230	元	10.544 3	0.766 4	8.125 8	13.185 1
	lnpopu	4 230	万人	5.879 7	0.697 1	2.898 1	8.136 2
	lngov	4 230	%	2.828 5	0.455 7	1.449 8	5.000 7
	lninv	4 230	%	4.321 0	0.563 1	0.040 0	6.581 6
	lnele	4 230	亿千瓦时	4.813 7	0.927 6	0.994 9	7.467 2
	lnedu	4 230	人	4.707 8	1.002 1	0.693 1	7.165 5
	lnfin	4 230	%	5.366 7	0.428 9	4.025 4	7.664 0
	lncons	4 230	元	9.500 8	0.831 7	6.025 7	12.019 5
机制变量	patent	4 230	万件	0.547 1	1.516 8	0.000 5	27.917 7
	dlabor	4 230	—	0.565 9	0.141 3	0.156 0	0.955 4
	fdi	4 230	百亿元	0.601 5	1.440 1	7.20e^-06	21.758 3

变量分类	符号	观测值	单位	均值	标准差	最小值	最大值
被解释变量	lnCO₂	4 230	万吨	6.075 7	1.160 6	2.116 8	10.798 8
被解释变量	lnE	4 230	吨	10.826 0	1.114 4	5.904 7	14.724 4
解释变量	DID	4 230	—	0.044 9	0.207 1	0.000 0	1.000 0
控制变量	lnpgdp	4 230	元	10.544 3	0.766 4	8.125 8	13.185 1
	lnpopu	4 230	万人	5.879 7	0.697 1	2.898 1	8.136 2
	lngov	4 230	%	2.828 5	0.455 7	1.449 8	5.000 7
	lninv	4 230	%	4.321 0	0.563 1	0.040 0	6.581 6
	lnele	4 230	亿千瓦时	4.813 7	0.927 6	0.994 9	7.467 2
	lnedu	4 230	人	4.707 8	1.002 1	0.693 1	7.165 5
	lnfin	4 230	%	5.366 7	0.428 9	4.025 4	7.664 0
	lncons	4 230	元	9.500 8	0.831 7	6.025 7	12.019 5
机制变量	patent	4 230	万件	0.547 1	1.516 8	0.000 5	27.917 7
	dlabor	4 230	—	0.565 9	0.141 3	0.156 0	0.955 4
	fdi	4 230	百亿元	0.601 5	1.440 1	7.20e^-06	21.758 3

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
变量	lnCO₂	lnCO₂	lnE	lnE
DID	－0.213^***(－3.480)	－0.205^***(－3.370)	－0.230^***(－2.990)	－0.231^***(－3.060)
lnpgdp		0.497^***(4.080)		0.086(0.890)
lnpopu		0.586^***(3.430)		0.150(0.730)
lngov		－0.014(－0.150)		0.006(0.060)
lninv		－0.062(－1.620)		－0.034(－0.950)
lnele		0.172^**(2.170)		0.226^***(3.370)
lnedu		－0.001(－0.040)		0.003(0.090)
lnfin		0.123(0.910)		0.006(0.070)
lncons		0.039(0.630)		0.042(0.680)
常数项	5.745^***(276.850)	－3.994^*(－1.760)	11.371^***(421.340)	8.332^***(3.860)
City	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year	YES	YES	YES	YES
N	4 230	4 230	4 230	4 230
adj.R²	0.259	0.296	0.729	0.733

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
变量	lnCO₂	lnCO₂	lnE	lnE
DID	－0.213^***(－3.480)	－0.205^***(－3.370)	－0.230^***(－2.990)	－0.231^***(－3.060)
lnpgdp		0.497^***(4.080)		0.086(0.890)
lnpopu		0.586^***(3.430)		0.150(0.730)
lngov		－0.014(－0.150)		0.006(0.060)
lninv		－0.062(－1.620)		－0.034(－0.950)
lnele		0.172^**(2.170)		0.226^***(3.370)
lnedu		－0.001(－0.040)		0.003(0.090)
lnfin		0.123(0.910)		0.006(0.070)
lncons		0.039(0.630)		0.042(0.680)
常数项	5.745^***(276.850)	－3.994^*(－1.760)	11.371^***(421.340)	8.332^***(3.860)
City	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year	YES	YES	YES	YES
N	4 230	4 230	4 230	4 230
adj.R²	0.259	0.296	0.729	0.733

变量	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
变量	交乘项	lnCO₂	lnE	lnCO₂	lnE	lnCO₂	lnE
DID	－4.809^***	－0.178^**	－0.181^*	－0.216^***	－0.245^***	－0.203^***	－0.230^***
DID	(－5.410)	(－2.460)	(－1.880)	(－3.430)	(－3.230)	(－3.120)	(－2.800)
常数项	－63.630^**	－3.519	9.060^***	－4.163^*	8.124^***	－3.845^*	8.560^***
常数项	(－2.170)	(－1.600)	(3.970)	(－1.880)	(3.770)	(－1.670)	(3.940)
控制变量	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
City	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
Year	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES	YES
N	4 230	3 512	3 512	4 230	4 230	4 170	4 170
adj.R²	0.198	0.271	0.746	0.300	0.736	0.299	0.729