主管单位:中国科学技术协会
主办单位:中国地理学会
承办单位:华东师范大学

世界地理研究 ›› 2016, Vol. ›› Issue (4): 111-121.

• 产业与布局 • 上一篇    下一篇

改革开放以来中国经济空间发展格局演变及其驱动力分析

傅钰1,钟业喜1,冯兴华2   

  1. 1. 江西师范大学地理与环境学院
    2. 江西师范大学瑶湖校区
  • 收稿日期:2015-10-13 修回日期:2016-01-04 出版日期:2016-08-16 发布日期:2016-08-11
  • 通讯作者: 傅钰
  • 基金资助:

    鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学)开放基金资助项目

Since the Reform and Opening of China Economic Development Pattern Evolution and the Driver Analysis

  • Received:2015-10-13 Revised:2016-01-04 Online:2016-08-16 Published:2016-08-11

摘要: 在Mann-Kendall方法基础上对1978年以来中国经济发展进行突变点分析。结合传统数理统计方法及空间分析模型,在ArcGIS、GeoDA等软件支持下,以省级行政区为研究单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,从时间、空间、关联性、驱动因子等视角对改革开放以来我国经济发展状况进行深入分析。结果表明:我国经济总体呈快速发展趋势,东中西部发展差异显著,但总体差异逐步减小;我国经济空间分布呈现出东北-西南格局,主半轴方向上表现为收缩趋势,辅半轴方向上则为波动扩张格局;我国经济发展高水平区不断增多,低水平区不断减少,最终消失,总体经济水平得到显著提高;根据关联性分析得出扩散型主要集中于东部地区,坍塌型主要分布于中部地区,东西差异依旧明显;改革开放以来推动我国经济发展主要是以消费为主,投资为辅的“双轮驱动”逐步转向由投资、出口、消费协调推动,区域协调发展势头良好。

Abstract: Through a point mutation analysis about the China's economic development since 1978 on the basis of the Mann-Kendall method. Combining traditional methods of mathematical statistics and spatial analysis model, in the support of some software such as ArcGIS, GeoDa, in provincial-level administrative unit, per capita GDP as measure indices to do a deeply study about our country’s economic development since the reform and opening period through the time, space, relevance, driving factors and other perspectives. The results showed that: the rapid development of Chinese economy showed a rapid development trend overall, regions of east, central and western which developed significantly different, but the overall difference gradually reduced; China's economy showing the spatial distribution of northeast - southwest pattern. Direction of the main axle performed a contraction trend, and direction of the auxiliary axle performed a fluctuate and expand pattern. The high level of economic development zones are increasing, and its lowest level area are declining, and eventually disappear, the economic of our country has been significantly improved; According to association analysis, the diffusion mainly concentrated in the eastern region, the collapse is mainly distributed in the central region, differences between East and West still exist; We can see China's economic development is primarily a consumption-based, investment, supplemented by "wheeled" gradually shifted from investment, exports, consumption driven coordination, the regional development have a coordinated momentum.